While February and March are the most productive simulation months for the NFL, August is simulation month for fantasy football. The difference is that while real-world simulations are largely for entertainment and forecasting purposes, sophisticated simulations can help fantasy managers have longer seasons.
No, fake drafts may not tell you who a safe selection is or where the most productive sleepers are. However, they can help how players are evaluated and in what diversity certain positions or players deserve to be selected.
For example, let’s take a look at Kansas City Chiefs rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire. There have been many rumors around the former LSU star, especially after Damien Williams chose not to participate in the 2020 season.
“He’s on his way to a year, to be our main ball-carrier,” chiefs general manager Brett Veach said through NBC Sports’ Peter King.
This rumor, of course, would lead top fantasy managers to Edwards-Helaire. However, through the analysis of simulated drafts, managers can get a broader concept of the extent to which they will have to pull the trigger.
While recruits rarely participate in the first-round conversation, this is precisely where drafts place Edwards-Helaire.
Here, we’ll read about a simulated assignment (executed with The FantasyPros Simulated Mapping Simulator) to assess where Edwards-Helaire and other more sensitive fantasy targets are evaluated at first. We’ll also provide a cheat sheet about the players to aim at, without quarterback, and we’ll talk about this shortly.
PPR 2020, rounds 1-2
1.01: Christian McCaffrey, runner, Carolina Panthers
1.02: Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants
1.03: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys
1.04: Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints
1.05: Michael Thomas, RB, New Orleans Saints
1.06: Dalvin Cook, RB, Minnesota Vikings
1.07: Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers
1.08: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
1.09: Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
1.10: Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons
1.11: Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
1.12: Austin Ekeler, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
2.01: JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
2.02: Allen Robinson, WR, Chicago Bear
2.03: Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs
2.04: DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Arizona Cardinals
8:05 p.m.: Miles Sanders, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
2.06: Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans
2.07: George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers
2.08: Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers
2.09: Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns
2.10: Kenyan Drake, RB, Arizona Cardinals
2.11: Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
2.12: Kenny Golladay, WR, Detroit Lions
As you can see, Edwards-Helaire is valued alongside eternal fantasy stars like Davante Adams and Julio Jones. This is not entirely unexpected because, in his projected role, Edwards-Helaire may be in reserve for a special season.
Only Kareem Hunt was the back for each and every single time the Chiefs batted as rookies in 2017. He finished with 1,327 yards per land, 455 yards at reception and 11 touchdowns in total. This is the kind of season Edwards-Helaire might have in theory.
What is a little more unexpected is that there is a great early execution of the receivers in this simulation. While key catchers like Michael Thomas, Jones and Adams are regular first-round games, pass receivers like Tyreek Hill, Chris Godwin, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Allen Robinson are the early target here.
Due to the intensity at the open receiver, No. 2 getaways exceed the 1,000-yard mark, the first runs regularly involve offensive averages. Here we have control simulators that double pass to collectors early.
This is not the worst strategy in matters consistent with the reception formats (PPR), I propose to catch at least one ball carrier in the first two circulars. You can regularly locate a number 1 receiver on the third or fourth circular (Amari Coo consists of going to circular four in this simulation), but halfbacks do not usually last that long.
Of course, it is to be flexible and not to force possible options based on the typical. In this simulation, for example, the team that caught Tyreek Hill and DeAndre Hopkins early also landed Todd Gurley and Mark Ingram II in rounds four and 5, respectively.
Nor do I propose to target a quarterback in the first two circulars, and even in the third circular, Patrick Mahomes and Lamaar Jackson are the only two practical objectives. I’m in favor of waiting until the fifth circular or later for a pointer, because you can get an elite fantasy pin there: Kyler Murray and Dak Prescott decided on the fifth circular in this simulation, but you’re much less likely to move to an elite ball carrier or receiver beyond Round 4.
In fact, you can get quality quarterbacks much later in the draft. Matt Ryan was a selection of seventh circular in this simulation and Aaron Rodgers lasted until Circular 11.
Unless you get one of the big 3 – Travis Kelce, George Kittle and Zach Ertz – it’s also sensible to wait in a closed wing. Darren Waller, who had 1,145 yards receiving last season, played in the sixth inning of this simulation. Austin Hooper, who added 787 yards and six scores in 2019, played in the twelfth inning.
As is the case with the quarterback, you can regularly land tight T-shirt caliber tips in the intermediate rounds. The focus in rounds 1 and 2 deserve to be in the media and receivers: Kelce, Kittle and, to a lesser extent, Ertz can be considered giant catchers through their roles in their respective offenses.
Memory of the first round of Fantasy 2020
Back
1. Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers
2. Saquon Barkley, New York Giants
3. Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
4. Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys
5. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs
6. Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings
7. Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns
8. Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans
9. Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles
10. Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers
11. Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
12. Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers
13. Josh Jacobs, Los Vegas Raiders
14. Kenyan Drake, Arizona Cardinals
15. Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars
The open receiver
1. Michael Thomas, Saints of New Orleans
2. Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons
3. Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers
4. Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
5. Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs
6. Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions
7. DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona Cardinals
8. D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers
9. Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
10. Allen Robinson, Chicago Bear
Difficult end
1. Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs
2. George Kittle, 49ers from San Francisco
3. Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles
4. Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens
5. Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders