That’s the purpose of the 12-team College Football Playoff. Inclusion. Interest. A box so deep you’ll want high boots.
From Arizona to Auburn and Utah to UTSA, put yourself in a playoff position that opens the door to historic possibilities.
Of course, there will be some familiar faces, as the SEC and Big Ten have combined to earn 8 of the top 10 playoff names, and that trend will most likely continue. According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, 12 of the top 15 teams come from those two leagues. The Allstate Playoff Predictor gives the SEC a 53% chance of winning the national title and the Big Ten a 32% chance of winning the national title.
But they are in company.
There are 30 groups. . . 30 groups– with at least a 10% chance of winning the CFP this year, according to ESPN Analytics. Below are those 30 groups ranked in order of percentage of playoff chances. You will also find your percentage chance of winning the national name according to ESPN Analytics.
The CFP’s variety committee, however, is made up of thirteen people who disagree with the computers.
So how will they view those suitors? You will also see it below.
FPI chances of making the playoffs: 79. 1% | Winning the title: 21%
Dinich’s Take: Even with a lot of NFL skill lost, this team will still be loaded. It starts offensively with the return of quarterback Carson Beck and his coordinator, Mike Bobo. They have one of the most productive offensive lines in the world. country to paint with. Defensively, Georgia has intensity at linebacker and a star in Mykel Williams, and safety Malaki Stark is one of the most productive in the country. With such a busy schedule, it’s probably unrealistic to think Georgia will remain undefeated, but it doesn’t have to be. They just want to win the SEC, which will ensure them a first-round bye. Georgia is smart enough to do it.
Toughest test: October 19 in Texas. Georgia and Texas are the only groups in the country projected to rank among the top five on offense and defense. This is now an SEC game, which has an effect on the convention championship race. According to ESPN Analytics, no game will have a greater impact on the SEC race than this one, and it also ranks among the most productive overall this season. Ultimately, this matchup will affect how groups are seeded in the 12-team field. Any team that does not win its league will have to win 4 games outright to win the national title, and the SEC champion would only have to win three.
What the committee will like: The hard way wins. Georgia plays only one real home game in the first five weeks (including an impartial site game opposite Clemson and an open date). The Bulldogs also won’t play in Athens in Weeks 8-11 (includes two road games, a second standalone game against Florida and some other open date). Last season, when Texas traveled to Tuscaloosa and beat Alabama by double digits in Week 2, it resonated with the committee on selection day, in part because of where it happened: on the Tide field. Respect for road wins likely wouldn’t replace the 12-team format, and Georgia is likely to have plenty, none tougher than Oct. 19 in Austin.
What the committee might not like: It’s like looking to locate a streak on a window that has just been cleaned. You can move around and look at it from other angles, but you’re picky. Until Georgia faces the ACC and is 0-2, it will be difficult for the committee to locate faults. If Georgia doesn’t make it to the SEC championship game, and currently has a league-best 33 percent chance of winning the convention, only then will the rest of its schedule be examined.
FPI’s playoff odds: 76% | Winning the title: 12. 8%
Dinich’s take: Oregon will make the playoffs, either as a Big Ten champion or through an overall spot, but until proven otherwise, the Ducks will rank below Texas and Ohio State (if they don’t beat the Buckeyes). Oregon is in a position to make the playoffs with third-year coach Dan Lanning, and there will be a graceful transition at quarterback, where Dillon Gabriel will succeed Bo Nix. But it will arguably be the toughest schedule the Ducks have ever faced with Lanning, with a complicated mix of old Pac-12 rivals and new Big Ten foes.
The toughest test: Oct. 12 vs. Ohio State. The home game opposite the Buckeyes will reveal just how seriously Oregon should be taken as a national name finisher. . . and as a finisher for the Big Ten. There’s a smart chance they will. to be among the top five groups in the preseason. Since there are no divisions in the new Big Ten, the top two groups will face off in the convention naming game. It’s conceivable they’ll end up there, but they’ll still face Michigan, which will give the loser of that game less room for error.
What the committee will like: Big Ten road wins against ranked opponents. It’s November when Oregon will feel like part of the Big Ten, when it travels to Ann Arbor and Camp Randall Stadium in Wisconsin. With home games opposite those of Maryland and Washington November is the month that deserves to define the Ducks’ place in the playoffs.
What the committee might not like: a Sept. 7 House loss to Boise State. It could complicate matters in the committee meeting room if Boise State wins the Mountain West convention and is the top-ranked champion in the five-convention organization. . This is a very credible scenario, as ESPN Analytics predicts that Boise State will have the highest chance of representing the Group of Five in the PSC (17%). So. . . Does the face-to-face count? It depends on which committee member you ask. If Boise State and Oregon finish the normal season with a one-loss record and the same convention titles, will the committee rank the Broncos ahead of the Ducks even if Oregon has played a tougher schedule?What happens if Boise State remains undefeated? Right now, ESPN’s FPI predicts that Oregon will win every single game and Boise State will lose one, to the Ducks. But it only takes one upheaval to disappoint the committee’s thinking.
REIT’s chances of making the playoffs: 67. 8% | Winning the title: 11. 4%
Dinich’s take: Texas will be in the CFP for a moment directly into the season, this time as a member of the SEC, but the Longhorns will be well ahead of Oregon before the season begins. Texas ranks 26th in the FBS in returning offensive production (73%), according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly. The Longhorns could have the most productive quarterback room in the country with starter Quinn Ewers returning and Arch Manning awaiting his turn. They’ll also have a veteran offensive line leading the way, and the coaching staff made smart use of the movement portal beyond the offseason.
Toughest test: October 19 against Georgia. The Longhorns will have merit on the home field and they will want it. ESPN’s FPI projects Texas to win every single game barring this one. This is necessarily a draw, as Georgia has done. a 52. 5% chance of winning. It’s also the second straight week of strong feelings and competition, as Texas faces rival Oklahoma on October 12. The Longhorns will have already traveled to Michigan in week two. If Texas loses to OU or Michigan, the home game against Georgia becomes even more critical to the Longhorns’ playoff hopes.
What the committee will like: Another win against a CFP-ranked competitor. Texas saw how valuable a head-to-head victory can be in the committee meeting room last year after beating SEC champion Alabama in Tuscaloosa. If Texas can do the same against a CFP-ranked competitor. Georgia, and the Bulldogs still win the SEC, it will be difficult for the committee to throw out the final results of the game if the records are identical. That can also come into play with a win at Michigan or backing the Sooners. However, having wins against the committee’s top 12 teams will influence his grade heading into draft day.
What the committee probably wouldn’t like: another defense that opposes the mediocre pass. That probably wouldn’t prevent Texas from participating in the CFP (it didn’t last season), but it could save the Longhorns from winning it. Last season, Texas ranked 113th in FBS against the pass, consistently allowing 254. 4 yards per game. In the CFP semifinal of the Allstate Sugar Bowl, Washington passed for 430 yards against Texas. OU racked up more than 280 yards in its regular-season win over the Longhorns. These are the kind of glaring weaknesses that are pointed out in the boardroom, especially when comparing similar groups.
REIT chances of making the playoffs: 67. 2% | Winning the title: 10. 5%
Dinich’s Take: This team will be in the CFP and deserves to be the favorite to win the Big Ten, but it also deserves to be No. 2 this preseason in Georgia. The question is rarely whether the Buckeyes will get in, but how far they can run. Ohio State is loaded with skill on both sides of the ball, and last season’s defense made huge strides, ranking a sensible top 3 in scoring and overall defense. Coach Ryan Day has assembled a veteran team with plenty of familiarity and added the hiring of former UCLA coach Chip Kelly to call the offensive plays. K-State move Will Howard is the most experienced option at quarterback, having become the Wildcats’ all-time leader in touchdown passes (48). In addition to Howard, the offense will get a boost thanks to the move of Ole Miss running back Quinshon Judkins.
Toughest test: October 12 at Orepassn. Yes, there’s no bigger game than The Game, but having to move to Autzen Stadium and beat a team bigger than Michigan will be harder than avoiding a home loss to the Wolverines. The game at Orepassn will likely be Ohio State’s first of the season against a ranked opponent and will have an effect on the Big Ten standings. It’s possible that the two groups will meet again in the convention’s naming game, opening up the option for the October winner to score a head-to-head win against the eventual Big Ten champion, which would bode well for them and the Big Ten.
What the committee will like: a convincing House victory over rival Michigan. (Well, not everyone on the committee will like that. Michigan athletic director Warde Manuel is the group’s president this fall and will abstain from any discussion and vote on the Wolverines. )One of the factors through the committee, however, is the effects of unusual non-opponents, and Oregon and Texas will play Michigan this fall. The committee will acknowledge the differences between home and away games, but will still compare the contenders’ performances against the Wolverines. Ohio State hasn’t lost 4 games directly in this rivalry since 1988-91. Depending on how Ohio State faces Oregon and Penn State, this game can mean a lot more than bragging rights. Again.
What the committee won’t like: the calendar outside the convention. Three games directly opposed to Akron, Western Michigan and Marshall probably wouldn’t help Ohio State if it’s a close debate with some other team that has played a more potent unconventional schedule. lineup, such as Texas (vs. Michigan) or Georgia (vs. Clemson). However, that will only be possible if Ohio State doesn’t win the Big Ten, because in the new 12-team field, the top-five ranked convention champions are guaranteed a spot in the CFP. That would be part of the discussion involving all teams on draft day, but it could also keep Ohio State in the top rankings if the Buckeyes lose to Oregon. If that happens, the tension will be on Ohio State to win at Penn State on Nov. 2, likely the only other ranked opponent they’ll face before the CFP’s first qualifying.
REIT’s chances of making playoffs: 59. 1% | Winning the title: 6. 6%
Dinich’s take: Penn State has a wonderful chance of making the playoffs, especially as an overall team, but No. 5 is too high for the Nittany Lions right now. PSU can also be the fourth-best team in the Big Ten, Ohio State, Oregon and perhaps protect national champion Michigan. The Nittany Lions’ running game wasn’t as explosive last season and fell short of expectations, while the passing game was disappointing. Once again, coach James Franklin has new offensive and defensive coordinators. The good news for PSU is that it doesn’t want to beat Ohio State to succeed in the Big Ten championship game, as the league has eliminated its divisions. The bad news is that he would possibly have to beat Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game, if the Nittany Lions can pull it off. Penn State has a season-defining stretch against USC, Wisconsin, Ohio State and Washington.
Toughest test: Nov. 2 vs. Ohio State. The Nittany Lions are 1-7 when hosting the Buckeyes since 2007, their worst home record against any team in that span (with more than twice as many home losses as any other team).
What the committee will like: Road wins against West Virginia, USC and Wisconsin. Classified or not, neither of those groups is a smooth ride, and everyone in this committee meeting room knows it. If PSU can go 3-0 against those teams, it can help make up for a home loss to Ohio State and likely give the Nittany Lions a spot in the bracket without a Big Ten title. That might even give them some breathing room in November, but that largely depends on where USC and Wisconsin are ranked, and assumes West Virginia has another respectable season. PSU wants to place a signature victory somewhere on its agenda.
What the committee might not like: a misstep in September. Penn State will play just one road game in the first six weeks of the season (the open date is Sept. 14). The Nittany Lions are unlikely to play a ranked opponent all month, with games against West Virginia, Bowling Green, Kent State and Illinois. If WVU can pull off a disappointment at home in the season opener, Penn State might need a 14-team CFP sooner rather than later.
FPI odds of making the playoffs: 59. 1% | Winning the title: 4. 8%
Dinich’s take: Notre Dame has the prospect of a special third-year season under coach Marcus Freeman, and ESPN’s FPI predicts the Irish will win all of their games. According to ESPN Analytics, Notre Dame is tied with Oregon for most productivity. chance (16%) of reaching the playoffs undefeated. Freeman lured former Notre Dame player Mike Denbrock away from LSU, where he led the nation’s top-scoring offense last season. The staff has also called up former Duke quarterback Riley Leonard and the defensive line. They deserve to be one of the team’s strengths. Notre Dame will no longer feel the pressure of needing an undefeated season to clinch a playoff spot. The independent Irish cannot get a bye in the first round – those places are reserved for the top 4 seeds. convention champions; However, Notre Dame has plenty of opportunities to impress the committee and earn an at-large bid.
Toughest test: August 31 at Texas A
What the committee will like: A win over the ACC champions. Notre Dame will host Florida State on November 9 and the Seminoles are in position to repeat as ACC champions. Because Notre Dame is not in a convention, a regular-season win against the eventual ACC champion would be the most productive to impress the committee. Last year, one of the reasons Texas’ victory at Alabama continued to resonate on Selection Day was because Alabama ultimately won the SEC. The committee would most likely view a Notre Dame win against FSU the same way, and if Florida State wins the ACC, the Irish would get a head-to-head victory against a team that would be guaranteed a spot in the playoffs. However, thanks to the new format, Notre Dame may be seeded ahead of FSU, but not ahead of the Noles, as the top four seeded convention champions get the top four seeds and byes in the first round.
What the committee probably wouldn’t like: another confusing defeat. In each of the last two seasons, Notre Dame has lost at least one game it shouldn’t have lost. In Freeman’s first season, it was the home team’s Week 2 loss to Marshall. Last year, the Irish blew an early lead against Louisville, a game they thought they had won. Notre Dame has more room to maneuver in the 12-team format, however, the committee will still look for the Irish to beat their unseeded contenders and pick up some big wins. It’s one thing to lose on the road to rival USC, and another to stumble at home against Louisville (No. 28 in the SP+ rankings).
REIT’s chances of making the playoffs: 57. 2% | Winning the title: 8. 5%
Dinich’s take: Even though legendary coach Nick Saban has retired, there’s still enough skill in the program for coach Kalen DeBoer to lead the Tide into the CFP. Despite being new to Tuscaloosa, DeBoer has grown accustomed to winning in each and every one of them. and at every stop, compiling a 104-12 record in his last 3 works. It will be difficult to return to the SEC championship game, but Alabama can still earn a spot in the 12-team box, even if it is third. -the best team in the league of Georgia and Texas. ESPN’s FPI gives Tide at least a 51% chance of winning each and every match, except. . .
Toughest test: September 28 against Georgia. Alabama 8-2 against the Bulldogs under Saban, and Georgia hasn’t won in Tuscaloosa since 2007, Saban’s first season. Don’t count DeBoer against Kirby Smart. DeBoer is 12-2 against AP-rated contests throughout his career.
What the committee will like: An unforgettable November. It was there that DeBoer would be fully indoctrinated into the culture of Alabama and the SEC, with road convention games in November against LSU and Oklahoma and hosting the Iron Bowl against Auburn. If Alabama can go 3-0 behind those teams, it would be a lock for the CFP, even with a home loss to Georgia and no SEC name. In this scenario, the Tide can end up with two losses (against Georgia in the regular season and again in the SEC Championship Game). Alabama can also earn an at-large bid with two regular-season losses and no appearance in the SEC naming game; However, the committee would be more lenient if it is a road loss to a top-seeded opponent than, say, a home loss to South Carolina.
What the committee likely wouldn’t like: Another head-to-head loss to a CFP contender, without an SEC name to compensate. This may not necessarily be the Tide (see situation above), but it may simply put them in a precarious position if the overall spot the committee is considering comes down to Bama or whatever SEC team they’re against. lost. Last year was the toughest final grading the variety committee has ever made, and Alabama made things confusing by beating No. 1-ranked Georgia to win the SEC. The SEC name helped Bama finish in the top four with Texas. If the Tide lost at Tennessee, LSU or Oklahoma, that result could simply be the difference between the final ratings and the Selection Day ratings. If the groups have the same records, the committee will most likely respect the face-to-face results.
REIT chances of making the playoffs: 37. 3% | Winning the title: 2. 2%
Dinich’s take: Mizzou can surely make the playoffs, but that’s based more on a forgiving schedule than evidence that he can fight for the national title. The Tigers don’t deserve to be ranked ahead of the 18th Ole Miss, let alone 10 spots. Mizzou could be the fifth most productive team in the SEC, Georgia, Texas, Ole Miss and Alabama. Will five SEC teams come in? Perhaps, however, questions about the strength of the schedule will arise in the committee’s boardroom, especially if Mizzou loses to Alabama and Oklahoma. Still, the schedule is manageable enough that Mizzou can go unbeaten into October and a 10-2 or higher run is rarely an unreasonable expectation. The Tigers transmit one of the most productive catcher-quarterback combinations in the country with Brady Cook and Luther Burden III. Missouri also doesn’t have to worry about wasting a face-to-face debate against Texas, Ole Señorita, or Georgia.
The toughest test: Oct. 26 in Alabama. ESPN’s REIT gives Alabama a 70% chance of winning, the only game where it doesn’t give Mizzou more than a 50% chance. It will be Missouri’s last game before the variety committee releases its first rating of the season. This will be the most important clue about how serious the Tigers deserve to be in the CFP race, with many elements also revealed on Oct. 5 in Texas A.
What the committee will like: style points. The committee doesn’t want teams to increase the score in an unsportsmanlike way, but it does want them to turn out to be the best team against unranked competitors. And September will be full of that for Mizzou. Missouri doesn’t play an away game until Oct. 5 at Texas A
What the committee won’t like: No victories. With four games directly at home in September and none against Georgia, Texas or Ole Miss, it’s not exactly the most daunting schedule. Mizzou’s maximum productive opportunities to impress the committee will be on October 26. in Alabama and two weeks later against Oklahoma. There’s a week off to prepare the Sooners.
REIT’s chances of making the playoffs: 36. 9% | Winning the title: 2. 7%
Dinich’s take: Tennessee will be better than last year, both offensively and defensively, but they can still be a 3-loss team in the bubble because the schedule is so tough. Expectations are high for quarterback Nico Iamaleava, who will be surrounded by his ability. and an offensive line that has 3 starters. The defensive line is the strength on that side, however, the secondary struggled last year and will be rebuilt this season. Can the Vols win at OU, at home against Bama and at Georgia? ESPN The FPI says they are 0-3 against this lineup.
The most difficult test: on November 16 in Georgia. At this point in the season, Iamaleava will no longer be a rookie, but will the Vols’ pass defense be in position for Carson Beck?Last season, Beck totaled 298 yards, 3 touchdowns and no interceptions in a 38-10 win.
What will please the committee: The unbiased route/site wins. If the Vols need to impress the panel, they will have to do it on the road, where they will face some of their toughest competitors. Tennessee could pick up a non-conference win against a ranked ACC opponent on Sept. 7 if it can beat NC State in Duke’s Mayo Classic in Charlotte, North Carolina. However, if he doesn’t win this game, two of his most productive opportunities to make up for it are Sept. 21 at Oklahoma and Nov. 16 at Georgia.
What the committee probably wouldn’t like: an inexplicable loss for most of the forgivable. In 2022, South Carolina stunned Tennessee in November with a 63-38 victory, necessarily getting rid of the CFP’s Vols. Last year, another loss to rival Florida ruined what deserved to have been an unbeaten start. The problem in each of those two seasons was that those setbacks came more than other more respectable losses. The selection committee will continue to keep Tennessee in mind this year if it suffers a loss or two to the ranked conflicting games, especially on the road, but serious losses have been difficult for teams to overcome. If the Vols want to succeed in an even bigger field, they want to win the games they’re supposed to win.
FPI chances of making the playoffs: 36. 6% | Winning the title: 2. 8%
Dinich’s take: Oklahoma will be better in Brent Venables’ third season, especially on defense, which is his strong suit, but the schedule is so busy that the improvement may not be reflected in the Sooners’ record. With trips to Auburn, Ole Miss, Missouri and LSU, it’s moderate to think OU will enjoy multiple losses. There are also questions about the offense, which replaces the starting five on the line and will promote quarterback Jackson Arnold, whose experience is limited to cleaning up duty.
Toughest test: October 12 against Texas. The stakes are high now, as this SEC showdown will affect the rankings, rankings, and likely the CFP ratings on selection day. Last year, the Sooners won during the normal season, but Texas won the Big 12. It’s possible that the same thing will happen in the SEC. La difference is that head-to-head victory can be significant in the variety committee boardroom if OU is vying for an overall position. A normal season win against the SEC champions could help the committee forgive some other normal season loss.
What the committee will like: a record winner in November. OU plays two of its last three road games: Nov. 9 at Missouri and Nov. 30 at LSU. Between the two there is a home game opposite Alabama. (The Sooners open the month at home against Maine. ) If Oklahoma is still in the running for one of the 12 spots through November, the committee will have to see to it finish no worse than 3-1 this month, unless through a miracle. OU enters November undefeated. Then obviously there would be some wiggle room to lose one or two of those last 3 games. If Oklahoma loses a game or two before then, the committee will look to finish strong in the Sooners’ season-defining stretch rather than what will be three straight ranked warring games.
What the committee won’t like: a Sept. 14 home loss to Tulane. It’s the kind of disappointment that can be devastating in a 12-team organization. If Tulane wins the American Athletic Conference and finishes fifth best on the committee. . . The 12th-ranked team can beat the No. 12 ranked team for a spot in the CFP. (ESPN’s REIT gives Tulane the second-best chance, 17. 7%, of winning 31. 3% of AAC UTSA. )That 12th position and lost the head-to-head to Tulane may cost the Sooners their position within the PSC. Last year, Oklahoma was the committee’s 12th team, but the 23rd Liberty, the C-USA champion, would have eliminated the Sooners.
REIT chances of making the playoffs: 35. 9% | Winning the title: 2. 5%
Dinich’s take: As the preseason favorite to win the ACC again, FSU has an even better chance of qualifying for the CFP. The five highest-ranked convention champions are guaranteed a playoff spot, so FSU’s unprecedented exclusion last year as an undefeated power champion likely won’t be repeated. The Seminoles will be one of the toughest groups in the ACC, and they answered the committee’s biggest question last year – the quarterback position – with the addition of move DJ Uiagalelei.
Toughest test: November 9th at Notre-Dame. ESPN’s FPI gives the Irish a 70. 5% chance of winning at home. It’s part of a tough schedule that ranks 31st in the country, and while a loss probably wouldn’t take down the Seminoles, a win could go a long way toward earning an at-large bid if they so desire.
What the committee will like: a 2-0 record against Notre Dame and Florida. Even when Florida wasn’t ranked last year, the committee liked FSU’s win over its rival enough to keep the Noles in the top four, without their starting quarterback. It’s a move that gave false hope to the CFP at FSU ahead of the ACC championship game against Louisville, but also evidence of the importance the committee places on wins against SEC teams, even the most mediocre ones. FSU doesn’t play NC State, so beyond Clemson it has to hope the committee qualifies some of its other ACC opponents, such as Duke, Miami and/or UNC. Otherwise, wins against the Irish and Gators will be enough.
What the committee might not like: The shocking situation of yet another exclusion from the state of Florida. The committee’s worst nightmare, as if it could be worse than last season, would be for FSU to beat Memphis at home on Sept. 14 and for the Tigers to be their fifth-highest-ranked convention champion, knocking off the state’s No. 12 seed. from Florida. In this very specific situation, FSU would not win the ACC, having lost some other game along the way.
REIT’s chances of making the playoffs: 28. 5% | Winning the title: 1. 7%
Dinich’s take: Michigan is flying around the bubble, and it would be a significant drop for the program to gain a national name and then not qualify for a 12-team playoff field. However, this is not last year’s team. It also doesn’t have its CFP-winning head coach, Jim Harbaugh. Michigan ranks 126th in the FBS in transfer production (40%), according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly. Michigan will still be incredibly competitive in the Big Ten, but the most likely situation is that they will have to fight for one of the overall spots. That can be tricky if the Wolverines go 0-3 against Texas, Orepassn and Ohio State, and that’s precisely what ESPN’s FPI projects.
The toughest test: Nov. 30 at Ohio State. As smart as Oregon and Texas are this year, nothing will compare to the challenge of beating the Buckeyes on their home turf, especially when Ohio State is so desperate to suffer a fourth straight loss to Michigan. The . ESPN offers Ohio State a 74. 2% chance of winning.
What the committee will like: This schedule. Finally. After back-to-back seasons with more boring lineups, Michigan has a schedule designed to impress the committee. With a Week 2 home game opposite Texas and warring sides USC, Washington, Oregon and Ohio State, Michigan has more room for error. With the exception of USC, each of those warring parties finished in the top 10 in the final AP vote last year. Having to travel to Washington for a convention game, as well as a vacation on the road to compete against Ohio State to end the season, will help make up for having only four road games.
What the committee might not like: No November wins. Two of Michigan’s most productive opportunities to impress the variety committee will come in November, unlike Oregon and Ohio State. If the Wolverines don’t win at least one of those games, their season will end on a high note, as the committee likely wouldn’t factor in wins over Indiana and Northwestern as an explanation for the rise in the standings.
REIT chances of making the playoffs: 26. 9% | Winning the title: 1. 4%
Dinich’s take: With a strong chance of going 10-2, Clemson will be right on the CFP bubble, if not collapse like last year. The Tigers have a manageable schedule, with conflicting parties of enough quality to beat Appalachian State and The Citadel. Clemson faces NC State, Florida State and Louisville, all groups that may be among the top 25 most sensible in the CFP. Expectations are also higher for Virginia Tech this fall, and a Nov. 9 win at Blacksburg may be more significant in the juntas. de room than it is now.
Toughest test: Aug. 31 against Georgia. This is rarely going to make or break Clemson’s CFP hopes, but it will reveal early on how close the Tigers are to regaining national relevance under coach Dabo Swinney. The opening of the season is exclusive because the groups have all summer to prepare for their opponent. How the game plays out, and whether it will be close or lopsided, may only be part of the committee’s discussions throughout the season if the Tigers are a contender. A Clemson win absolutely changes the conversation. If Clemson needs to compete for CFP, its offense led by coordinator Garrett Riley and quarterback Cade Klubnik will want to show progress, starting in Game 1.
What the committee will like: A 2-0 record against the SEC. Wins over Georgia and South Carolina would blow the committee away if the Gamecocks have a respectable season. Each year, the committee examines the feel and increased unpredictability of rivalry games. If Clemson can finish the season with wins in either game, it likely won’t want to win the ACC to earn a spot in the CFP as long as it avoids several upsets in between.
What the committee might not like: an 0-2 record against the SEC. It’s not that a two-loss Clemson team can’t earn a spot among the 12 teams, but it might not win a debate about its opposite resume. with some other contender with two defeats. That puts more pressure on Clemson to win the ACC in this specific scenario, which would secure the two-loss Tigers a spot on the field. If they don’t, the committee would compare wins over NC State, Florida State, Louisville, and Virginia Tech to a timeline such as. . . let’s say, Michigan, above.
REITs of making the playoffs: 25. 3% | Winning the national title: 1. 3%
Dinich’s take: LSU’s schedule is a double-edged sword because it’s riddled with opportunities to impress the variety committee opposed to elite competition, but those games can also have a total of 3 or more losses. No one, the committee added, knows yet what effect the convention’s realignment will have on how the organization foresees multiple losses in the face of more difficult timetables. LSU looks like a preseason bubble team, but it can climb particularly in the more sensible ratings if it can in an October that includes Ole Miss, Arkansas, Texas A
Toughest test: October 26 at Texas A
What the committee will like: a 2-0 record against the Big Ten. That’s right, Los Angeles schools are now part of the Big Ten, and LSU has a chance to beat USC and UCLA in September. LSU opens the season against USC at the Vegas Kickoff Classic and will host UCLA on Sept. 21. The nonconference matchups are just a snippet of a grueling schedule that also includes Oklahoma and the Swamp. If LSU does not win the SEC, a 2-0 record will be opposed. The Big Ten can help the committee praise the Tigers with a total offer on a team that hasn’t played as complicated as a non-conference schedule.
What the committee might not like: no reporting directorate wins. Each committee member has a stat sheet for each team and includes records at impartial sites and away games. If LSU does not beat USC in Las Vegas, its only other trips will be to South Carolina, Arkansas, Texas A
REIT’s chances of making the playoffs: 24% | Winning the title: 0. 9%
Dinich’s Take: Kansas has more light years than before, but does it have a better chance of making the CFP than Utah? What about State K? A rival they haven’t beaten since 2008? Pump the brakes. For the first time since 2009, the Jayhawks are coming off a bowl win, and ESPN’s FPI projects them to win every single game: Oct. 26 at. . . K-State. You want to get to 15th on this list before you find a team with less than a 1% chance of winning the national title. Kansas has earned this distinction.
Toughest test: Oct. 26 at K-State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Wildcats a 53. 6% chance of winning this game for the 16th straight time. Last year, Kansas allowed its rival to erase an 11-run deficit in the second half. However, the Jayhawks were betting on a former backup quarterback, in the position of injured starter Jalon Daniels and his repositioning, Jason Bean. If Daniels can stay healthy, Kansas could end its losing streak.
What the committee will like: Style points. With six road games, it’s not fair to say that this schedule is easy, but the truth is that there are no blockbuster matchups in the lineup. If Kansas wants to earn an overall spot, it wants to leave no doubt about its appearance and do so consistently. The selection committee is more inspired by wins against the CFP’s top 25 groups, but there’s respect in the room for beating a team in bowls, especially on the road in convincing style.
What the committee might not like: no Big 12 titles. If the Jayhawks win the new big 12, which the FPI says they will, they’ll be in it. If they don’t? The variety committee will question his schedule. Pop Quiz: Where’s Lindenwood?Lindenwood is apparently in Kansas for the Jayhawks’ season opener. They will then face Illinois and UNLV, the same team that Kansas beat in the Garanti Rate Bowl. If Kansas doesn’t win the Big 12, it has to wait for the variety committee to qualify. some of its conflicting parties at the convention, such as K-State, and it has to win those games.
REIT chances of making the playoffs: 21. 4% | Winning the title: 0. 7%
Dinich’s take: K-State will be ahead of rival Kansas until proven otherwise, and there will be no such gap between the Wildcats and Utah. K-State and Utah are the preseason favorites to win the Big 12, however, ESPN’s FPI gives Kansas the most productive chance to win the league (17. 4%). If K-State wins the conference, they will make the playoffs, but their chances will diminish, especially if they are fighting for an at-large berth, unless the Wildcats look consistently dominant and pick up the lead. multiple wins against seeded opponents.
Toughest test: Oct. 19 in West Virginia. ESPN’s FPI gives K-State a better than 50% chance of winning each of its games, but WVU’s is the lowest at 52. 5%. It’s an unforgiving position and coach Neal Brown’s program is on the rise.
What will please the committee: a signing in September. In 2023, the Wildcats failed to take advantage of some of their opportunities to impress the committee, posting close losses at Missouri, Oklahoma State and Texas. This year, K-State wants a strong start with home wins in September against Arizona and Oklahoma State, the two convention warring parties most likely to qualify. The variety committee also respects road wins, and the chance to beat Tulane on Sept. 7 may simply mean a win against the eventual American Athletic Conference champions. If K-State can have a smart September, it will give the Wildcats some much-needed breathing room as back-to-back trips to Colorado and West Virginia are trap games. Additionally, the Oct. 26 game against rival Kansas may make October more difficult than it looks on paper. If K-State makes the Big 12 name game but loses a close game to a ranked Utah team, the committee will need to see evidence that it is CFP material, and there’s a good chance the evidence will be available in September .
What the committee might not like: a Sept. 7 loss at Tulane. This can be a tricky solution for the committee if either organization wins their respective conventions, which is not a far-fetched scenario. Both organizations would be among the top five champions of the CFP convention, but which team would the committee rank higher?Would the organization honor the Sept. 7 head-to-head victory of the Green Wave and rank the AAC champion ahead of the Big 12 champion?This would have an effect on the ratings and give Tulane a first-round bye. If their records are the same, that may just happen, but Tulane will also travel to Oklahoma on Sept. 14. If K-State finishes with fewer losses, the committee may justify it as an explanation for why they ranked the Wildcats ahead of Tulane in despite the loss.
FPI of making the playoffs: 21% | Winning the national title: 1%
Dinich’s take: The Aggies’ CFP chances are no better than Ole Miss, which has its most productive team yet under coach Lane Kiffin, but Texas A&M is outside the CFP bubble as a top-25 player preseason teams on the limit. In fact, there is an explanation for the optimism, as the hires of coach Mike Elko and offensive coordinator Collin Klein have been home runs. However, it will take some time for them to close the gap with Georgia, Texas, Alabama and other more sensible convention contenders. The Aggies want to be told how to shut down drives and protect quarterback Conner Weigman, however, once the defense returns, it will be right under Elko, the Aggies’ former defensive coordinator.
Toughest test: Nov. 30 against Texas. The Aggies will have home-court advantage, but ESPN’s FPI gives the Longhorns a 70. 8 percent win rate. It will be the first meeting between the rivals since 2011.
What the committee will like: A season-opening win against Notre Dame. According to ESPN Analytics, Texas A&M has the eighth-best chance of making the SEC championship game, and just a 3. 2% chance of winning the conference. Considering how difficult it was for the Aggies to win the SEC in Elko’s first season, a win against the Irish would go a long way in the selection committee meeting room as the organization considers organizations for at-large bids. Beating Notre Dame was critical to Ohio State’s spot in the 2022 CFP when it failed to win the Big Ten title. Beyond the Irish, Texas A&M’s non-conference schedule is weak (McNeese, Bowling Green and New Mexico State). The variety committee would compare that to other at-large contenders with more impressive non-conference wins, especially if the Aggies can’t catch up in the regular season compared to ranked SEC opponents.
What the committee won’t like: the problems on the roads. The Aggies only play 4 authentic road games: in Florida, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Auburn. None of those groups are expected to fight for the SEC title, and it’s conceivable that none will end up in the CFP’s top 25. If Texas A
FPI chances of making the playoffs: 20. 7% | Win the title: 0. 8%
Dinich’s take: Ole Miss has a top-10 chance to make the CFP. They would have qualified for all 12 teams last year and in 2021, and the Rebels will likely be even better this season with the return of quarterback Jaxson Dart. With the retirement of former Alabama coach Nick Saban and a significant change to LSU’s roster, this may be the best opportunity for coach Lane Kiffin to take the next step in the SEC and PSC.
Toughest test: November 9 against Georgia. The Bulldogs remain the benchmark in the SEC and beat Ole Miss last year 52-17. Ole Miss can qualify for the playoffs, but it wants to close that hole, especially if it wants to have a chance. to win them. This year, the Rebels will have the home advantage.
What the committee will like: A winning record against LSU, Oklahoma and Georgia. These are the three toughest sides on the Rebels’ schedule, and ESPN’s FPI gives Ole Miss a less than 50% chance of winning each of those games. However, if Ole Miss can go 2-1, it will put itself in position to play for the SEC championship (assuming it wins its other games, of course) and will almost certainly earn an at-large bid if it doesn’t win the championship. qualification. league. The selection committee may not be inspired by the first-half schedule, which includes non-conference games against Furman, Middle Tennessee and Georgia Southern. A win against Wake Forest will help more if the Demon Deacons are ranked, but as long as they have a winning season, the committee would look favorably on this win. Still, the Rebels will want more to impress the organization if they don’t win the SEC. If Ole Miss is as smart as those in the program believe, the Rebels deserve to be undefeated heading into their Oct. 12 game against LSU.
What the committee won’t like: No declaration path wins. If Ole Miss doesn’t win at LSU, she may not face a qualified opponent along the way. The rebels surrendered to Wake Forest, South Carolina, Arkansas, and Florida. This is not anything that is likely to exclude Ole Miss from the PPC, but it will be a point of contention in the event of a close debate.
REIT’s chances of making the playoffs: 18. 3% | Winning the title: 0. 6%
Dinich’s take: That’s a little high for a team that’s on the verge of the top 25 with such a rigorous road schedule. Louisville, which finished 15th on Selection Day, would not have qualified for the 12 groups last year, and this year’s list is even more intimidating. The program is on the rise under coach Jeff Brohm, who led Louisville to the ACC championship game last year, and any team with a chance to win its league now has a chance in the CFPArray. However, there is still work to be done before Louisville. win the ACC, like beating Florida State and Clemson. The good news for Louisville is that it may not face FSU in the regular season, but that’s the only bye on the schedule the Cardinals have.
Tougher test: On Sept. 28 in Notre-Dame. La win last year over the Irish helped Louisville earn respect in the committee meeting room and a repeat would bring even more weight this year because the game is on the road. When comparing Louisville to a team for an overall spot, the variety committee would favor a road win against the Irish rather than a weaker win outside of the conference.
What the committee will like: the road wins. In addition to facing Notre Dame in South Bend, Louisville will face Clemson, new ACC member Stanford, and SEC rival Kentucky. This is in addition to the ACC’s road trips to Virginia and Boston College. Five of the Cardinals’ last seven games have been on the road. The committee includes former players and coaches, as well as existing sporting directors, all of whom perceive the difficulty of eng.
What the committee won’t like: Another bad loss. There were a lot of points in the committee’s resolution last year to exclude undefeated ACC champion FSU from its top four, and some of them were disrespectful to the Louisville team the Seminoles beat. the ACC championship game. The organization considers the warring sides of the warring sides, and Louisville’s Oct. 14 loss to Pitt, who finished 3-9, whatever they remember.
REIT’s chances of making the playoffs: 18. 2% | Win the title: 0. 6%
Dinich’s Take: Coach Mario Cristobal has attracted some of the more no-nonsense skills, however, the Canes’ chances of making the CFP shouldn’t be any better than NC State’s until they prove they are contenders in their own conference. game they shouldn’t have had last year (a disastrous finish against Georgia Tech) Miami has also lost 3 games directly to ACC warring parties NC State, FSU and Louisville. With the move of Washington State quarterback Cam Ward taking over, there’s reason for optimism, and Miami, at least on paper, has enough ability to contend for the ACC title.
Toughest test: Oct. 19 at Louisville. Miami will have a week off to prepare for this game, and they’ll want it after traveling the country to face ACC’s new opponent, Cal. ESPN’s REIT gives Louisville a 56. 4% chance of winning.
What the committee will like: an unofficial state title. Miami to face warring parties in the state of Florida, Florida A
What the committee won’t like: inconsistency. If Miami needs to earn an overall spot, it can’t repeat last season, when it found a way to beat Clemson in double overtime, but faced Georgia Tech. This year, Miami has a chance to beat a much tougher opponent. bigger. -He improved the Virginia Tech team on a Friday night, but will have to avoid disappointment with Cal the following Saturday. It may be more complicated than it seems given the time difference and travel. No Clemson or NC State on the regular season schedule. , the committee will look to ensure that Miami leaves no doubt that they are the best team against unseeded competition and that they pick up a win or two against the CFP’s top 25 contenders.
REIT’s chances of making the playoffs: 16. 6% | Win the title: 0. 5%
Dinich’s Take: Does SMU, a program that has lost each of its last 4 bowl games, have a better CFP chance than Utah? Arizona? Oklahoma State? USC? ESPN Analytics has the Mustangs winning two more games, unlike Florida State and Louisville, which is a big component of why their odds are better than other contenders here. However, if SMU doesn’t win those two games, the committee likely won’t be inspired enough by the rest of the schedule to give SMU a coveted at-large spot, especially when there will be so many other contenders with tougher, more productive schedules. two-loss records. SMU’s schedule is ranked 73rd in the country, according to ESPN Analytics. ESPN BET has SMU’s overall win at 7. 5, a mark the program has surpassed in 3 of its last five seasons. Just because SMU won 11 games last year and joined the ACC this year doesn’t mean it will immediately look like a strong convention contender. Instead, their playoff adventure became more difficult. . .
Toughest test: on September 28 against the state of Florida. SMU will officially start its ACC club against the convention’s protective champions. SMU lost to the conflicting parties to the force convention it faced last year: in Oklahoma and TCU.
What the committee will like: Convincing victories. Since the Mustangs only leave Dallas once before October and likely won’t face a ranked opponent in November, the committee will look for SMU to prevail against overranked or slightly evenly ranked groups. If SMU needs to move up one spot overall, it can’t lose in November to Pitt, BC, Virginia and Cal. And it can’t look sloppy. The committee will compare the Mustangs to Notre Dame and the third and fourth most productive teams in the Big Ten and SEC.
What the committee probably wouldn’t like: An 0-2 record against FSU and Louisville. If the SMU does not defeat at least one of these groups, its hopes in the CFP are lost. With a non-conference lineup that includes Nevada, Houston Christian and the Big 12 contenders BYU and TCU, there is rarely enough to make up for the waste of the two most sensible groups on the schedule. If the strength of the schedule was based on academics, SMU’s roster would be playoff-worthy, but beating Stanford, Cal, Duke and Virginia likely wouldn’t constitute an at-large bid in and of itself.
FPI chances of making the playoffs: 16. 4% | Win the title: 0. 1%
Dinich’s take: The five most sensible convention champions are guaranteed a spot in the 12-team playoffs, so from the Mountain West, American, C-USA, MAC or Sun Belt will be on the field. With USC Malachi Nelson’s much-touted move to quarterback, plus the return of running back Ashton Jeanty and a deep defense, Boise State may be the most talented and well-rounded team in Group Five vying for a playoff berth. The Broncos are sending back 18 starters for the first year. Coach Spencer Danielson.
Toughest test: September 7 in Oregon. ESPN’s FPI gives Boise State a better than 50% chance of winning each and every one of its games: this one. Oregon has a 92. 7% chance of winning at home, where it has lost just once in the last five seasons.
What the committee will like: Three main organizations on the program. Wins against two of them (Oregon State and Washington State) would give the Broncos an advantage over Liberty, who once back has the worst schedule in the FBS and still won their league. Liberty has yet to face any Power Four opponents. Boise State can make things a lot less difficult for the organization this fall, as it would almost actually assign the highest grade to a Broncos team that has only lost to Oregon backing an undefeated Liberty team.
What the committee might not like: multiple defeats. This is where things get tricky and perhaps controversial. If Boise State loses to Oregon and maybe a trap game in Hawai’i, but wins the Mountain West Conference, will the committee still rank the Broncos ahead of undefeated C-USA champion Liberty?In this situation, the state of Boise would still have victories against the state of Washington and the state of Oregon. Or what if the Broncos lost in Oregon and at home on Friday night in the normal season finale against Oregon State?The same questions would arise. The variety committee faced a lot of backlash from the public last year over its Liberty rating, even though the Flames have the weakest schedule in the country. Will the panel continue to honor the undefeated record on the hardest road?It’s a situation you’d probably prefer to avoid.
FPI of making the playoffs: 16% | Winning the national title: 0. 3%
Dinich’s take: This is the sweet spot for Arizona in terms of their CFP chances, however, the Wildcats shouldn’t be ahead of Utah, at least not yet. There will be a transitional era in coaching when San Jose State’s Brent Brennan replaces Jedd Fisch, who went to Washington and brought a dozen players with him. Arizona also has a tricky road ahead at UCF on Nov. 2. This may be a team with three losses, so it’s a long shot without a Big 12 title.
Toughest test: Sept. 28 at Utah. The Utes were picked by the media to finish first in their debut season as a member of the Big 12. Quarterback Cam Rising, who led Utah to consecutive Pac-12 titles and Rose Bowl appearances before he was injured, is back after missing last season with a knee injury. Utah’s Kyle Whittingham is one of the most experienced coaches in the country, and eight starters return from a defense that allowed just 19.3 points per game last year.
What the committee will like: Back-to-back road wins in September back qualified opponents. The committee may not want to wait for its first qualification to know how seriously it takes Arizona as a candidate for CFP. The Wildcats will travel to K-State on Sept. 13 (a Friday), followed by the Utah holiday on Sept. 28. If Arizona is undefeated by the end of September, it will already be at the top of the big 12 race. It’s conceivable that Arizona would face either group returning to the convention’s naming game. A regular-season win against the eventual Big 12 convention champions would do wonders for their overall chances, as the variety committee evaluated similar wins on the final day of the draft.
What the committee might not like: a wasted record. Arizona wants to go 3-2 or better on the road. The Wildcats to K-State, Utah, BYU, UCF and TCU. None of this is easy. If they fail twice on the road and still win the Big 12 name, they’re in. Either way, though, the variety committee would have a hard time justifying an at-large spot. If Arizona beats BYU, UCF and TCU but loses to K-State and Utah, it will need help getting into the Big 12 name game, but it’s possible. The variety committee would have a harder time forgiving multiple road losses to unranked warring parties, and ESPN’s FPI favors UCF and TCU.
REIT’s chances of making the playoffs: 15. 6% | Win the title: 0. 1%
Dinich’s take: The Roadrunners have more convention festivals in the American region than Boise State, which probably has a credit over Fresno State and San Diego State in the Mountain West region. UTSA, in its second season in the AAC, will face a major challenge from Tulane and Memphis for the convention title. UTSA coach Jeff Traylor, entering his fourth season, has turned the show into a contender for the convention, however, questions arise this fall after the departure of key veterans, adding seven-year quarterback Frank Harris.
Toughest test: September 14 in Texas. This is similar to the Boise State game against Oregon in that ESPN’s FPI projects UTSA to win every single game in this one. However, it is the only Power Four opponent on the Roadrunners’ schedule and Texas has a 93% chance of winning at home.
What will please the committee: A convention champion with one loss. Without causing disappointment in Texas (which is crazy), the ideal situation here for UTSA would be to finish as convention champions with a loss. It would help the Roadrunners if they could put together a respectable game against the Longhorns. The committee takes note of the ebb and flow of games, which are closer than the scoreboard indicates. Could UTSA accomplish this and avoid a lopsided outcome? If so, it could help in the variety day debate when the Roadrunners will be compared to other Group of Five champions who might be undefeated.
What the committee won’t like: a momentary defeat against an unranked team. That’s why UTSA is in the right position, Boise State, because the Roadrunners don’t have as many opportunities to impress the committee, which means they also have less room for error. Assuming UTSA loses to Texas, any other scheduled losses on the schedule will drop them one notch in the eyes of the committee compared to a one-loss Boise State team. However, the question remains how the committee would compare it to Liberty. If the committee follows its precedent, undefeated Liberty would be ahead of UTSA, which has suffered two losses, even though the Roadrunners’ schedule is No. 64 and Liberty’s is No. 134.
REIT’s chances of making the playoffs: 13. 9% | Winning the title: 0. 3%
Dinich’s Take: NC State’s odds deserve to be slightly higher (and for now, ahead of Miami) due to the Pack’s favorable schedule and decent chance to win the ACC. Somehow, NC State is missing four of its league’s most productive teams in the regular season (FSU, Louisville, Virginia Tech and Miami). Although NC State didn’t recruit as much elite skill as Miami (which had the fifth-ranked recruiting class in the country in 2023 and sixth in 2024, while NC State was just the second-best five in both years, according to ESPN), the Coach Dave Doeren did more with what he had. That includes beating the Canes last year.
Toughest test: Sept. 21 at Clemson. The Wolfpack beat the Tigers at home last year, but they’ll have to do it in Death Valley, where they’ve lost nine straight. ESPN’s FPI gives Clemson a 69. 9% chance of winning.
What the committee will like: A nonconference win over Tennessee. The Vols have a chance to be among the top 25 teams in the CFP and in the playoff race, making this non-conference game critical for both teams. has shown great respect for the SEC in its weekly rankings, and if NC State manages to eliminate one of those teams, it can also earn a merit on Draft Day against any other competitor with a weaker resume.
What the committee probably wouldn’t like: An 0-2 record against the Vols and Clemson. NC State may not face either of the teams that appeared in last year’s ACC championship game (FSU and Louisville), so the variety committee will want to see the Pack beat the most elite festival possible . That didn’t happen last year, as NC State went 1-3 against teams that finished the season ranked in the CFP poll, compared to 8-1 against unranked opponents. The most productive team NC State beat last year was No. 22 Clemson, which finished with four losses.
FPI’s Odds of Making the Playoffs: 13. 5% | Winning the title: 0. 4%
Dinich’s take: We’re only in the second year under coach Hugh Freeze, and Auburn continues to work its way into the more sensible part of the SEC. There are questions about quarterback Payton Thorne’s passing ability, Freeze fired his offensive coordinator and DJ Durkin was hired as defensive coordinator. Some groups ranked below (the state of Oklahoma and Utah) have a more realistic chance of winning their conference. ESPN’s FPI gives Auburn less than a 1% chance of winning the SEC and a 2. 9% chance of making it to the championship, the 10th most productive in the SEC. Auburn’s schedule is tough enough to suffer 4 or more losses, which would move the Tigers away from an overall spot. Auburn is a dark horse candidate at best productive.
The most difficult test: on October 5 in Georgia. After opening the season with five games directly at home, Auburn’s first will be a meltdown, and that’s just a week after hosting SEC newcomer Oklahoma. ESPN’s REIT gives Georgia an 88. 4% chance of winning.
What the committee will like: The strength of the schedule. Auburn enters the season with the fifth-toughest show on FBS, according to ESPN Analytics. If Auburn exceeds expectations and finishes 10-2 or better, the Tigers will undoubtedly earn an overall spot. They will have to win difficult games as visitors along the way. Auburn traveled to Georgia, Missouri and Kentucky in October and finished the season in Alabama. The variety committee rewarded SEC teams with less difficult schedules.
What the committee might not like: Oh-for-October. After facing Georgia on Oct. 5, Auburn has a week off to prepare for the Oct. 19 trip to Missouri before completing the month at Kentucky. Auburn can’t lose those three games and expect the selection committee to laud it with a CFP offer, even if the Tigers find a way to beat Oklahoma and win the Iron Bowl. The non-conference schedule (Alabama A&M, Cal, New Mexico and Louisiana-Monroe) probably won’t win the Tigers any debates on selection day. In this specific scenario, the committee would have a hard time justifying a CFP offer to a team that earned a road win.
FPI’s odds of making the playoffs: 13. 4% | Winning the title: 0. 3%
Dinich’s take: USC couldn’t win the Pac-12 or finish in the CFP’s top 25 with the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, Caleb Williams. Now, do you intend to win the Big Ten without him? There are high expectations for quarterback Miller Moss, however, it will take a minute for the Trojans to assert themselves as contenders with a new quarterback and a new defensive coordinator in D’Anton Lynn.
The toughest test: Do the Big Ten matter? This Los Angeles school is headed to Michigan, Minnesota, Maryland. This is all uncharted territory, but the toughest opponent is familiar: rival Notre Dame. The ESPN REIT offers the Irish a 61. 8% chance of winning.
What the committee will like: A 3-0 non-conference record. If USC can open the season with a win against LSU in Las Vegas and close the regular season by beating Notre Dame (and assuming a Week 2 win against Utah State), that will be in the CFP verbal exchange, even without winning the Big One. Ten. Wins would give USC, which also has home games against Wisconsin and Penn State, some much-needed margin for error in its first season in the conference. If USC can finish the season 10-2 with wins over LSU and Notre Dame, the variety committee will point to the non-conference schedule as the main explanation for the reason for inclusion.
What the committee might not like: an 0-2 record against former Pac-12 foes. It’s one thing to lose to Michigan and Penn State in the first season of the Big Ten. It’s another thing to lose at Washington and UCLA, both in transition with new head coaches. They may not make the PPC the top 25 list this year. If USC needs to win an overall bid, the variety committee will need to see that the Trojans leave no doubt that they are the biggest team opposed to those opponents. USC has lost two of the past three games against the Bruins and is looking to avoid the series’ first three-game losing streak since 2012-14.
REIT’s chances of making the playoffs: 12. 6% | Winning the title: 0. 4%
Dinich’s take: This is another big 12 team that shouldn’t be ahead of Utah yet, but as far as the Cowboys’ chances of making it to the CFP go, it’s perfect. With 20 returning starters (the most of any Big 12 team), Oklahoma State has the experience and talent to win the Big 12, but Utah has been a better defensive team. The selection committee has already rewarded teams with strong offenses and weak defenses, but if the Cowboys don’t win their league, the committee will look for a more well-rounded team when it comes to overall positions.
Toughest test: September 28 at K-State. Not that the week before is much easier, but the Cowboys will at least have Utah at home on September 21. And if Oklahoma State loses to Utah, the road to K-State will be even more pressure-laden and meaningful. The ESPN REIT gives K-State a 60. 5% chance of winning.
What the committee will like: A Sept. 7 win over Arkansas. Of course, that means Arkansas takes a dramatic step ahead of its 4-8 record last year. Even if the Razorbacks are unseeded, if they finish above Array500, a win here will get the attention of the variety committee. As long as Arkansas is having a respectable season, this is the kind of non-conference win that can separate Oklahoma State from the other contenders in the variety committee assembly hall if it doesn’t win the Big 12. It’s also possible that Oklahoma State will make up for a tough loss outside of the conference, and the Cowboys will also have to face Utah and K-State in what will be a tough September.
What the committee might not like: a fizz in November. Oklahoma State may really surprise the variety committee in the early part of the season, but it may also get away with trap games in November. Two of the last three games will be on the road: at TCU and on Friday, November 29, to end the regular season in Colorado. Last season in September, they lost to South Alabama and Iowa State, but beat K-State, Kansas and even Oklahoma midseason. The variety committee has valued consistency, and while a bad loss can be overcome in the 12-team format with a convention title, it will still make things very difficult for groups competing for at-large spots.
REIT chances of making the playoffs: 12. 5% | Winning the title: 0. 2%
Dinich’s take: Utah will be the highest-ranked team in the Big 12 this preseason, and without Oklahoma or Texas, it will be a very close race, meaning the standings will likely be much closer than the preseason FPI rankings. Utah has three key ingredients for CFP success: a veteran head coach in Kyle Whittingham, a winning quarterback in Cam Rising and one of the stingiest defenses in the country.
Toughest test: September 21 at Oklahoma State. ESPN’s FPI gives Oklahoma State a 58. 3% chance of winning. The Big 12 is expected to have the closest convention race, as nine schools have at least a 10% chance of participating in the naming game and a 5% chance of winning it, according to ESPN Analytics. Utah and Oklahoma State have a 17% chance of winning the championship game.
What the committee will like: style points. Winning the state’s unofficial name will rarely impress the variety committee, as victories over southern Utah, the state of Utah and BYU would not possibly separate the Utes from the other CFP contenders. Utah has 3 important opportunities to do so: on September 21 against Oklahoma State, on September 28 against Arizona, and in the Big 12 Championship Game if it qualifies. Everything else is an opportunity to show the committee that this is a CFP-caliber team that doesn’t minimize its competition and avoid setbacks. Nothing is guaranteed for Utah if it doesn’t win the conference, and the committee will review the Utes’ schedule, which may come with a single outing against a seeded opponent (Oklahoma State).
What the committee might not like: losing twice to the same team. If Utah loses to Oklahoma State or Arizona in the normal season, and then returns to the same team in the big 12 championship game, it will most likely be a dagger in their CFP hopes, although Utah ends up with two losses. up. Without facing K-State in the normal season, Utah would struggle to make up for that when the variety committee compares the Utes to other general contenders with a more potent resume.
REIT’s chances of making the playoffs: 11. 5% | Win the title: 0. 3%
Dinich’s Take: He’s a sleeper who’s making progress and may surprise some teams, but until proven otherwise, that’s still far from the case in the CFP. The Red Raiders were picked via the media to finish ninth in the Big 12. Without a convention title, Texas Tech would likely have to win at Arizona and/or Oklahoma State to give the committee a signature win for an at-large. place. There are a handful of turnaround games (at TCU, at Iowa State and against West Virginia) that could actually help Texas Tech compete for an at-large berth, but there’s no room for error in them here.
The most difficult test: October 5th in Arizona. He’s a new convention opponent and we’re fighting for the Big 12 title. The ESPN REIT gives Arizona a 59. 9% chance of winning.
What the committee will like: A winning road record. The Red Raiders’ chance to impress the variety committee with quality wins will come down the road. The most elite festival will take place in Arizona and Oklahoma State, but it will also be tough to win at TCU and Iowa State. ESPN’s FPI favors all of Texas Tech Road’s opponents, with the exception of Washington State .
What the committee might not like: the overall strength of the schedule. Texas Tech is ranked 69th in SOS, according to ESPN Analytics, and may only face two conflicting parties in the top 2 CFP during the normal season (Oct. 5 at Arizona and Nov. 23 at Oklahoma State). Their non-conference lineup includes Washington State’s FCS Abilene Christian, which ranks 64th on ESPN’s FPI, and North Texas, which ranks 106th on the FPI.