The 2020 NFL low season was another animal, and without pre-season here in August, there are many more hypotheses in the fantasy world. When performing a statistical analysis, coaches have to go back to last season, which can be problematic for several reasons, namely that players, conditions and patterns are replaced year after year.
Check out Odell Becham Jr. and Le’Veon Bell last season. In the past they were reliable fantasy stars, but they struggled after replacing the stage, and a year’s rest in Bell’s case. Similar scenarios will be played this season, as there have been many renewals on the list in the last two months.
The new Arizona Cardinals open receiver, DeAndre Hopkins, could be located on such a stage. Like Beckham last year, he left a forged pass offense to hire a sophomore and a reliable catcher.
However, the former Hopkins quarterback may see a bigger slip than him.
Let’s take a look at 10 possible failures that should be avoided, not quite, even in their existing mid-draft (ADP) positions.
10 fantastic players to avoid, ADP (from FantasyPros)
1. Melvin Gordon III, RB, Denver Broncos (39)
2. Deshaun Watson, QB, Houston Texans (42)
3. Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers (44)
4. Le haveon Bell, RB, New York Jets (54)
5. Stefon Diggs, WR, Buffalo Bills (57)
6. Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills (69)
7. Rob Gronkowski, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (80)
8. Julina Edelman, WR, New England Patriots (83)
9. Austin Hooper, TE, Cleveland Browns (94)
20. Kirk Cousins, QB, Minnesota Vikings (133)
Deshaun Watson, QB, Texans de Houston
While the Denver Broncos’ new offensive half, Melvin Gordon III, is an apparent contender for defeat (he joins a backfield with 1,000-yard runner Phillip Lindsay), things are a little less transparent with Houston Texas quarterback Deshaun Watson.
After all, Watson is one of the most productive young quarterbacks in the game, and the Texans switched to Hopkins, added Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb.
Well, here’s the problem. Cobb and Cooks aren’t retrograde either. Cooks has a history of concussions, while compatriot Will Fuller is a constant threat of injuries that has been lost 22 games in 4 seasons.
There may be games where Watson has few of his weapons available, further damaging his already inconsistent weekly production. Watson has passed only 300 yards 3 times in 2019 and has played four games without a touchdown.
And while Watson brings a double threat price to the table – he had 413 yards on the court last season – he doesn’t have as many chances to fight David Johnson in the fold. Johnson would possibly not be the 2,000-yard weapon he once was, however, the Jajans seem to appreciate it very much.
“He has a smart vision,” chief coach Bill O’Brien said, via Deepi Sidhu of the team’s official website. “They gave him smart feet in the hole, especially for a guy his size, a big guy.”
With David Johnson and Duke Johnson Jr. backfield, Houston may rely more on a classic heavy offense this season.
Stefon Diggs, WR, Bills of Buffalo
Like Watson, open receiver Stefon Diggs changed this off-season. He left the Minnesota Vikings, where he had 1,130 yards and six touchdowns last season, and joined the Buffalo Bills. It would be unwise to expect Diggs to have the same production point in the future.
Although Minnesota used a race-oriented offense, the Bills can even aim to run this season. Quarterback Josh Allen is a double threat pointer, and Buffalo has a young, talented backfield with Devin Singletary and Zack Moss.
But Diggs’ disorders go beyond the scheme. He will play with a heavily armed quarterback who lacks consistency and precision. Allen finished only 58.8% of his passes last season and recorded a score of 85.3.
While Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins went for 500 yards more than Allen, he finished 69.1% of his passes and recorded a score of 107.4. He tried 17 fewer passes.
This suggests that Cousins would possibly have sent the ball to Diggs more than Allen.
In addition, Diggs would possibly be the victim of some role redundancy in Buffalo’s crime. While Diggs is a player who can take the lead in defence, John Brown, who logged 1,060 yards and six scores with the Bills last season.
Brown and Diggs will most likely reduce the workload of others, reducing the price of any of the receivers.
Rob Gronkowski, TE, Buccaneers de Tampa Bay
Rob Gronkowski and Tom Brady met with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this off-season, and that sparked a lot of laughter and exciting moments in 2020.
“It’s an opportunity to pass and see what it’s like elsewhere, to see what the NFL is like as a team,” Gronkowski told WEEI (h/t Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times).
While Brady and Gronkowski would possibly evoke emotions of nostalgia, they might not produce the kind of numbers Gronk’s owners expect. Like Bell last season, Gronkowski spent a year out of the game and possibly not without delay would be the player he once was.
More problematic is the fact that Buccaneers are loaded with pass receivers. While Gronkowski was one of the few most productive features for the New England Patriots, Tampa also has Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate.
Howard and Brate are narrow stretches at tee level, so there may even be long periods where Gronkowski is not a component of the initial alignment.
Add to that the fact that Brady and Gronkowski are learning a new offense with a new team for the first time in their career, and it turns out that Gronk is more of a late-round driving force than a rookie fantasy.
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