The EFL Cup semifinals continue on Wednesday with Liverpool hosting Fulham. Given the form both teams enter with, our EFL Cup predictions expect the hosts to run away with this first leg behind a very strong attacking threat.
Wednesday serves up the second of this week’s Carabao Cup semi-finals with Liverpool vs Fulham. These two Premier League teams are meeting at Anfield in the first leg of a two-legged tie that will see the winner face either Chelsea or Middlesborough at Wembley.
Fulham desperately need trophies, but Liverpool are very difficult to beat at home. Will they be able to pull it off and defy football’s odds?Don’t miss our Liverpool v Fulham picks and predictions below!
This Wednesday, under the lights of Anfield, we will witness the first leg of the Carabao Cup between Liverpool and Fulham, with both teams dreaming of reaching Wembley. It will be familiar ground for Liverpool, who won this trophy in 2022, while this semi-final -final offers Fulham the chance to triumph in their first EFL League Cup final.
It’s a smart season for both teams domestically. Liverpool reach the top of the Premier League after losing just one league game all season and with their sights set on another title. Meanwhile, Fulham sit thirteen places below him in the standings. Premier League qualification, but that’s not a bad position considering they lost their talismanic striker Alexsandar Mitrovic this summer.
The question is, how to bet on this semifinal of the Carabao Cup?I’d love to bet on Liverpool on the moneyline, but at -333 you don’t find a smart price at all. Instead, we make a slightly sideways move and Liverpool -1. 5 on the hole at -105.
I’m very confident that we see Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool win by two or more goals here. This Liverpool team have been brilliant this season. They’ve lost just one game all year in the Premier League and in their 20 league games they’ve scored 43 goals, tied for the second most in the entire league, and given up just 18 goals, which is the best defensive record by a large margin. They’re tough to score against and have the ability to rack up big scorelines thanks to their great attack.
They’re missing their best player in Mohamed Salah but the reality is that despite the Egyptian being a big loss, they have more than enough quality in attacking positions to score without him. They have Diogo Jota, Darwin Nunez, Luis Diaz, and Cody Gakpo with all four men capable of causing Fulham problems, especially with two central defenders in Tim Ream and Calvin Bassey both missing due to injury and international commitments respectively.
Liverpool went into Sunday’s FA Cup away game against Liverpool also missing Salah yet they still won 2-0 against a good Arsenal team, which shows the quality in this side. In their past five games in all competitions, we’ve seen Liverpool face Arsenal twice and West Ham, Burnley and Newcastle too. In that spell, they’ve scored 14 goals, not only that but they’ve won four of those five games by two or more goals. With the only exception being a 1-1 draw against Arsenal in the Premier League.
As smart as Fulham are, they may not be able to compete with a Liverpool side that has quality in the starting line-up and also intensity on the bench. Back from Liverpool -1. 5 to -105, you probably won’t regret it.
My best bet: Liverpool -1.5 (-1051 at TonyBet)
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This is a 550 adjustment in a match for Liverpool vs Fulham in Wednesday’s Carabao Cup match that is based on our bet on adjustment.
Let’s start with our most productive bet, which is that Liverpool will win with two or more goals. We have noticed throughout the season that they are a team with a formidable attack. It doesn’t matter if Salah is in a foreign project for the African Cup of Nations, they have the ability to score at will. Not only that, but they have been so smart defensively that they were able to keep Fulham at bay and then improve by getting past them.
Next, we’re going to back Fulham’s Portuguese midfielder Joao Palhinha to get booked. He hasn’t picked up a card in his three Carabao Cup appearances yet but it’s surely a matter of time. In 17 Premier League games, he’s already had eight yellow cards. He’s a great player but he does get booked too often and in a tough midfield battle against a great Liverpool team he should have issues.
In the end, we will help Liverpool win at half-time. It’s a Liverpool side with a lot of quality, capable of taking an early lead and taking the lead until half-time, such is the quality of their squad.
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As mentioned above, I like Liverpool’s chances of winning this game and would be surprised if they didn’t, however, Liverpool’s -333 moneyline odds cannot be subsidized, they are simply too short. So do what I did above and take them -1. 5 on the spread. If you think we’re going to see a draw, you can get 455 or even 800 if you fancy an away win, but I don’t see either outcome.
At -200 for over 2. 5 goals, it’s clear that the bookmakers believe we’ll see a lot of goals at Anfield on Wednesday, and for good reason. Fulham concede too many goals and Liverpool are smart when it comes to scoring them.
We’ve noticed that 60% of Fulham’s away games in the Premier League have scored over 2. 5 goals, bringing their last 4 away games at Craven Cottage to their tally. Not only that, but 70% of Liverpool’s league games at Anfield have also marked this figure. I’d lean towards the Over here, but at -200, I wouldn’t bother betting personally.
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Liverpool: Joel Matip CB (outgoing), Stefan Bajectic CM (outgoing), Andy Robertson LB (outgoing), Thiago CM (outgoing), Kostas Tsimikas LB (outgoing), Mohamed Salah RW (outgoing), Waturo Endo CM (outgoing), Dominik Szoboszlai CM (debatable). Fulham: Adama Traore FWR (out), Tim Ream CB (out), Calvin Bassey CB (out), Alex Iwobi CM (out), Fode Ballo-Toure LB (out).
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