Max Verstappen is under contract with Red Bull until F1 2028, but Mercedes is openly courting him over its empty cockpit.
The Dutch driver still has years to go until the end of his contract with Red Bull, however, Toto Wolff has pulled the strings that have given him the impression in recent months.
Verstappen is locked down until the end of the 2028 F1 season but has made it clear that his continued loyalty to Milton Keynes remains dependent on Helmut Marko’s involvement as the team’s representative and advisor.
The precise machinations of Verstappen’s contract are unknown but, in general, there are all sorts of exit clauses and conditional terminations that could allow for a prior termination if one or any of the parties were to request it.
For example, the massive regulation update in F1 2026, as well as Red Bull’s attempts to fly only on the engine front while Red Bull’s powertrains upgrade to Honda, mean that Verstappen has all but incorporated safeguard clauses for after this season.
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But the recent turmoil that has engulfed Red Bull has led to much speculation about Verstappen’s future and prompted Toto Wolff to make it clear that he would welcome the Dutch driver with open arms to fill the cockpit left by Lewis Hamilton.
Of course, some publications recommend that serious negotiations are already taking place between both sides, Christian Horner stated that “there is no ambiguity about where Max Verstappen will be next year”.
Speaking after the Chinese Grand Prix, Mercedes’ Toto Wolff warned that other “factors” besides having the “fastest car” could influence Verstappen’s exit from Red Bull.
“There are a lot of points that influence a driving force to come together,” Wolff said.
“Obviously, when you look at it from the most rational point of view, you can say, ‘This is the fastest car in the hands of the fastest driver. ‘”
“But I don’t think that’s the only explanation for why you’re still where you are.
“I think, for indisputable minds, that’s the only reason you stay in a car and that’s it, but there’s more intensity for other people who also take other points into account. I think Max has that.
“On this point, should we convince him? I don’t think it’s a matter of conviction.
“Max knows motorsport better than anyone and will make the decisions that are right for him.
“I think some points play a role, but he’s the one who will cause the most dominoes in the future. Everybody’s waiting for what he’s going to do.
As for when, if anything, Verstappen’s transfer from Red Bull to Mercedes, Wolff revealed that he is not at that “point” in talks with the reigning world champion.
“There are conversations with a lot of drivers exploring new opportunities, so it’s not surprising,” said the Austrian.
“As far as Max, we’re not at the point where we’ve talked about years or things like that. “
But for now, he admits: “If I were Max, I would stay at Red Bull in 2025, but I’m Max. It’s the fastest car, although there are still other factors. “
After being informed of Wolff’s comments, Horner said: “Have you spoken to Max about it?Because if you reach out to Max, and in fact it’s not pieces of paper at the end of the day, we’ll know that he was given a contract until the end of 2028, it’s about how he feels about the team and the appointments he has within the team, the team and the way he plays.
“I don’t think Toto’s disorders come from its drivers; I think you probably have other things that you want to focus on instead of focusing on the available drivers.
“We have now surpassed the number of races Mercedes has won in that era.
“The team is in good shape, why would you have to leave this team?
“Mercedes is the third team among their consumers [McLaren and Aston Martin] at the moment, so I think [Wolff’s] time would be invested more, maybe focusing on the team rather than the driver market.
Speaking to the media ahead of the Chinese Grand Prix, Verstappen himself asked about his future and doubts about whether he would remain at Red Bull until the end of his existing contract at the end of 2028.
“After 2021, I signed a long contract with the team,” he said. “The only thing I’ve said from the beginning is that we need to have a calm, non-violent environment.
“I think in the last few years we’ve been talking about the car, so I’m already satisfied with that. We’re talking about the functionality of the car. That’s the way it is, too. “
“As long as I’m satisfied with the team, there’s never going to be an explanation as to why I’m leaving. “
Speaking after the 2023 season, Jos Verstappen told PlanetF1. com that Max intends to review and keep up with his entire F1 career with Red Bull.
“I think that’s the plan,” Jos said at the time.
“Starting with Red Bull and ending with Red Bull, we are very unwavering people.
“They’ve given us a chance and, as long as they have a smart car and Helmut is there, he’ll be a fan of ours. Max has shown that he’s a fan of Helmut, Red Bull and other guys like that. “So that would be fine.
While some F1 media speculate that Verstappen is about to receive a hugely lucrative offer to sign for Mercedes, there are plenty of reasons why the Dutch driver deserves to think very carefully about his future career at Red Bull.
After all, Red Bull has been willing to revolve entirely around him as the main driving force and pay him very handsomely to play that role.
Verstappen is expected to receive a base salary of $55 million per year before work bonuses or good fortune are taken into account; That could equate to an additional $20 million to $25 million.
Verstappen found himself in a team that largely matches his competitive advantage, something that needs to be resolved and rectified temporarily: Red Bull is not a team known for finishing second.
To that end, he and Red Bull have achieved a state of operational precision in 2023 that has never before been noticed in F1: the Dutch driver has won all three races so far, and Red Bull has only been beaten once.
In the first five races of 2024, Verstappen has ruled out his mechanical failure in Australia.
Verstappen is also known for his preference for keeping a low profile off the track, and Red Bull is pleased to allow him to strike a balance between his marketing commitments and the race that hasn’t led the Dutch driver to complain of being overworked.
Most applicable to Verstappen is the fact that, since 2008, Red Bull has won at least one race in every season, with the exception of 2015.
This consistency has not been matched by any other team and it should be noted that Red Bull’s most barren years between 2014 and 2018 were largely explained by its uncompetitive Renault engines: the car remained competitive when engine power was less important.
During the last two major changes to chassis regulations, 2009 and 2022, Red Bull immediately launched competitive bids, putting them in a good position for the new regulations that will come into effect in 2026.
Much of this good luck can be attributed to the genius of Adrian Newey (“the guy who can see the air,” according to Horner), but even Newey had failures in his time at McLaren before Red Bull, indicating the contributions of other prominent engineers. . As Paul Monaghan, Pierre Wache, Enrico Balbo and Ben Waterhouse are also needed to help set it all up.
As long as Verstappen continues to perform at or near the point he has reached over the past decade, there is no reason to doubt that Red Bull will only do so with him.
Moreover, given the extent of its existing technical merit under existing regulations, it will allow Milton Keynes to make further progress in 2026 as soon as regulations allow.
While there are plenty of reasons to stay at Red Bull, there are also plenty of reasons why Verstappen might be drawn to a move to Mercedes — anything that seemed unthinkable in the busy 2021 season.
Most obviously, Verstappen may also be concerned about Red Bull’s potential competitiveness when regulations change. While adjustments to the chassis probably aren’t as big of a concern, the changes to powertrain regulation are significant.
Without Honda, Red Bull will for the first time become a full-fledged powertrain manufacturer and, as Horner pointed out, they lack the foundation and wisdom that rivals like Ferrari (and Mercedes) have.
Although they’re made up of engineers who know exactly what they’re doing, there’s surely no guarantee they’ll get it right the first time around and keep Red Bull close to the front, no matter what the chassis looks like.
Mercedes has great merit in this area and, as it proved in 2014, when its powertrain was unbeatable, it can surely master the complex hybrid generation from the start.
There’s also the fact that good luck in F1 is cyclical: no matter how dominant a team is, that dominance will come to an end.
Red Bull is currently in its third consecutive year of dominance, its fourth year of name dispute, and all is well until the end of 2025. But will Red Bull be able to stand firm in the face of such massive technological changes?” 26 rolls?
They might also be tempted to need to introduce themselves in a new environment. While Red Bull surely gave Verstappen everything he needed to break into F1, win races, and win multiple titles, he did so in a surely different team with another body of workers and another unit of strength would further solidify Verstappen’s legacy as one of the sport’s most productive: the greats of the time.
After all, how many times have we heard the annoying word “He only wins thanks to his Adrian Newey rocket” (or a variation of it) in recent years?There’s one that Verstappen would probably like to get rid of: this is done without a problem. winning on an Allison (or someone else’s) creation.
On the monetary side, let’s assume that Mercedes wouldn’t open her checkbook wide for him.
The finances already exist, given that they already paid huge sums for Hamilton, and the financial strength of Daimler, INEOS and Toto Wolff would be to pay for all the demands of Verstappen’s camp: drivers’ salaries are not (yet) influenced by the budget cap. .
Joining a car giant like Mercedes would likely involve greater marketing tasks, but it could lead to a very lucrative career after F1 if total retirement is rarely that far away, as Verstappen himself has hinted in events, similar to what Fernando did. Alonso turns out to be chasing Aston Martin for his new contract.
However, while Red Bull goes all out for Verstappen when it comes to his teammates, Mercedes already has the driver it sees as its obvious heir to Hamilton in the user of George Russell.
Bringing in Verstappen would necessarily allow Russell to test and thrive in that role and could also lead to the loss of Andrea Kimi Antonelli, a driver who is considered to have the potential to be the next Verstappen.
Regardless, at the moment, Verstappen has a contract to race with Red Bull in the foreseeable long term and has in no way shown that he is looking for an exit or that he is in negotiations with any other team.
But if you think about the possibilities, you can’t do anything that promises success. The key at stake is that the replacement rule for 2026 means the team is a question mark.
And unless Verstappen is particularly pessimistic about RBPT powertrains or helps keep Newey long enough to help oversee the design of the new car, is this a good satanic deal, you know?
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