Every low-season transaction is a little risky if you think about it, changing an NBA list, even in the smallest way, takes it from a known product to an unknown product, even if we like to pretend to know how a new Acquisition works, it’s safe until we’ve noticed the adjustment on the ground.
And then there’s the look.
The scope of a bet in the context of the NBA list depends on the amount wagered (the contract awarded or the assets sold) and the risk of the problem. Be big with a big contract or a multi-option expense, and that’s a big bet. The same goes for additions of long-term flexibility and/or equipment disclosure in the worst case.
The word “nothing random, nothing won” is something to keep in mind.
Here we will see which big low-season bets appear to value it. . . and which already seem unhappy.
It can be difficult to investigate NBA movements from the point of view of the accumulation of natural assets. We agree that first-round selections are valuable, of course, but their actual price remains theoretical.
That’s something to stay in mind when we take a look at the mountain of possible oklahoma City Thunder options, which has grown significantly in recent weeks as OKC broke its list. over the next five years.
It is not entirely fair to say that difficult work is still underway, it is undeniable that the Thunder wants to turn the election into something tangible, either by employing them to recruit young skills or in exchange for chips to win more established players. OKC negotiated with more than a third of the league’s groups in a condensed off-season; it’s very complicated to run with so many irons in the fire, and GM Sam Presti did it all without burning once.
Oklahoma City’s strategy turns out to be the most productive for a small positioning team on the market that needs a fresh start, and the first edition of The Process, which took a position not long ago in Philadelphia, showed that you don’t even want to get many. of the upcoming initial decisions to secure in several consecutive seasons of playoffs.
The Thunder could have brought him back, with Chris Paul or any other more present-focused package he could have ordered back, and fought for a place in the playoffs, but Presti tilted the rebuild transfer and placed his team to win the longest. Game.
There is a huge threat in the exchange of so many genuine players for first-round selections with a price to be determined. We will have to recognize the overwhelming uncertainty that is coming, even if we say that this bet was a price take.
Verdict: buy
If he’s healthy, Gordon Hayward makes the Charlotte Hornets more likely to win basketball games. No one disputes that.
To maintain the vanity of the game, the challenge with Charlotte committing 4 years and $120 million for the 30-year striker is a matter of possibilities. The Hornets seem to pay: a slight improvement in the likelihood of playoffs. in the short term and in moderation greater relevance – it’s worth the bet.
But it’s like saying it makes sense to deposit $100 for a fragile chance of earning $10. This comparison is too undeniable because it excludes concepts such as opportunity cost. But you have the fundamental idea: Charlotte spent a lot and also gave up Nicolas Batum, stretching his $27 million in dead money, for the privilege of paying Hayward $30 million a year. If all goes well, the industry can give the Hornets the eighth seed, who, now that the league has instituted a tournament play for groups ranked 7-10 at each conference, does not even secure a place in the playoffs.
Hayward’s injury history is a problem. Like Charlotte’s resolve to spend her roof area on an All-Star strip (at best), she employs her to absorb money with tied options.
It’s the kind of move a desperate player would make.
Verdict: sell
Whether or not the Milwaukee Bucks had Giannis Antetokounmpo’s security that a talent improvement industry would increase their chances of signing a supermax expansion, they had no choice.
They had to sell their draft capital to the 2020-2021 list, that’s all they did by getting Jrue Holiday from the New Orleans Pelicans for three first-round picks and swapping rights for two more along the way. agent after next season.
I wouldn’t assume Milwaukee would do that step without at least one concept of Holiday’s willingness to stay on his next contract, but when his organization’s sole purpose is to show Antetokounmpo that he takes it seriously to get him a ring, he may worry. . about Holiday’s dubious long career after obtaining this supermax signature from Giannis.
Don’t hide the ball here. The Bucks had the wisdom to make that bet. The surprise of the sticker is real; Holiday is a smart player, but Milwaukee gave in a lot to get it. If Antetokounmpo does not make a signal or makes the decision to leave through an advertising request, the Bucks will not have the draft picks they will want to rebuild. lots of games without the benefits of the lottery to ease your pain.
Antetokounmpo is a generational actor. Appeasing it is so unique to Milwaukee that even if pelicans had insisted on more commercial assets for Holiday, the Bucks would have had justification for paying.
Verdict: buy
A $28. 5 million industry exception doesn’t explain why sneeze. It is a multi-purpose tool that can be divided as intelligently as the Boston Celtics. If a mysterious superstar (earning $28. 5 million or less) isn’t satisfied with the year, the Celtics can run with the possible options and this TPE to make a game for him.
However, Boston may seize the other opportunity it missed in the Gordon Hayward game saga.
The Indiana Pacers’ medium, Myles Turner, who would have been in a signing and industry deal for Hayward, would have been an ideal compatibility on Boston’s front line. Their mobility, elasticity and hoop coverage would have opened the Celtics’ attack on in the past invisible degrees while adding a detail of the national defense that Daniel Theis, blessed to be, cannot match.
Turner is imperfect. Demonstrates changes and has trouble recovering from position. But you don’t expect perfection from a player who makes $18 million a season. It’s cash for a “quality opener,” and Turner is a quality opener, one that would have been right for Boston.
Yes, that TPE offers Celtics options, and if saving money is a priority, they don’t have to use it at all. But unless frugality was the only motivation, it’s hard to see how Boston made the decision that Indy sign-and-industry was a worse setback than an industry exception that might prove useful if the right cases are maintained sometime this season. .
Boston is smart enough for himself to be a player away from a title. It’s an exaggeration to say that Turner is definitely that player, but there’s a smart chance he is. Who knows what, if any, will come from this TPE?
Verdict: sell
As physically impressive and undeniable as it can be, James Wiseman remains a center.
The league (despite the Detroit Pistons) is no longer big in this area, so wiseman’s Golden State Warriors’ resolution in second place in the draft is certainly a gamble.
Aside from trfinish positions, Wiseman’s pick is also an ambitious gamble because Golden State may have changed the pick. It would have been nothing unexpected for a Warriors team looking to make the most of the end of Stephen Curry and Draymond Green bonuses. For months before the project, the hypothesis revolved around Golden State; It would have made perfect sense for the Dubs to mix Option No. 2 with Andrew Wiggins’ salary, his $ 17. 2 million TPE or even his very valuable 2021 Minnesota Timberwolves (first-round protected).
Wiseman’s selection seemed much better after Golden State controlled the use of his TPE to get Kelly Oubre Jr. out of the Oklahoma City Thunder without sacrificing any of his top draft capital value. Extract the price of this exception to attach it to Option No. 2. It turned out that the warriors did not have to decide between Wiseman and help on the wing.
With optimism, Wiseman will be usable in the fifth season of his rookie season. Warriors will restrict their daily work to rolling the hoop and blocking shots at first. They will play faster, which will take credit for the speed and fluidity of the ordinary Maybe until the end of the year, you will have shown enough expansion to stretch the floor a little or when it is replaced through the guards. The defensive ending is likely to be a fight, and Wiseman will leave the midpoint for Green at key moments.
Strange as it may seem given the Warriors’ existing position in the league, Wiseman holds the right bet as it provides the franchise with a bridge into the future. Warriors aren’t real contenders, but there’s a way to get that back. prestige in a few years.
If Wiseman is a transformative ability that goes from hunting like David Robinson to betting like him, and if this selection of the Wolves provides the Dubs with a cornerstone of the moment, well. . . we have something that looks a bit like the San of the 2010s. Antonio Spurs.
Curry, Green and a healthy Klay Thompson would reflect Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginóbili, while Wiseman and some other young star would play the rising role of Kawhi Leonard.
We’re well into weeds in this, and there are too many variables to count while Wiseman reaches his pace, but since the Warriors may not realistically use Pick 2 to climb a player who can turn them into a contender in 2020-21, they did well to take a course that could bring them back to that elite point in a few years.
Verdict: buy
Statistics provided through NBA. com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Basketball Insiders wage data.