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In UEFA’s country coefficient rankings, Scotland finished last season in ninth position and the Czech Republic in fifteenth. With such a big gap, you wouldn’t expect the Czechs to take the biggest risk for Scotland’s 10 most sensible, and the champions’ direct access to the Champions League that comes with it.
However, due to the impressive performance of their clubs and the poor functioning of our clubs, this is precisely the scenario that is brewing ahead of Rangers’ match against Sparta Prague in Ibrox on Thursday. Given that the Czechs only have 4 organizations in Europe this season, compared to Scotland’s five, each of their effects is worth more coefficient problems. A win at the organizational level is worth two points and a draw is worth one point, which is then divided by the number of organizations the country had in Europe. This translates to 0. 5 coefficient problems per Czech win and 0. 4 problems per Scottish win.
After 3 organization matches, the 3 Czech organizations have achieved no less than 19 numbers out of the 27 available, while our 3 organizations have achieved six insignificant numbers. In addition, the Czechs won 4 more matches than our clubs won in the qualifying rounds.
The accumulation of these points means that they have managed to reduce the gap in the national coefficients from 7. 1 points to 4. 3 points behind us. In the rankings, they have so far managed to climb to 13th place, while we have been overtaken through Turkey and dropped to tenth place. With 0. 5 points per Czech win, our 4. 3-point lead equates to roughly nine Czech wins, so you might think we have an almost unassailable lead over them. Unfortunately, Nils Mackay, knowledge scientist at Opta stats, has the Czech Republic’s chances of finishing tenth with 34. 4% and puts Scotland’s chances at 31. 9% and less likely Austria at 24%. There are two words that explain why they will surely reach us. Bonus points.
In the Conference League, Plzen won all 3 of their matches, conceded only one goal, and is on track to finish first and get two bonus points for their victory in the organization (which is worth 0. 5 in the Czechs’ total). The other 3 organizations in your organization have points on 3 issues and therefore, with 3 matches remaining, your position as the organization’s winner is still assured.
To finish first in the Europa League, a team receives five bonus points (worth 1. 25 for the Czechs and 1 point for our teams). To finish second, it depends on the result of the round of 16, as opposed to the fall of the Champions League. out of the team. Winning this tie would give the runner-up 3 bonus points and wasting it would give them two points. This translates to 0. 75 or 0. 5 points for the Czechs and 0. 6 or 0. 4 points for the Rangers, depending on the outcome of the circular. of 16.
Slavia Prague are second in their Europa League group, three points behind Jose Mourinho’s Roma but five points behind third and fourth place. As a result, Slavia are also almost guaranteed a top-two position and the bonuses that come with it. They lost 2-0 in Rome and will play the second leg in Prague this week, so any result below 2-0 will mean they will most likely reach the end of the moment.
Given that Celtic and Aberdeen only managed a draw each in 4 and 3 games respectively, it is unlikely that they will add much more problems to their difficult recent games, especially since Celtic come to Rome and Aberdeen are 2. 3 away from home. This concentrates the maximum of our hopes and we concentrate on the important Europa League match in Glasgow on Thursday.
Rangers and Sparta are tied on four points, so the winner of this match will be the big favorite to finish second. They are just two problems for Betis, but either team would face a tough challenge to overcome the Spaniards, who are likely to move to nine points at home to Aris this week. Above all, whoever finishes 3rd and qualifies for the round of 16 of the Conference League receives ZERO bonus points. Therefore, if Rangers finish second, they will not only add at least 0. 4 bonus points to the Scottish overall (0. 6 points if they win the round of 16 and triumph in the round of 16), but they would also relegate the Sparta to third or fourth place. position and would prevent them from charging additional bonus numbers to Czech in general. A win that night is also worth 0. 4 points to Scotland’s total, so a home win could mean a difference of more than one coefficient point, while a Sparta win would almost effectively mean throwing Scotland away from their position among the top 10 and automatic Champions League. access for next season’s SPFL champions to spend with him.
In short, Scotland, who are in tenth place, have a 4. 3-point lead over the Czechs, who are in 13th place. Assuming Plzen finishes first and Slavia second in their respective organizations, their bonus point gain will reduce the lead to 3. 3 points. At 0. 5 points per win In the organization phase, two more wins for the team would further reduce the lead to 1. 3 points. If Sparta beats the Rangers at Ibrox and the moment ends, our advantage will suddenly disappear. Of course, even if the Rangers won and progressed in Europe after Christmas, we would still be under pressure from the Czech organisations in the circular of the 16th, but at least we would have a track to protect.
In tournaments with the new format, UEFA’s total prize money will rise from around 40 per cent to £4. 4 billion, and with 75 per cent of clubs in the Champions League, the effect of Thursday night’s match at Ibrox may make the difference between next season’s SPFL champions who will earn more than £35 million in the Champions League. Champions League, compared to around €15 million in the Europa League.
In theory, all of Glasgow would deserve to be satisfied with a win for Rangers on Thursday, as it would especially boost Scotland’s chances of finishing in the top 10.