In the midst of a strong season, Bayern Munich will hope to maintain its grip on the Bundesliga name race when it hosts RB Lepizig under the lights of the Allianz Arena on Friday.
An unexpected loss to Mainz last time out cut their lead at the top of the table to four points over last year’s winners Bayer Leverkusen, and while that’s still a pretty solid merit for now, a moment directly related to defeat in the game would ring a bell. alarm bells. .
RB Leipzig are fourth in the Bundesliga table, but have been catastrophically deficient in the Champions League this season. They are eliminated from the round of 16 with two games to play, thanks to a big 0 problems in the first six matches, indicating the quality gap between them and the best in Europe.
BET NOW:Latest odds for Bundesliga games and best bets for the Bayern Munich vs. RB Leipzig match on BetMGM
That puts a bigger importance on Leipzig’s league matches from here on out, knowing their European journey is close to a conclusion.
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Sporting News football betting expert Kyle Bonn shares his most productive high-risk, high-reward bets, props and handouts for some of the biggest games in sports each week. Since the beginning of 2024, his three-way moneyline predictions have been right 55% of the time, generating a profit of over 50 series so far.
Bayern Munich have had enormous difficulty with RB Leipzig in recent years, winning just two of their last seven games against today’s opponents across all competitions, with both victories coming by a one-goal margin.
This presents a get-right moment for the Bavarians in a number of ways, both their overall league form and their head-to-head record against Leipzig. The visitors are one of the only German clubs with an equally lengthy injury list to match Bayern’s, and while their recent form has been better, they’ve been repeatedly demolished in the Champions League when matched against opponents of today’s caliber.
Leipzig have the biggest favorable expected goals differential in Bundesliga play this season, with goalkeeper Peter Gulacsi repeatedly called into action (more on that shortly). As their European exploits prove, that’s not a sustainable model.
MORE: How to watch Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga
Every Bayern Munich game has the potential to be loaded with goals, and the market overcompensates and costs value. The odds today are heavily weighted towards a higher number of goals, but the game is worth it on this occasion.
RB Leipzig have been all-too-often saved by their goalkeeper, who sports the fourth-best post-shot xG differential in the German top flight this year. Yet against the best finishing team in the league, it will take a Herculean effort to keep a lid on Bayern’s attack — that’s exactly what Mainz produced last weekend, and it’s a lot to expect that to happen twice in a row.
Meanwhile, on the other hand, Bayern have the fewest expected goals conceded in the league, but their goalkeeper Manuel Neuer has been one of the worst in the league. The 37-year-old’s decline has been genuine and evident, and RB Leipzig will be in a position to contribute to that total. Unfortunately, the score of both groups is -175, so this is the game with the most productive value.
Former Crystal Palace player Michael Olise has thrived at Bayern Munich since arriving in the summer. Although he experienced an era of drought after a good start to his life in Germany, he turns out to have triumphed over unrest and once backed a key contributor to the Bavarian giants’ attack.
Olise has given his teammates 11 key passes in his last 4 league games, plus 3 more in two Champions League games. He has provided three assists in total in those six games, and even in games where he fails to score a goal, he has been incisive. In the league this season, his assist of 0. 17 xA/shot is second only to anyone with 20 or more chances created, meaning that only Leverkusen’s global star Florian Wirtz generates a combination of greater volume and quality.
While you can get Olise to score or assist in a goal at -135, his biggest threat lies in the creativity department, so the value boost here is worth the risk of wasting any bottom-line benefits.
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Kyle Bonn, is a Syracuse University broadcast journalism graduate with over a decade of experience covering soccer globally. Kyle specializes in soccer tactics and betting, with a degree in data analytics. Kyle also does TV broadcasts for Wake Forest soccer, and has had previous stops with NBC Soccer and IMG College. When not covering the game, he has long enjoyed loyalty to the New York Giants, Yankees, and Fulham. Kyle enjoys playing racquetball and video games when not watching or covering sports.