The Premier League’s top-successful club, Manchester United, has had tougher times in recent years and, as such, after employing Sir Alex Ferguson for up to 27 years, five coaches have held the climax since his retirement in May 2013.
The recent high is Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, a hero at Old Trafford when he was playing, had a time up and down, being close to the stock market at this time last year before preparing a series of amazing results.
This season, however, he began disappointingly for United, and if last season Solskjaer survived the dismissal, there is one thing that did not oppose him: West Bromwich Albion.
Professor Adrian R. Bell of Henley Business School and TalkSport has invented the “second economic law of football,” namely that betting on West Brom (and losing) is a very negative sign in terms of career. West Brom, and in Manchester, Roberto Mancini’s tenure ended after facing (even defeated) West Brom: Paolo Di Canio in Sunderland, Chris Hughton in Norwich, Craig Shakespeare in Leicester, Mick McCarthy in Wolves and Andre Villas-Boas in Chelsea.
The list is long and includes some illustrious names; Gerry Francis (Bristol Rovers, 1991), Steve Bruce (Crystal Palace, 2001), Frank McLintock (Leicester, 1978), Brian Horton (Oxford, 1993), Lou Macari (Stoke, 1997) and even Ossie Ardiles (Swindon, 1991) It all began with rivals Stoke in 1892 (Joseph Bradshaw), and rightly so, those rivals saw two more terms end at the hands of West Brom (Macari and Rory Delap 2019). Stoke are the biggest ones affected by Bell’s disease. Law, along with QPR (John Gregory 2007, Luigi Di Canio 2008 and Jim Magilton 2009) and Everton (Dick Molyneux 1901, Ian Buchan 1958, Harry Catterick 1973).
In total, one way or another, 46 coaches faced West Brom in their last game in charge, and 47 control periods were interrupted through West Brom (Chris Hughton was a victim of Bell’s law twice).
Therefore, all coaches deserve to be afraid to play in West Brom, but not just West Brom. In fact, the worst team imaginable a coach faces is truly Gillingham. Fifty-five periods of control ended after facing the Gills, the best in Kent. The most damaging time to face as manager is Leyton Orient or Bristol City, who in combination have destroyed 106 managerial terms. The third deadliest opponent a coach can face, enough, is Manchester United, which finished 49 control periods, two more than West. Brom.
Here are the ten worst groups most sensitive to face:
However, those groups have played a different number of matches, which means that the regularity with which coaches are eliminated can be very different. If we divide the total matches by the number of times a team has finished a coach, we get matches. consistent with the end, so to speak. When we do this, Gillingham is completely in a league of his own:
With Gillingham betting just 4,400 games against Leyton Orient’s 5,006, they’re way ahead in terms of games consistent with the end. Every 80 games, Gillingham finished a period of control, while Leyton Orient did it every 94 games, somewhat behind. The city only finishes one term every 98 games, or just two full seasons of matches.
I am professor of economics at the University of Reading, teach sports economics and do research. I have a lot of magazine articles, e-book chapters and others.
I’m a professor of economics at the University of Reading, teach game economics and research. I have published articles in journals, e-book chapters and other online articles on how we can be more informed about the gaming economy and how the economy can be used to help make in-game decisions.