Futures can be very simple.
There is an explanation for why the preseason odds are so high. Hype can temporarily turn into overvaluation, and millions of futures bets go bad due to injuries, poor performance, or just plain bad luck.
This would possibly be especially true for an award like the Heisman Trophy, given to the maximum remarkable school football player. This is one of the maximum popular NCAAF markets to bet on as the trophy is incredibly prestigious and bettors can in attaining top odds due to the volatility of the price.
But also an approach to madness, and you can have a greater chance of good luck by doing some homework and acquiring some fundamental knowledge.
With that in mind, here are five betting tips before placing your Heisman Trophy bets at our favorite high school football betting sites.
Quarterbacks have recently dominated the award, winning 20 of the last 24 Heismans since 2000. Quarterbacks have won 38 of 89 trophies, winning almost as much as all other positions combined.
So it’s no surprise that there are only quarterbacks indexed in FanDuel Sportsbook’s 2024 preseason odds. Quarterback is the most important position in the box and, like the NFL MVP award, is identified during awards season.
QB play is even more imperative in the era of dispersed options, where QBs usually have to pass threats and make split-second decisions while having solid, accurate weapons at their disposal.
If you’re hoping to go for someone other than a quarterback, you might need a running back. RBs have won the award 19 times, more than any other position except quarterback. However, no guard has won the award since Derrick Henry. in 2015.
Whatever you do, make sure of the defensive players. Only one defensive player, Charles Woodson in 1997, has won the Heisman since players stopped betting back and forth. Since Woodson won the Heisman, only two defensive players — Michigan’s Aidan Hutchinson (2021) and Notre Dame’s Manti Te’o (2012) — have even been finalists for the award.
The Heisman has been awarded every year since 1935, but most of those trophies have gone to a handful of schools. USC leads the way with 8 winners, most recently Caleb Williams in 2022.
Twelve have had at least three Heisman Awards and are the cream of the program. Notre Dame, Ohio State and Oklahoma are tied for second with seven each, followed by Alabama with four. Army, Auburn, Florida, Florida State, Nebraska, LSU and Michigan had 3 winners.
The Heisman electorate prefers to see the player they will vote for, so groups that play high-profile games in prime time generally attract more attention. It’s especially vital for Heisman contenders to get television exposure in October and November, when the race is decided.
Just as MVPs in other sports regularly come from playoff teams, Heisman winners regularly play for the more sensible systems in the spotlight. Therefore, you should possibly stay away from schools that have never won a national championship.
The Heisman Trophy has been awarded on the second Saturday in December for years, even before the proliferation of convention championship games. Therefore, betting on the team that finishes No. 1 in the country is necessarily a prerequisite for Heisman consideration.
Still, good luck in the regular season is an integral component of Heisman winners, as it’s harder for players in mediocre groups to break through and build excitement. As the school football playoffs expand to 12 groups starting in 2024, this season’s Heisman winner will almost arrive. from one of 11 Power Four qualifying programs.
Only two of the last 8 Heisman winners won the national championship: Joe Burrow (LSU) in 2019 and DeVonta Smith (Alabama) in 2020. That said, five of the last 8 Heisman winners played for groups that qualified for the name. . College Football Playoff, so the winning team is in the race for the name.
As such, try to target the players of the contenders for the national title.
The Heisman Trophy is the most talked-about individual award in school football, and systems expand preseason marketing plans, such as trending videos on social media, to draw national attention to certain players. The University of Oregon even bought a billboard in Times Square for quarterback Joey Harrington’s candidacy for Heisman in 2001.
Don’t get caught up in the hype machine, because the game in the box is what ultimately makes the decision on the Heisman Trophy winner. Look at Caleb Williams, who flopped in 2023 when he was the preseason favorite.
It is vital to compare the above criteria and the possibility of the school entering the verbal exchange of the national name before betting on a Heisman Trophy winner, as some schools will try, unsuccessfully, to generate buzz for their player.
Voter fatigue is real, too, as only one player has won Heismans: Ohio State running back Archie Griffin in 1974 and 1975. This trend will continue into 2024, as all recent winners have already joined the NFL.
In the end, don’t put too much emphasis on preseason hype, as many players will die at the end of the season.
Betting on Heisman before the season can be profitable, as that’s when you’ll get the odds. Players’ chances will be minimized as the season progresses and favorites emerge, reducing your potential winnings.
That said, the preseason is also riskier because many things can be replaced between August and December. It is possible for a player to be injured early in the season, destroying his chances.
As a result, it’s better to bet a little in advance than to wait until mid-season before betting more. At this point, you can double down on your preseason picks or take a look at higher-performing players.
Odds vary weekly, so keep that in mind. Waiting longer will give you a clearer idea of the career, but it will also be more difficult for a candidate with a positive rating.
The bias of recentness can cloud voters’ decision-making, so players who finish the season strongly tend to get more attention than those who finish the season. So, try to capitalize on a player before he breaks away from the group.
Finally, keep in mind that only one player can win the Heisman Trophy, so keep your expectations in check and your bets within reason. It’s hard to guess the reward winners and you don’t need to invest too much of your money. betting budget on bets that take months to pay off.
Photo via Kelly Kline/Getty Images
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