In at least one aspect, football projects are like snowflakes.
No two are alike.
That is, there are no similarities between one draft and another. This is the third fantasy simulation assignment I analyzed for Bleacher Report in 2020. In all three, at least 15 of the first 24 selections were half-defenses.
Players like Dalvin Cook of the Minnesota Vikings probably wouldn’t be here for long.
But in this third round, there were also big differences with the first two. The position of the open receiver hit harder than before in the intermediate rounds. The quarterback position, on the other hand, was left alone for much of the draft, especially after the elite characteristics were taken.
Examining the differences between individual drafts can come at a wonderful price for fantasy writers as they prepare for the big day, whether it’s figuring out when positional executions can begin or contemplating imaginable pricing options.
So let’s move on to an investigation into the new 12-team point-per-reception (PPR) simulation assignment here in Bleacher Report.
1.01: Christian McCaffrey, RB, CAR
1.02: Barkley Saquon, RB, NYG
1.03: Elliott Ezekiel, RB, DAL
1.04: Alvin Kamara, RB, NOS
1.05: Michael Thomas, WR, NOS
1.06: Derrick Henry, RB, TEN
1.07: Davante Adams, WR, GBP
1.08: Dalvin Cook, RB, MIN
1.09: Julio Jones, WR, ATL
1.10: Miles Sanders, RB, PHI
1.11: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, KCC
1.12: Joe Mixon, RB, CIN
In numbers
The first circular of Fantasy Football’s top projects is short of surprises, and this was no different. As is the case with the vast majority of drafts in 2020, the ball carrier position was hit the first circular with nine players in this position among the 12 most sensible selections.
Among those running halves, Kansas City Chiefs rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who moved on to the first circular overdue after raising draft committees after the Chiefs’ outgoing starter Damien Williams withdrew.
If you’re the young user to be on your list, it will charge you dearly.
My choice
I’m a fan of fifth place in this year’s drafts, exactly what happened in this project. It’s a blow to Michael Thomas of the Saints, who won an NFL record of 149 passes last year and ended with a massive margin as the number one fantasy.
But given how hard the ball carriers are at the beginning of the 2020 drafts, taking any receiver open on the first circular puts it in lockdown mode in the backfield.
I don’t like the interference mode.
2.01: Tyreek Hill, WR, KCC
2.02: DeAndre Hopkins, WR, ARZ
2.03: Travis Kelce, TE, KCC
2.04: Josh Jacobs, RB, ROBLE
2.05: George Kittle, TE, SFO
2.06: Kenyan Draco, RB, ARZ
2.07: Todd Gurley, RB, ATL
2.08: Austin Ekeler, RB, LAC
2.09: Aaron Jones, RB, GBP
2.10: Nick Chubb, RB, CLE
2.11: Chris Godwin, WR, TBB
2.12: Mike Evans, WR, TBB
Back to back
This is the third simulation task of this type that I wrote in 2020, and all 3 followed a trend very early on: nine or 10 ball carriers left the board in the first round, followed by six or seven others in the round. . 2.
There’s an argument for getting an elite receiver, and if you need one of the two most productive tight endings, either of you is almost lost at the end of circular 2. Just know that at the end of the circular moment, the 15 most sensitive ball carriers are going to be gonesville.
My choice
After taking Michael Thomas in the first round, a ball carrier is a virtual necessity here.
In a very good world, Drake from Kenya’s Arizona Cardinals would have fallen a few more places. But we don’t live in a very good world, so it was Austin Ekeler’s ability to takeover opposite Aaron Jones’ 19 total touchdowns last year and Nick Chubb’s cap.
With the merit of a point consistent with the reception, Ekeler won.
3.01: Jonathan Taylor, RB, IND
3.02: Chris Carson, RB, SEA
3.03: Lamar Jackson, QB, BAL
3.04: Allen Robinson II, WR, CHI
3.05: Leonard Fournette, RB, JAX
3.06: James Conner, RB, PIT
3.07: Kenny Golladay, WR, DET
3.08: D.J. Moore, WR, VOITURE
3.09: Cam Akers, RB, LAR
3.10: Patrick Mahomes, QB, KCC
3.11: JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, PIT
3.12: Raheem Mostert, RB, SFO
Surprise, surprise, surprise
The third of this assignment contained the first surprise. And the second. And the 3rd.
The first two were rookie midfielders Jonathan Taylor of the Indianapolis Colts and Cam Akers of los Angeles Rams. Both are talented young players, however, their workload at the beginning of the season is dubious and the ADP for either player is significantly later than they were selected here.
Meanwhile, Patrick Mahomes of the Chiefs came off the board as late as I noticed in any draft in 2020, after a circular after his ADP 2.07. No matter what you think of taking a room before, Mahomes is a vanquished value.
My choice
I take Mahomes seriously myself at 3.05. If I’d taken a ball carrier in the first two rounds, I probably would have.
More than a few fantasy writers are against Leonard Fournette of the Jacksonville Jaguars after the team spent the entire off-season looking to get rid of him. But Fournette is still there and has touched the ball 341 times in 2019, gaining 1,674 yards in total in the process.
4.01: Amari Cooper, WR, DAL
4.02: Calvin Ridley, WR, ATL
4.03: Mark Ingram II, RB, BAL
4.04: David Johnson, RB, HOU
4.05: Le’Veon Bell, RB, New York
4.06: Odell Beckham Jr., WR, CLE
4.07: Cooper Kupp, WR, LAR
4.08: Melvin Gordon, RB, DEN
4.09: Adam Thielen, WR, MIN
4.10: Robert Woods, WR, LAR
4.11: A.J. Brown, WR, TEN
4.12: Keenan Allen, WR, LAC
Wide receiver operation
It made sense with 21 offensive averages leaving the board in the first 3 rounds that faster or later would be a run away. In fact, this race took place in Round 8, the players in the position were selected.
It’s an organization that talks about the strategy of hitting an early runner or ending with a tight end of the elite or a quarterback in the early rounds. Whether Amari Cooper of the Dallas Cowboys, Odell Beckham Jr. of the Cleveland Browns or Robert Woods of los Angeles Rams, more than one pass receiver caught in this inning has a merit among the 12 most sensitive.
My choice
Sometimes, in live drafts, you make a selection of which you regret almost immediately. This is the case of the Melvin Gordon variety in 4.08.
Gordon was named the broncos’ new leader in 2020. But the 27-year-old has Phillip Lindsay biting his heels, has just had a disappointing 2019 season and has an average of more than 4 yards consistent with a career. in five seasons.
I’m not easy to redesign.
5.01: Tyler Lockett, WR, SEA
5.02: DJ Chark Jr., WR, JAX
5.03: Mark Andrews, TE, BAL
5.04: Dak Prescott, QB, DAL
5.05: Zach Ertz, TE, PHI
5.06: Diontae Johnson, WR, PIT
5.07: Ronald Jones II, RB, TBB
5.08: David Montgomery, RB, CHI
5.09: Courtland Sutton, WR, DEN
5.10: Terry McLaurin, WR, WAS
5.11: Metcalf DK, WR, SEA
5.12: Andre Swift, RB, DET
Scope-o-Rama
For the most part, I’m in favor of bringing the players you need on draft day. The user who has to answer for taking a player is the technician who selected him.
But while Diontae Johnson of the Pittsburgh Steelers is a promising young skill that showed lightning moves last year despite the lousy quarterback move in Steel City, his 8.03 ADP is nearly 3 full rounds later than where he was selected here.
More talents were shown there.
My choice
When the baltimore Ravens’ tight final, Mark Andrews, decided on the third pick of the fifth inning, I took my resolution. If Zach Ertz of the Philadelphia Eagles did it to me, it didn’t go past 5.05.
Ertz’s moment for goals, third for receptions and fourth for the elegant PPR problems among all the wings closed last year. It gives an elite rising fantasy as the number one reception option in Philadelphia, and is presented with a discount value compared to Travis Kelce and George Kittle.
6.01: Brown Marquise, WR, BAL
6.02: Devin Singletary, RB, BUF
6.03: T.Y. Hilton, WR, IND
6.04: Jarvis Landry, WR, CLE
6.05: Stefon Diggs, WR, BUF
6.06: Kareem Hunt, RB, CLE
6.07: Will Fuller V, WR, HOU
6.08: DeVante Parker, WR, MIA
6.09: Tyler Boyd, WR, CIN
6.10: James White, RB, NEP
6.11: A.J. Green, WR, CIN
6.12: J.K. Dobbins, RB, BAL
Wide Receiver Run 2.0
For the moment, in 3 circulars, the sixth circular of the draft pointed to the position of the open receiver. As in Round 4, 8 of the 12 selections were outgoing.
These giant receivers covered the entire range. There were veterans like A.J. Green of the Cincinnati Bengals who have recorded big numbers in the past, promising pins like Marquise Brown of the Baltimore Ravens and a wonderful selection with a very high ceiling in Will Fuller V of the Houston Texans.
Six rounds in this project, there are more determined by receivers (33) than media (32).
My choice
DeVante Parker of the Miami Dolphins nevertheless had his escape season in 2019 with 72 receptions, 1202 yards, nine touchdowns and a WR11 final in fantastic PPR points.
Despite this wonderful year, Parker’s ADP ranks 29th among the open receivers with 6.09, almost exactly where it was selected here.
I’ll take a Number 1 catcher coming out of a WR1 season at this place 10 out of 10 times.
7.01: Evan Engram, TE, NYG
7.02: Darren Waller, TE, LVR
7.03: Michael Gallup, WR, DAL
7.04: Jordan Howard, RB, MIA
7.05: Brandin Cooks, WR, HOU
7.06: Crowder Jamison, WR, New York
7.07: Julian Edelman, WR, NEP
7.08: Christian Kirk, WR, ARZ
7.09: Marlon Mack, RB, IND
7.10: Mecole Hardman, WR, KCC
7.11: Tyler Higbee, TE, LAR
7.12: Russell Wilson, QB, SEA
Pass receiver parade
Pass hunters continued to be the story of this project. By the end of the seventh round, five catchers bigger than the offensive midfielders had been caught. Only two of the selections in this circular fell into the last category. It’s a bit weird, but exceptionally, half-circle outrs are a safer bet than their backfield counterparts, especially in a PPR league.
The rest of the tight second spots (Evan Engram, Darren Waller and Tyler Higbee) were also decided in the seventh round, as Russell Wilson of the Seattle Seahawks.
Wilson is the fourth quarterback in the draft and the first in more than two rounds.
My choice
If the Miami Dolphins’ offensive lineman, Jordan Howard, had lost his place, it would have been my choice. But the other editors here didn’t cooperate.
However, if Brandin Cooks can stay healthy by 2020, he has a valid chance of winning the 20 most sensible fantasies as the New Texans’ New Number One Receiver.
My Thomas/Parker/Cooks trio has a real chance of being one of the most formidable opening ensembles in the league. Not bad where they took the last two.
8.01: Darius Slayton, WR, NYG
8.02: Deshaun Watson, QB, HOU
8.03: Emmanuel Sanders, WR, NOS
8.04: Kyler Murray, QB, ARZ
8:05 a.m.: Marvin Jones Jr., WR, DET
8.06: Henry Hunter, TE, LAC
8.07: Mike Gesicki, TE, MIA
8.08: Antonio Gibson, RB, FUE
8.09: Hayden Hurst, TE, ATL
8.10 a.m.: Breshad Perriman, WR, New York
8.11: Josh Allen, QB, BUF
8.12: Phillip Lindsay, RB, DEN
Shifts are people
The position of quarterback is by far the innermost in football. It’s also the hardest to fix.
In some drafts, the 10 most sensitive features below the center would have disappeared since the end of the eighth round. Here, the fifth quarterback was taken only when Houston’s Deshaun Watson was in 8.02.
Having a concept of when the lowest weekly beginners will start to leave the board can give you a genuine advantage on draft day. The cartoonist Watson took had necessarily the same fantasy as Dak Prescott, almost 3 full rounds afterwards.
He’s the kind of guy who wins leagues.
My choice
I played in the circular octave, in more tactics than one.
There is no guarantee that Antonio Gibson will play a leading role inside Washington as a rookie. But he has to catch passes from the team’s backfield and has demonstrated an electrifying athletics in Memphis.
I also rolled the bucket for Phillip Lindsay of the Broncos to return to Round 9, where I could catch him as sure for my Gordon mistake.
It wasn’t like that.
9.01: CeeDee Lamb, WR, DAL
9.02: Matt Breida, RB, MIA
9.03: Tarik Cohen, RB, CHI
9.04: Jerry Jeudy, WR, DEN
9.05: Adrian Peterson, RB, WAS
9.06: Justin Jefferson, WR, MIN
9.07: Sterling Shepard, WR, NYG
9.08: Austin Hooper, TE, CLE
9.09: Mike Williams, WR, LAC
9.10 a.m.: Scott Boston, RB, PHI
9.11: Kerryon Johnson, RB, DET
9.12: Jared Cook, TE, NOS
RB Scrapheap
The ball carrier position, however, returned in the ninth circular draft when five fullbacks split from the board between No. 97 and 108. That the hole between them and the giant draft receivers is still so wide (seven) says a lot about how unattractive the backs are.
Matt Breida of the Miami Dolphins and Boston Scott of the Philadelphia Eagles probably want an injury to them for the regular producers. Kerryon Johnson of the Detroit Lions is prone to injury and has a talented rookie in D’Andre Swift who breathes around his neck.
Could a weekly fantasy start come from this group? Yes, but the chances of that happening aren’t good.
My choice
It happened with this: stacking the NFL’s urgent offense in 2019.
With Derrius Guice out, Adrian Peterson is about to manage at least the expected paintings in DC to start the year. He averaged a respectable 4.3 yards consistent with the race in 2019 and spent 1,000 yards on the court two years ago.
But Peterson is also 35 years old and his leadership in Washington is not without guilt.
10.01: AJ Dillon, RB, GBP
10.02: Tony Pollard, RB, DAL
10.03: Alexander Mattison, RB, MIN
10.04: Anthony Miller, WR, CHI
10.05 am: Duke Johnson, RB, HOU
10.06: Drew Brees, QB, NOS
10.07: Eric Ebron, TE, PIT
10.08: Matt Ryan, QB, ATL
10.09: Ke’Shawn Vaughn, RB, TBB
10.10 a.m.: Justin Jackson, RB, LAC
10.11: Jonnu Smith, TE, DIX
10.12: Zack Moss, RB, BUF
Send the handcuffs
If the fantasy managers in this league handcuffed their high-level runners, the dreams died in Circular 10.
Tony Pollard of the Dallas Cowboys and Alexander Mattison of the Minnesota Vikings are probably the two most valuable fantasy wives. Both are backups for players who are selected in the part before the first round. Both have shown that they can carry the load when called.
None landed with those who recruited Ezekiel Elliott and Dalvin Cook.
My choice
Leaving Matt Ryan on lap 10 is a shining example of why waiting to write a quarterback in fantasy is an idea.
Ryan is a safe bet to finish in the 10 most sensible of the quarters. In fact, it’s a feat the 35-year-old has completed in three of the last four years.
In two of the first seasons, Ryan finished in the three most sensible seasons. It’s a veteran option that’s shown leading a loaded attack, and it has the price right there.
11.01: Aaron Rodgers, QB, GBP
11.02: Henry Ruggs III, WR, LVR
11.03: DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI
11.04: Latavius Murray, RB, NOS
11:00 am: Deebo Samuel, WR, SFO
11.06: Jalen Reagor, WR, PHI
11.07: Preston Williams, WR, MIA
11.08: Matthew Stafford, QB, DET
11.09: Tevin Coleman, RB, SFO
11.10 a.m.: Sammy Watkins, WR, KCC
11.11: Noah Fant, TE, DEN
11.12: T.J. Hockenson, TE, DET
12.01: Brandon Aiyuk, WR, SFO
12.02: Damien Harris, RB, NEP
12.03: Tom Brady, QB, TBB
12.04: Chris Herndon, TE, New York
12:05 pm: Sony Michel, RB, NEP
12.06: Carson Wentz, QB, PHI
12.07: Baker Mayfield, QB, CLE
12.08: Bryce Love, RB, FUE
12.09: Jack Doyle, TE, IND
12.10pm: Darrell Henderson, RB, LAR
12.11: DeAndre Washington, RB, KCC
12/12: Rob Gronkowski, TE, TBB
13.01: Ben Roethlisberger, QB, PIT
13.02: Cam Newton, QB, NEP
13.03: Samuel Curtis, WR, CAP
13.04: Allen Lazard, WR, GBP
1:05 p.m.: John Brown, WR, BUF
13.06: Kirk Cousins, QB, MIN
13.07: Blake Jarwin, TE, DAL
13.08: Golden Tate, WR, NYG
13.09: Malcolm Brown, RB, LAR
1:10 p.m.: Dallas Goedert, TE, PHI
13.11: Parris Campbell, WR, IND
13.12: Daniel Jones, QB, NYG
Sleeper alert
There were some elections at the end of the round between the eleventh and the thirteenth inning.
Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford was on his way to nearly 5,000 air yards, 38 touchdowns and five more sensitive last year before injuring his back.
The tight winger of the Indianapolis Colts, Jack Doyle, has the chance to emerge as a reasonable source of TE1 production given Philip Rivers’ penchant for players in that position with the Los Angeles Chargers.
Allen Lazard of the Green Bay Packers showed a relationship with Aaron Rodgers at the end of the 2019 season, and it turns out that he has the inner lane to be the number 2 open receiver at Titletown.
My decisions
Deebo Samuel of the San Francisco 49ers would probably not be in a position for Week 1 after breaking his foot while studying the off-season, however, he has become the team’s top sensible catcher at the end of last season and can also be a smart deal if he even plays the 2020 season max.
Washington’s Bryce Love missed his entire rookie season by rehabilitating an anterior cruciate ligament tear, but is a decent driving force overcome after gaining more than 2,100 yards on the court at Stanford in 2017.
I looked for Lazard in Round 13. But after accumulating more than 1,000 yards for the Buffalo Bills last season, John Brown is a good comfort award as a veteran of intensity at the catcher.
14.01: Nyhein Hines, RB, IND
14.02: Jared Goff, QB, LAR
14.03: Pittsburgh Steelers Defense/ Special Teams
14.04: Baltimore Ravens Defense / Special Teams
14.05: San Francisco Defense 49ers / Special Teams
14.06: Jerick McKinnon, RB, SFO
14.07: Michael Pittman Jr., WR, IND
14.08: Ian Thomas, TE, VOITURE
14.09: Drew Lock, QB, DEN
14.10: Buffalo Bills Defense / Special Teams
14.11: Ryan Tannehill, QB, TEN
14.12: Defense of the New Orleans Saints / Special Teams
15.01: Justin Tucker, PK, BAL
15.02: Kansas City Chiefs Defense / Special Teams
15.03: Harrison Butker, PK, KCC
15.04: Wil Lutz, PK, NOS
3:05 p.m.: Joe Burrow, QB, CIN
15.06: Defense of the Indianapolis Colts / Special Teams
15.07: Defense of the Los Angeles Rams / Special Teams
15.08: Greg Zuerlein, PK, DAL
15.09: Robbie Gould, PK, OFS
15: 30h: Younghoe Koo, PK, ATL
15.11: Chicago Bears Defense / Special Teams
15.12: Matt Gay, PK, TBB
16.01: Minnesota Vikings Defense / Special Teams
16.02: Ka’imi Fairbairn, PK, HOU
16.03: Chris Boswell, PK, PIT
16.04: Larry Fitzgerald, WR, ARZ
4.05pm: Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, SFO
16.06: Jason Myers, PK, SEA
16.07: Zane Gonzalez, PK, ARZ
16.08: Philadelphia Eagles Defense / Special Teams
16.09: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense / Special Teams
16.10: Minshew Gardner II, QB, JAX
16.11: Jake Elliott, PK, PHI
16.12: Josh Lambo, PK, JAX
Rounding
The league’s editors were proud at least one aspect: the first defender was not selected until round 14, and the first kicker only decided when Baltimore Ravens’ Justin Tucker came out of the picture at 15.01.
There were also some final quarters that may be vital values by 2020. Ryan Tannehill of the Tennessee Titans is asleep despite a hot moment last year, and Gardner Minshew II of the Jacksonville Jaguars may only have tons of fantastic production as the Jaguars play in 2020.
My decisions
Ian Thomas of the Carolina Panthers is not an elite talent, however, the 24-year-old has the chance to make a replacement for the farewell week and under the goal of Teddy Bridgewater this year.
Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals has just had one of the most productive seasons of all time through a quarterback. The first overall pick in the 2020 draft has the skill and stage until the consecutive time of rookie quarterback to enter the 10 most sensitive fantasy points.
The Eagles’ defense is a Week 1 game with a Washington offense that may be the worst in the NFL in 2020. When favorable clashes run out, it is up to the exemption to locate the transmission option.
Attack player
Matt Ryan, ATL (10.08); Joe Burrow, CIN (15.05)
Since I wasn’t a quarterback before the double-digit rounds, it’s not a bad two-iron. Ryan is expected to finish in the season’s 8 most sensitive fantasy quarterbacks, while Burrow has at least one merit as a substitute. However, if the rookie starts more than once for this team in 2020, something went wrong.
Running back
Austin Ekeler, LAC (2.08); Leonard Fournette, JAX (3.05); Melvin Gordon, DEN (4.08); Antonio Gibson (8.08); Adrian Peterson, WAS (9.05); Bryce Love, (12.08)
The two most productive carriers of this team (Ekeler and Fournette) will be fine, especially if Fournette is experiencing a positive regression in the touchdown department. However, behind them are many questions. Will Gordon take the bull through the horns in his new home? Will one end of the nation’s capital seem like a reliable weekly start?
Wide receivers
Michael Thomas, NOS (1.05); DeVante Parker, MIA (6.08); Brandin Cooks, HOU (7.05); Deebo Samuel, OFS (11.05); John Brown, BUF (13.05)
Since this unit is anchored through the NFL’s most productive receiver, it’s no wonder this is this team’s strength. The first 3 have the possibility to make a genuine noise if Cook and Samuel are healthy, and if any of them are in the box and at the most sensible point of their game, a hole will probably be inserted into the flex zone more weeks than otherwise.
Tight ends
Zach Ertz, PHI (5.05); Ian Thomas, RCA (August 14)
The closed wings are for Ertz. If the 29-year-old is healthy and on the field, it’s a safe bet for the five most sensitive in production. However, if Ertz was wasted a lot of time, this position can become a quick handicap.
Kicker/Defense
Philadelphia Eagles (16.08)
Catching the 3 most sensible midfields for Washington meant DJing a kicker’s writing. But there’s no rule that says I have to write one, so I’ll have until the last resignation move before week 1 that a broker (or maybe Burrow or Thomas) will be sent to so I can take one.
Average draft positions provided through Fantasy Football Calculator. Unless otherwise noted, FFToday provides sophisticated scoring knowledge.
Gary Davenport is a two-time football writer of the year for the Association of Sports Writers.