Anticipation begins to build with the start of the NFL preseason. While it’s not the lively, action-packed football we’re used to seeing in the fall and winter, it’s still NFL football.
This comes with the ability to bet on the NFL at some of our NFL betting sites.
Just as watching pre-season football is different from regular season football, betting on the pre-season is somewhat different from betting on the normal season. Pre-season matches are exhibition matches that don’t count towards qualification, so the top groups care more about doing a few reps and avoiding injury than winning those glorified scrums.
That said, pre-season can be a fun way to get back into football after a six-month hiatus. It’s also imaginable to effectively bet on pre-season matches if you decide your seats.
With this in mind, here are some tips for the football preseason.
While this is done before betting on a match, it is even more important in the preseason, as teams rarely reveal their full starting lineup. Stars play sparingly (if at all), as teams don’t need to risk losing key players to senseless injuries. Parties.
For example, Aaron Rodgers hasn’t played a preseason since 2018.
Even when the starters dress up, they rarely play the full game. Most only play a few series and are out of the game at halftime, so expect to see plenty of substitutes and players who aren’t part of the final roster.
RB Isiah PachecoDT Tershawn WhartonTE Jody FortsonWR Kadarius ToneyCB L’Jarius Sneed
The 1st will be a quarter, the 2nd will be a fourth. . . and so on.
— PJ Green (@ByPJGreen) August 11, 2023
As a result, preseason games can become unstable, especially in the second half. If a team bets against their starters, it is better to place bets on the first half than on the full match.
Since the NFL shortened the preseason from 4 games to 3 in 2021, Week 2 of the preseason has the de facto “costume practice session week” where groups play with their starters for the maximum (if not all) of the first half.
That replacement didn’t result in high scores, however, as the Unders scored at a 55 percent rate (26-21-1) in Week 2 of that span. It didn’t give the favourites an advantage either, as the underdogs in Week 2 covered 55% of the time in the same consistent period.
Just because the starters are in the game doesn’t mean they’re going full speed ahead or pushing themselves one hundred percent. Infractions tend to look awkward in preseason games, as groups integrate new players and control new plays. Teams also conduct conservative offenses in the preseason to limit the risk of injury and keep their plays more productive during the normal season.
Another way to have a merit is to stay on top of the most sensitive news stories and jump into the lines before they change.
Player data and strategy can be scarce during pre-season, rarely leading to bookmakers getting data at the same time as the general public. As such, it may be favorable to take a quick line when releasing news before sports betting and public adjustment. However, bookmakers restrict players who consistently outpace line movements due to the latest news.
One example of news that hits a line is the 2022 Hall of Fame game. Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs inexplicably played the entire first half in a game in which no other Raiders starter took the field.
While Jacobs ran just 30 yards, Las Vegas scored 20 unanswered points in the first half and won by 16 points, seamlessly covering the -2. 5 gap.
Similarly, if a team has a quarterback competition, they can be expected to have an offense with more passes so they can better compare their quarterbacks.
Pre-season is one of the few times when sportsbooks and players are on the same page in terms of information, and you do your best to take advantage of it, within reason. Choose your locations, as an eBook can simply sign your account if you overdo it.
While star players spend much of the preseason on the sidelines, preseason games are necessarily draws. Therefore, attacking the less fortunate can be a successful strategy in close confrontations.
Since 2015, the 1-3 number underdogs have achieved a score of 158-110 (59%) since the gap, so it pays to be slightly underprivileged when the pre-season lines are released.
If you’ve signed up to sports betting sites, be sure to shop around and get the most productive odds before placing your bet to maximize your potential winnings.
For non-transparent reasons, 37 numbers is a transparent dividing line when it comes to preseason totals.
Over the past thirteen years, Over has reached a rate of 58. 7% (277-195) in games with a projected total of less than 37 points. On the contrary, the Under has reached a rate of 56. 2% (527-410) in games with a projected total of more than 37 points.
Bettors have a tendency to bet on the Over regardless, as the totals closed at 37 and 37. 5 saw the Over tied at an average of 60-65% of the total, consistent with the net of action. As such, mitigating viewership and betting upside consistently with totals can produce successful results.
While it can be tempting to blindly bet on the Over on relatively lower totals during the preseason (regular season totals are usually in the 40s), the Under is the way to go.
Photo via Scott Taetsch/Getty Images
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