In the wake of the shortened and frenzied NBA draft and the tight and loose whirlwind of 2020, many writers and podcasters across the country have embarked on their annual internet flooding ritual with notes and headquarters about their offseason moves; or force ratings and projections on the relative strength of the league’s recently reformed rosters.
As anyone who has considered a rather gigantic pattern of such pieces and pods might have noticed, there was an express framing of the Denver Nuggets’ moveset as a total that has been showcased on a number of occasions, and quite universally throughout. the vast majority of reviews out of season. It was something like this:
Either the Nuggets took a turn for the worse after replacing outgoing loose agents Jerami Grant, Mason Plumlee and Torrey Craig with suboptimal replacements, or at least they controlled to waste the floor for other Western Conference powers by providing a series of agile and sufficiently forged lateral moves. on the progress. , but without a significant improvement. In fact, only one of two prospective outcomes may be at stake: The Nuggets have backtracked or kept their balance.
These discussions – whether or not Denver is slipping seem like the only two possibilities – comes down to whether the understudies that president of basketball operations Tim Connelly and his top workplace staff put together to fill the spots. Rotations left open through exiting loose agents will be adequate. enough to make up for losses. But the default assumptions built into this framing have the effect, perhaps accidentally in some cases, that little or no attention is paid to the option of the scales ending up tilting beyond this 0 point. Matrix where the Nuggets just didn’t stick . its release this offseason, however, has improved.
The explanation for why this narrative is thrown into this specific binary: are the nuggets worse or are they still the same? – is indeed understandable, as Denver’s peak offseason high-profile, visual occasion was the abrupt and, for both the Nuggets franchise and their fans, the genuinely unexpected loss of Grant on the loose. against the Detroit Pistons, where he went to pursue the Denver’s biggest role may not promise him.
Even as the surprise of Jerami Grant’s explosive pitch is dampened by the formidable play of replacement ahead JaMychal Green, whom Denver signed as a loose agent in the $ 15 offseason. Million contracts: Grant’s resolution firing the Nuggets was a tough and unmistakable blow for an organization that, in fact, believed it would re-sign and cement its position as a top and full contributor over an eternal championship contender.
Much more than the mere loss of a valuable “asset” to the team, was the outright rejection by a player of the cultural ethic of team loyalty rewarded through loyalty (and giant contracts), to prioritize the high-level acquisition. individuals. -a quality character who needs to assert himself in Denver, with an us-oriented mindset that, while honoring individual accomplishments, elevates the good fortune of the team as a higher goal.
The sting of Grant’s departure, which in turn follows the Nuggets’ failure to come to terms with the New Orleans Pelicans in a Jrue Holiday trade, has tangibly colored the entirety of Denver’s offseason with Combined shades of sadness for not having the desired maximum. effects of their offseason plans (being so close!), and worrying about what kind of plans B, C, and D were Connelly and the Nuggets’ front workplace may be born to make up for those missed opportunities, as Eche a look at the loose agents that may be left on the market.
Given all this, it is easy to end the general impression, the first component of which is certainly successful, that since the Nuggets’ offseason it has not gone as planned and has been clouded by its recent maximum developments. More high-profile (lack of vacation and waste of Grant) are pretty big disappointments, naturally it follows that Denver has probably gotten worse, or at least made no significant improvement.
But there is a third option, and one that few people seem to seriously consider:
What if the Denver Nuggets really this offseason?
Denver’s offseason and its current trajectory for 2020-2021 have not been entirely bleak. Far from it, in fact. And while many Nuggets enthusiasts despaired in the early hours and days of laid-back agency, as the team progressed through educational camp and its 3 preseason games, the reasons the Nuggets could really be Heading into this season, and there are plenty of them. – are emerging and fitting clearer.
So without further ado, here are X reasons the Nuggets will simply be a bigger team in 2020-2021 than they were last season.
There are rarely two tactics to do it, Nikola Jokic was obviously out of shape at the start of last season, and his point of interest and effort seemed to fit in with his conditioning. This year, however, a much leaner, fitter, and more athletic Joker has appeared at education camp, and if his 3 preseason outings are any indication, he’s ready to jump into the new season with an existing outing.
It’s “just” preseason, but in 3 preseason games, Jokic broke it in limited time with 14 points, 8. 7 rebounds and 6. 3 assists in 21. 5 minutes with a live shooting percentage of 0. 841, according to NBA. com. At 36 minutes, an approximation of the playing time of a typical starter (Jokic played 32 minutes last season), which translates to 23. 5 points, 14. 5 rebounds, 10. 6 assists, 1. 7 steals and 1. 7 Blocks, a line of destruction of worlds. in production. and efficiency.
As shown in the graphic above, the numbers do indeed reflect that the Joker started out slowly and as he worked his way into a larger form, he gradually increased his game point until he was able to. Getting Jokic off to a smart start bodes well not only for Denver to improve its winning percentage this season, but for the Nuggets as well to the many questions they face related to rosters and faster rotations.
When asked during a recent Zoom media call about Jokic, who appears to be in his most productive form to start a season, Michael Malone said: “He’s great, he’s engaged, he’s engaged, he’s positive. And I am very inspired and proud of him for that. And from Malone to many Denver players, Jokic is receiving accolades from all quarters for his commitment to his conditioning, his strong paint ethic and the leadership he has shown in the educational field.
What we are seeing is a Nikola Jokic who is more connected, more focused, more committed to victory, more aware and more serious about his leadership role as the most productive player on the team than we are. I had never noticed him until now. in his career. And this elevation in his mental state is evident on and off the field. If this edition of Jokic is here to stay, he will only continue to power the Nuggets throughout their course of years of continuous improvement, as Jokic at his most productive moment is a rising tide that lifts all boats.
Like Jokic last season, Jamal Murray tends to have slow starts, especially when it comes to his shooting percentages. And until his advancement into the playoffs in the bubble, Murray’s steady progression had tended not to make the biggest jumps that had been projected for him in virtually each and every season.
As I wrote for Forbes last July, before Denver’s playoff race, the Nuggets needed a high degree of consistency from Murray, whose regular season performances tended to be spotty. episodes of the game where it could, if it disappears, have no impact.
None of this is to belittle what has been a very smart season for Murray, and one in which he has made transparent progress, especially in his game and defense, even before the season was suspended in March. latest. But when NBA general managers voted that Jamal Murray would likely be the most likely to have a breakthrough season in their 2018 poll, the implication was that he would be on his way to fitting in a player of all caliber. Star. But that next layer of play, along with the honor of being officially chosen as an All-Star, hadn’t materialized for Murray as planned.
Until the bubble. Until the Nuggets reduced 3 games to one in a brutal and emotional playoff victory, then another and Murray’s momentous game.
The way Murray obviously fought his way to a higher point of the game in Orlando, first in his sensational shooting duel with Utah’s Donovan Mitchell, then when he and Jokic diced and cubed the Los Angeles’ defense The Clippers with his two-man game was a revelation on an All-NBA caliber merit that, if accomplished, would dramatically increase Denver’s odds of winning a championship.
But the question, to which we will soon see the first answers, focuses on the sustainability of the functionality of the Murray bubble the longer the normal season decreases. Murray’s improvement in consistency in the 2020 Playoffs over last year’s Playoffs was an encouraging first insight point to help his clients adapt more reliably.
As the 16-game player that he is, Murray stepped up his playoff functionality during the normal season, offering us a realistic high-level scorer that he has already been shown to be capable of. for at least semi-sustained stretches (i. e. 14 to 19 parts).
As the graph shows, Murray was particularly more effective on his postseason shooting and slightly more productive on scoring. Of course, you can’t expect him to go through the normal season that hard, but even without a big build-up in his score, he would have done it with a more effective shot on his own, closer to shooting percentages. of the playoffs. a particularly positive impact.
And that’s all we can hope to reliably build on the new offensive focus issues Michael Malone is having the team put into action this season – that is, take more 3s, hit more. the throw line loose and pick up the pace.
But taking more than three.
And since accepting more than 3 numbers is an express domain that Murray has long needed to organize, the purpose of this team aligns well with Murray’s transparent trail towards his power by streamlining his profile. shoot.
Among the NBA’s top trending targets, Murray has traditionally made few 3s, as the chart above was true last season as well. In 2019-20, Murray was in the 30th percentile for 3-point shooting frequency, winning 34% of his box attempts on goal. Bigger point guards, like Damian Lillard, Kyle Lowry, and Trae Young, have a tendency to take around 50% of their shots at 3 points, usually hitting them around the 80th percentile or higher at the 3-point frequency.
For Murray, just moving a decent chunk of his low-value mid-range shooting attempts (even though he and Jokic are effective from points of one) to 3 higher-value attempts deserves an impact. almost automatic to improve the overall efficiency of it.
Plus, the advanced extreme that you showed off in the bubble (and that I wrote about for Forbes) will also affect your shooting spectrum and loose shooting speed, which are additional steps toward higher maximum efficiency.
Combine all of this with Murray’s developmental trajectory of continuous improvement (as a player entering his fifth NBA season, it may be simple that he’s only 23), his unwavering paint ethic, and his maturing into a true leader. team, the huge leap in the bubble, and the fact that he’s obviously more willing to win than ever, and Murray’s assignment to be significantly ahead of season in power and consistency is obvious.
“Obviously I need to be an All-Star, I don’t need to miss an All-Star,” Murray said after a recent practice. “Quite difficult in the West, but I know I have the ability to do it, and I have done it at a great level when it meant the most.
And that’s where the challenge lies for Murray, who now no one would question, is fully capable of emerging at any instance where the stakes are higher and with his back to the wall, yet who can combine a little more than these things. when the level is also lower.
Either way, if Murray can check the boxes for consistency and efficiency, an improvement in counting stat production also deserves to follow, and his dream of fitting into an All-Star deserves to do so despite it all coming true.
And if Murray and Jokic continue to evolve into the most productive versions of themselves, the Nuggets will have a “Big Two” that can pass alongside the most productive in the league, and in the Star League that is the NBA, it only improves it. Denver’s dynamic duo would possibly be more than enough to cushion the team’s offseason losses.
And that’s even before those losses might not have been as bad as they first appeared, with JaMychal Green, Isaiah Hartenstein and PJ Dozier looking more than capable of picking up where Grant, Plumlee and Craig had left off.
And before that, the Nuggets’ recently rejuvenated bench unit promises to bring a more energetic, faster and more energetic team to the court, especially with the addition of Argentine point guard Facundo Campazzo, who will be a walking, speaking and ( for rival teams) blunt spark plug in bench.
And before that, Denver’s vital top offseason addition is a fully activated Michael Porter Jr. who, starting or not, will play a much bigger role for the Nuggets and, they hope, work. and grow up to what many think of him as a potential superstar.
Presumably, many outdoor watchers still have the Nuggets taking a step back, or perhaps holding on. They may be right, and we may not know it for at least a few weeks into the season.
But in cutting out Holiday Miss’s negative emotional pallor and Grant’s decay, and moving away to a more objective view, there are many points, and possibly more, than Denver’s improvement. So while many NBA conversations don’t even have this option on their radar screens, no one deserves to be surprised if, despite their seemingly disappointing offseason, the Denver Nuggets end up improving this season, in a giant component thanks to their two cornerstones of the franchise.
I’ve been with the Nuggets since 2005, writing for Forbes, BSN Denver, Roundball Mining Company, and more. Follow me on Twitter at @JoelRushNBA, where my reviews are my own.
I’ve been with the Nuggets since 2005, writing for Forbes, BSN Denver, Roundball Mining Company, and more. Follow me on Twitter at @JoelRushNBA, where my reviews are my own.