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There has never been any credible data to back up the rumors linking Liverpool with a move for Jarrad Branthwaite from Everton, so why do we deserve the latest frenzy?
The 22-year-old Toffees centre-back is considered one of the country’s young talents, a player former Reds manager Jurgen Klopp shamelessly admired in the latter part of his reign at Anfield.
And with Virgil van Dijk entering the final year of his current contract at Anfield and Joe Gomez likely to leave Merseyside, you can understand why the rumours are returning.
On Sunday night, bookmakers Sky Bet and bet365 posted updates stating that they were reducing their odds for Branthwaite, which would be a highly debatable move across Stanley Park; the latter claimed that he was being given odds of 4/5 to 8/1. a Liverpool player at the end of the existing movement window.
But anyone remotely excited about the prospect of Branthwaite donning the red jersey in September just calm down now, for a number of reasons.
Firstly, and perhaps most importantly, the price. Man Utd have already bid for Branthwaite twice, having been quoted for an outrageous £80m for his services. Unsurprisingly, any of his donations appear to have been much smaller.
When other people talk about the ‘Man Utd tax’, they would be right, in addition to any other tax in this case. Branthwaite is young, English, talented and plays in the Premier League.
But don’t you think the tax announced through United would be just as important for a transfer to local rivals Everton? Of course it would be. And if Liverpool didn’t pay £50m for a potentially generational skill like Lille’s Leny Yoro, would Richard Hughes and the Anfield masterminds accept another £30m for Branthwaite as true? We call it bulls***.
Why would Richard Hughes and his colleagues spend £80 million on Jarrad Branthwaite?
The other thing to keep in mind here, and it’s vital, is how football move betting works. Basically, it’s more commonly a marketing strategy through savvy corporations that know they’ll get a bunch of columns quoting odds on big name moves. They’ve already won here because we’re sitting here writing this on a Sunday night.
Large sums of money are not needed to particularly replace the odds in a betting market. Bookmakers are terrified of the internal data at stake, which is why they regularly restrict the amount someone can bet. Therefore, a few small bets can replace a market in a big way.
So while all those major football sites can communicate everything they want about this, we’ll stand our ground and say it’s pointless. This goes against all the perceived wisdom of Merseyside football for many reasons. Plain and simple, we are out.