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When Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid go head-to-head, you can count on an exciting deal. Our potential football betting options do not foresee it converting this time and we expect each and every club to locate the bottom of the net.
A week after meeting in the Spanish Supercopa semifinal, Atletico Madrid will once again square off with cross-city rivals Real Madrid on Thursday for a spot in the Copa del Rey quarterfinals.
It’s not the season Diego Simeone’s side are hoping for, but Atletico Madrid return from Saudi Arabia hoping that the Estadio Metropolitano can continue to produce results. It’s been more than a year since Atletico last lost at home, with 25 unbeaten in that time.
The Super Cup title came easily to Real Madrid after beating Barcelona in Sunday’s final to go 21 games unbeaten. But they needed more time to beat Atletico in the semi-final, and there may be a bit of jet lag and heavy legs that lead Carlo Ancelotti to rotate the team.
My Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid betting picks for Thursday, January 18 explain why we should expect plenty of entertainment in this Copa del Rey affair.
For much of Simeone’s reign, Atletico were known for their defense. It was a boring game for neutrals, but it led to a lot of hard-fought victories and silver pieces. But this defense hasn’t been there this season. Sure, they’ve kept blank sheets, but the number of 1-0 and 2-0 wins just hasn’t been there lately.
Atletico have left just one blank sheet in their last six games, conceding goals in four of them. That includes conceding three goals in regulation time against Real Madrid last week before losing 5-3 in extra time.
Before heading to the Middle East, Atletico needed a second-half brace from Memphis Depay to defeat Lugo in their Copa del Rey opener, while the Spanish third-tier side fought harder than expected. This preceded a 4-3 mystery win against Girona. .
Atletico have the fourth-lowest xGA in La Liga this season and have only allowed 23 goals in 19 games, but have only kept 4 clean sheets in thirteen games in all competitions this season; All 4 have been in the last seven games.
Still, it’s difficult to see them keeping a clean sheet against Los Blancos. Real found a goal in the meeting in September, and their attack is in fine form of late. The combination of Vinicius Jr and Rodrygo in attack has people easily forgetting about the departure of Karim Benzema. At the same time, midfielder Jude Bellingham has been worth every cent of his record transfer fee.
Real Madrid has not yet been able to control its 14 away games in this crusade and has only kept five clean sheets away from home. He scored a total of 10 goals in regulation time during his 3 January games, and it’s hard to watch Atlético. Madrid keeps them off the scoreboard.
As we saw last week, these two groups have a lot of offensive qualities and aren’t afraid to go toe-to-toe. Even if Real Madrid rotate, they will most likely be in defence. Ancelotti has already shown that Kepa will not start in passing, so Atletico will most likely find the back of the net.
I’m heading to TonyBet’s combo market, where I can get Over 2.5 goals with both teams scoring at -108 odds. This should be priced closer to -120, and once lineups are confirmed I expect it will move. Take advantage of the slight edge and enjoy what I expect will be a feisty and exciting fixture.
My bet: Over 2. 5 goals and either team to score (-108 at TonyBet)
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In each of their last two matches this season, Real Madrid conceded 11 corners against Atletico’s defence. Atletico have a tendency to block shots as much as possible, and Real Madrid’s higher ownership rate and 42 shots combined in the two games led to several players crossing the baseline.
Throw in the fact Real Madrid have attempted at least seven corners in each of their last four matches against Atletico Madrid, and it’s easy to see why I’m taking six to be the floor here.
Antoine Griezmann has been in fine form for Atletico and has found the back of the net in both Madrid derbies this season. He also contributed to the first goal last week when Mario Hermoso returned home.
Griezmann has been involved in four of Atletico’s 10 goals in their past four matches, and his track record against Real Madrid has me backing him to be involved again.
Learn how to bet on the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.
The 3-way line offers positive odds on all 3 selections. Real Madrid are the favourites, with 145 on offer, but Atletico can get them for 187, while the draw will pay up to 255.
Real Madrid could be forced to rest some players due to fatigue and jet lag, giving Atletico an advantage. When tails are revealed, it can also bring about one of the most significant changes I’ve noticed in a long time.
I’m staying away from the moneyline until I see the lineups, but if Ancelotti has to rest key players — especially on defense — I’m likely pouncing on Atletico draw no bet which is currently +110 at bet365.
As for the total, I’m already at the Over 2. 5 as a component of my bet, just like public bettors. The value you can get now is -128 in FanDuel, and everyone else is -135 or higher. The Under of 2. 5 will give you higher odds on the maximum books.
These teams have too much firepower for me to overcome. They also don’t do low-scoring deals when they meet. Four of the last five games have seen 3 or more goals, and the last two games have seen 10 goals in regulation. The last two games at the Metropolitano have also come to an end.
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Atletico Madrid: Reinildo D (outgoing), Thomas Lemar M (outgoing), Pablo Barrios M (probable). Real Madrid: Kepa GK (outgoing), Eder Militao D (outgoing), David Alaba D (outgoing).
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