Amid a forged but imperfect season, Bayern Munich will be hoping to maintain a tight grip on the Bundesliga title race when they host RB Lepizig in the spotlight at the Allianz Arena on Friday.
An unexpected loss to Mainz last time out reduced their lead at the top of the table to four points over last year’s winners Bayer Leverkusen, and while that’s still a pretty solid merit for now, a second straight defeat in the match would ring a bell. alarm bells. Formation
RB Leipzig are fourth in the Bundesliga table, but have had a disastrous performance in the Champions League this season. They are eliminated from the knockout race with two games left, thanks to a large number of 0 problems in the first six games, indicating the gulf in quality between them and the most productive in Europe.
BET NOW: The latest odds for Bundesliga matches and bets for Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig fit at BetMGM
That puts a bigger importance on Leipzig’s league matches from here on out, knowing their European journey is close to a conclusion.
MORE: A Complete Guide to Betting on Soccer in the United States
Sporting News football betting expert Kyle Bonn shares his most productive high-risk, high-reward bets, props, and booklets for some of the sport’s biggest games each week. Since the beginning of 2024, their three-way moneyline predictions have been right 55% of the time, generating a profit of more than 50 series so far.
Bayern Munich have had enormous difficulty with RB Leipzig in recent years, winning just two of their last seven games against today’s opponents across all competitions, with both victories coming by a one-goal margin.
This represents a good moment for the Bavarians in several ways, whether it be their overall form in the league or their history of head-to-head matches against Leipzig. The visitors are one of the only German clubs to have an injury list as long as Bayern, and their recent form has been better, having been knocked out several times in the Champions League against opposition of the caliber they exist.
Leipzig have the biggest favorable expected goals differential in Bundesliga play this season, with goalkeeper Peter Gulacsi repeatedly called into action (more on that shortly). As their European exploits prove, that’s not a sustainable model.
MORE: How to Watch Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga
Every Bayern Munich match has the potential to be loaded with goals, and the market overcompensates and evaluates the value. Nowadays, the odds are again heavily skewed towards a higher number of goals, but the game pays off this time.
RB Leipzig have also held their own thanks to their goalkeeper, who has the fourth-highest xG differential after shot in the German top flight this year. Still, unlike the league’s best team, it will take a Herculean effort to engage Bayern’s attack – that’s exactly what Mainz did last weekend, and hopes are high it will happen twice in a row.
Meanwhile, on the other end, Bayern sport the lowest expected goals conceded mark in the league, but their goalkeeper Manuel Neuer has been one of the worst in the league. The 37-year-old’s decline has been real and apparent, and RB Leipzig will be primed to contribute to this total. Unfortunately, both teams to score sits at -175, so this is the better value play.
Former Crystal Palace standout Michael Olise has thrived at Bayern Munich since joining in the summer. While he suffered through a dry spell after a hot start to life in Germany, he seems to have worked through the kinks and has returned to being a key contributor up front for the Bavarian giants.
Olise has provided his teammates with 11 key passes in his last four league matches, plus three more in two Champions League games sprinkled in. He has three total assists in those six games, and even in games where he fails to set up a goal, he still has proven incisive. In league play this season, his 0.17 xA/shot assist ranks second amongst anyone with 20 or more chances created, meaning only world-class Leverkusen star Florian Wirtz is generating a better combination of volume and quality.
While you can get Olise to score or assist a goal at -135, his main threat is in the creativity department, so the increase in value here is worth the risk of dropping any finishing return.
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Kyle Bonn graduated from Syracuse University with a degree in broadcast journalism and has been covering soccer on a global scale for more than a decade. Kyle specializes in football tactics and betting and has a degree in knowledge analysis. Kyle also produces television broadcasts for Wake Forest football and previously appeared on NBC Soccer and IMG College. When he’s not covering the game, he’s long been a stalwart with the New York Giants, Yankees and Fulham. Kyle enjoys playing racquetball and video games when he’s not watching or covering sports.