PSV and Dortmund meet in the round of 16 of the Champions League with a great chance for either club to reach the quarterfinals.
PSV have carved out a considerable gap in the Eredivisie with a 10-point lead over second-placed Feyenoord. They were able to comfortably end their time at their organisation, Arsenal, by getting effects against Lens and Sevilla. It’s been almost a decade since PSV last reached the Champions League round of 16 and they have an incredibly talented squad that can go far.
Dortmund won the organization of death against PSG, AC Milan and Newcastle, but they were very fortunate to do so. They’ve been on a good run in the Bundesliga lately, but they’ve moved on to a less difficult part of the schedule. PSV will be the most productive team they have faced since the draw against PSG in the last match at an organizational level, so let’s see what position they are in to let the competition pass.
Read on to see how I performed in PSV Eindhoven vs Borussia Dortmund.
Tuesday, February 20, p. m. ET, Primordial
bet365 odds. Get the up-to-date maximum football odds here.
Without a doubt, PSV are endemic in the Eredivisie this season and boast frankly outrageous underlying numbers. In 22 games, they have an expected goal differential of 49. 6 and an average of 3. 00 xG per 90 minutes, which is almost unheard of in modern football. Good luck has also been reflected in the Champions League. They were the second-best team in their organization and only played one bad game at Arsenal. After that 4-0 loss to Arsenal, they had a 1. 2 xGD in the remaining five games. .
The reason why things are going so well for PSV is Peter Bosz’s tactics. He wants his teams to play as quickly as possible in their transitions, employing vertical passes to test and put pressure on the opposing defensive line. The backrests push up and overlap, allowing PSV to overload the last line of defence.
When PSV don’t have possession, they are one of the most competitive urgent groups in Europe. They adopt the same principles of urgency as Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool, looking to win the ball back as temporarily as possible when they lose it. Compared to last season, PSV’s PPDA fell from 11. 7 to 9. 9 and its 90x peak turnover fell from 9. 7 to 11. 6.
Most importantly for PSV, they managed to keep their entire squad combined in the January transfer window, despite offers for some of their most productive players.
Somehow, Dortmund ended up being the most aware of the organization of death. I say that because they’ve been absolutely underwhelming for most of the season in the Bundesliga. They’ve managed decent form, but that’s generally opposed to the back of the team. meeting.
Since being beaten 1-1 by PSG to close out the organization phase, Dortmund has faced a team in the most sensitive part of the Bundesliga table. He is undefeated and his underlying stats are pretty good. However, when you focus on what they did defensively against some of the most productive organizations in Germany, it is alarming.
In four games against Bayern Munich, Leverkusen, Stuttgart and RB Leipzig, Dortmund have conceded 12. 3 expected goals. Even in the Champions League organization phase, they conceded 4 goals out of the expected 10. 6.
It’s the same challenge Dortmund have had all year. They don’t have elite blockers in the middle of the pitch and are an urgent average team at best, so the smart groups were able to easily get to their final third place and create plenty of chances.
However, Dortmund weren’t very smart on the property either. They are indecisive with the ball when they try to come from behind, so either groups can win the ball back or they are forced to play a lot of long balls on the field. That’s probably what they’ll have to do in the face of heavy pressure from PSV, so they won’t have control over the game and hope to be effective in transition.
Prediction
Dortmund have two characteristics here in the first leg. They can try to expand from the back in the face of intense pressure from PSV, in which they will probably make a lot of mistakes, or they can send the ball long and concede the match to the home team.
PSV were on speed in the Eredivisie but recently ruled Feyenoord in a 2-1 win, despite having just 40 of consistent possession, which looks like they are a team that can beat you in other tactics when in possession.
I’ve been told that PSV are a big favourite here, so I like their price of 120.
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