Barcelona are the favourites, but the books are not very sure in this regard of expectations. That’s why we look from other angles and wonder why the home team is perceived as lukewarm against Napoli.
FC Barcelona will be hoping that the merit of the house will lead them to victory today when they host Napoli in the second leg of the Champions League round of 16. Our football odds favour the Catalans winning according to the agreement and moving forward.
The Spanish giants come into football in solid form, having kept 3 consecutive clean sheets and 8 games unbeaten. But Xavi is facing a full-blown injury crisis, which has left him with serious prospects for his midfield as his looks to triumph. in the quarter-finals for the first time in 4 years.
Napoli are in their third coach of the season, however, Francesco Calzona’s first game allowed them to draw 1-1 at home in the first leg. His side are unbeaten in their five games, and the attacking duo of Victor Osimhen and Khvicha Kvaratshkelia have returned to the form that terrified defences a season ago.
Our FC Barcelona vs Napoli Champions League picks and predictions for Tuesday, March 12 take a look at the betting markets and why it’s worth taking on the crowd.
There’s an explanation for why Barcelona have around -120 odds to win in regulation time, and that starts with their midfield. Frenkie de Jong was gone in less than an hour two games ago against Athletic Bilbao, and Barcelona have scored just once. purpose in 150 minutes since then.
If you step back and look at the first leg between those clubs, you’ll notice a common theme in almost every single chance Barcelona had that night: they were created through De Jong’s very passive vision and his long, localized passes, or through Pedri making brilliant penetrations. Move on to the final third.
In fact, it was a glorious ball from Pedri to set up Robert Lewandowski in the box for his only goal of the night. And like De Jong, Pedri will be forced to watch this game from the stands, and that’s one of the main reasons. That’s why I’m supporting Napoli to get a regulation result.
It has been a disappointing season for the reigning Serie A champions as Napoli changed direction just days before the first leg. Despite only one pre-match educational consultation, Napoli looked forged and caused disarray that night with their counter-tempo on the counter. attack. This speed also allowed them to cause several turnovers, either pressing Barcelona with the ball or intercepting passes.
One of them led to his goal, when Victor Osimhen used his strength to give the best first touch and turn on purpose to put the game at 1-1. It was the striker’s first game after his absence from AFCON, and he looked solid.
Since that night, Napoli have been in good form and their attack has advanced considerably. That includes their away form as they drew at Cagliari before handing Sassuolo a 6-1 defeat when Osimhen scored 3 straight goals in 16 minutes.
But choosing for Napoli to win or draw doesn’t just depend on who Barcelona is missing. It’s also about how he adjusts his ability to take care of Napoli’s speed. De Jong and Andreas Christensen got rid of their names after knocking down the Blues. -Dressed attackers who overtook them. But while De Jong has the speed to take care of that, Christensen does not.
Whether it’s Raphinha betting on midfield – as he did at the weekend – or Fermin Lopez, it’s a weak point when Napoli can run against them. Raphinha is a winger and Lopez’s 90 measures show that he is very bad at winning the ball back. and preventing players from passing it on.
TonyBet has double chance worth -109 and that’s the cost I’m on. Napoli’s speed will cause real disorder on the counter-attack, and Barcelona have all the pressure on them. They also don’t have the Camp Nou to spice up their performances, as Villargenuine arrived just a few weeks ago and defeated them 5-3 at their transition house.
I’m convinced that the Italian team has the weapons to score goals, and Barcelona remains the same without their two artistic threats. You have to take Napoli to at least force extra time, with the option of causing an upset.
My Best Bet: Draw or Double Chance in Naples – Yes (-109 at TonyBet)
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If Napoli need to get a result, then Khvicha Kvaratskhelia will be almost one of the main reasons. He has discovered a new life with Calzona, scoring in each of his last 3 games. He has 4 goals and a hand in that span after scoring just twice and failing to sign or lend a hand in his last 17 appearances. It will be a bigger risk than in the first leg.
On the other hand, I hope Alex Meret will have to answer the call. In Napoli’s last 4 Champions League matches, he has had a total of 26 shots on target, and he has made five saves in those matches. Expect him to make at least 4 here, as Barcelona are 4th in the festival with 5. 14 shots on target in both one and 90 minutes.
Learn how to bet on the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.
The three-way moneyline places Barcelona with a value between -115 and -120 in all areas. It’s out of the ordinary for them, especially as the home team in a Champions League knockout match. Meanwhile, Naples has a prize of up to $330, and the draw will award $285.
Barcelona’s value reached -160 after the first leg, but injuries to their midfielder tipped the scales in Napoli’s favour. Visitors used to be worth up to $450.
The crowd is looking for goals, even if both sides of the typical 2. 5-goal line remain reasonable. The Over can be received for -138, which is still a bit juicy but not excessive in some recent matches. The Under gives plus-odds of silver across the board.
Barcelona have scored just six goals in their last 4 games, and 4 of them against Getafe a few weeks ago when they still had Pedri and de Jong. In the first leg of this clash, a total of 3 goals were scored.
In Napoli’s five matches, the new control has seen 1-1 draws played on 3 occasions. The other two matches ended, adding a 6-1 win over lowly Sassuolo.
Given Barcelona’s many absences, with the addition of Gavi and Ferran Torres, they will lack firepower from the bench. This could still be the lowest level here.
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Barcelona: Raphinha F (Probable), Frenkie de Jong M (Out), Pedri M (Out), Gavi M (Out), Ferran Torres F (Out), Alejandro Balde D (Out). Napoli: Jens Cajuste M (Out) , Cyril Ngonge F (doubtful), Piotr Zielinski M (Out).
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