In the midst of a strong season, Bayern Munich will hope to maintain its grip on the Bundesliga name race when it hosts RB Lepizig under the lights of the Allianz Arena on Friday.
An unexpected defeat to Mainz last time out reduced their lead at the top of the table to four points over last year’s winners Bayer Leverkusen, and while that remains a pretty solid merit for now, a moment directly linked to the defeat in the game would sound. alarm bells. .
RB Leipzig sit fourth in the Bundesliga table, but have been cataclysmically bad in the Champions League this season. They are eliminated from knockout stage contention with two matches to play, thanks to a big fat zero points through the first six games, indicating the gulf in quality between themselves and the best in Europe.
BET NOW: Latest odds for Bundesliga matches and bets for Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig fit at BetMGM
This now gives greater importance to Leipzig’s league matches, knowing that their European adventure is about to end.
MORE: A complete guide to betting on soccer in the United States
Each week, Sporting News’ soccer betting expert Kyle Bonn shares his most productive high-risk, high-reward bets, props and handouts for some of the biggest games in sports. Since the beginning of 2024, his three-way moneyline predictions have hit 55% of the time, generating a profit of over 50 series so far.
Bayern Munich have struggled immensely against RB Leipzig in recent years, winning two of their last seven games against today’s rivals in all competitions, with both victories coming by a one-goal margin.
This represents a good moment for the Bavarians in a number of ways, whether it’s their overall form in the league or their head-to-head record against Leipzig. The visitors are one of the only German clubs to have an injury list as long as Bayern, and their form has been better recently, having been knocked down several times in the Champions League against opponents of the existing calibre.
Leipzig have the biggest favorable expected goals differential in Bundesliga play this season, with goalkeeper Peter Gulacsi repeatedly called into action (more on that shortly). As their European exploits prove, that’s not a sustainable model.
MORE: How to watch Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga
Every Bayern Munich game has the potential to be loaded with goals, and usually the market overcompensates and prices out the value. The odds are once again heavily weighted towards a higher goal count today, but it’s worth the play on this occasion.
RB Leipzig have also been saved by their goalkeeper, who has the fourth most productive post-shot xG differential in the German elite this year. However, unlike the most productive team in the league, it will take a Herculean effort to engage Bayern’s attack; That’s precisely what Mainz produced last weekend, and there are high hopes of that falling twice in a row.
Meanwhile, on the other end, Bayern sport the lowest expected goals conceded mark in the league, but their goalkeeper Manuel Neuer has been one of the worst in the league. The 37-year-old’s decline has been real and apparent, and RB Leipzig will be primed to contribute to this total. Unfortunately, both teams to score sits at -175, so this is the better value play.
Former Crystal Palace player Michael Olise has thrived at Bayern Munich since arriving in the summer. Although he experienced an era of drought after a good start to his life in Germany, he turns out to have triumphed over unrest and once backed a key contributor to the Bavarian giants’ attack.
Olise has provided his teammates with 11 key passes in his last four league matches, plus three more in two Champions League games sprinkled in. He has three total assists in those six games, and even in games where he fails to set up a goal, he still has proven incisive. In league play this season, his 0.17 xA/shot assist ranks second amongst anyone with 20 or more chances created, meaning only world-class Leverkusen star Florian Wirtz is generating a better combination of volume and quality.
While you can get Olise to score or assist on a goal at -135, her biggest threat lies in the creativity department, so the increase in value here is worth the risk of wasting any eventual benefits.
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Kyle Bonn graduated from Syracuse University with a degree in broadcast journalism and has been covering soccer on a global scale for more than a decade. Kyle specializes in football tactics and betting and has a degree in knowledge analysis. Kyle also produces television broadcasts for Wake Forest football and previously appeared on NBC Soccer and IMG College. When he’s not covering the game, he’s long been a stalwart with the New York Giants, Yankees and Fulham. Kyle enjoys playing racquetball and video games when he’s not watching or covering sports.