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In Ukraine’s domestic market, the National Bank is the star of the show. The regulator is expected to adopt some other resolution on interest rates this week.
Markets haven’t fared well this week. Investors and speculators continued to sell, causing the S index to lose about 140 points.
In addition, visits by all major Western leaders have helped Netanyahu and company stay in the field. Immediate revenge. The truth is that oil is back at just under $90 a barrel. Corporate reporting exerts a slight influence on markets, all of which can attract investors. However, corporate news seeks to pull the market out of the loophole, for example. for example, Amazon, whose reports were a pleasant surprise.
Things remain very positive in the US economy itself. The latest quarterly GDP data shows growth of 4. 9%. However, the peculiarity of American statistics is that to obtain comparable figures, for example with Ukraine, you have to divide this figure by 4. – bring knowledge to a quarterly pace. However, this figure is still impressive even with such manipulations, as it seems that the US economy is as far from recession as Shakhtar (Ukrainian soccer club) is from Barcelona. This allows the former head of the Federal Reserve of the United States Treasury to attribute the rise in interest rates to a smart economic situation, still aimed at a soft landing, which last year, in a context of record inflation, seemed almost a miracle. The US House of Representatives, despite everything, capable of deciding on a new president. Even if he is a Trumpist, this brings both a solution to the fiscal crisis, which is essential for the markets, and a vote in favor of Ukraine, which is important for Ukraine to a large extent. more than for investors (with the exception of investors in Ukraine. debt).
The latter (investors in Ukrainian debt) are not yet in a hurry to celebrate. Since Johnson (the bad Johnson, unfortunately), now the new president, loves Trump more than his mother, at least in public, many in Ukraine have already begun to scatter ashes over their heads, predicting a whole disaster. At the same time, before and after the vote, the new president did not oppose aid to Ukraine (probably a condition for him for the general Republicans). a song from the old Republican Party song that cash likes to count and control. So while there does not appear to be a unified vote in favor of aid to Israel and Ukraine and aid will be divided, so far there is nothing to recommend a situation where there will be no vote for aid at all. At stake is $61 billion.
Regardless, the Ukrainian Eurobond segment has been following global markets all week and has fallen amid emerging rates around the world.
In the domestic market, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) was the soloist. The regulator is expected to make some further ruling on interest rates this week. The consensus in the market was that the NBU would cut the interest rate by two percentage points. to 18%. Against this backdrop, the local bond market ran a deficit, which helped the Finance Department lower yields when it came to borrowing again. Then came the regulator’s surprises, which analysts and bankers aren’t used to seeing as a smart tone. First, the bond market was surprised by the hawkishness of the NBU, which immediately cut the interest rate from 20% to 16%. Then he was surprised by his creativity when it became clear that the actual rate cut, i. e. the cash burden for the banks, had not in principle occurred. This will contribute to the stability of the hryvnia, which strengthened at the end of the week, either on the interbank market or on the black market. Even if it’s for a few kopecks, but the fact remains.
The creativity of the National Bank will now ease the pressure on the regulator from politicians, who see the rate of reduction and begin to compare it with other countries in the world, especially those where there is no full-scale war, accusing the NBU of suffocating the economy. Each of these politicians will now receive a presentation with a graph of the rate of reduction, which provoked crazy envy among the recent heads of Turkey’s Central Bank, before Erdogan’s significant turn towards a common sense in the economy, that we do not know how to protect the independence of the regulator in such a way that it opposes the Turkish sultan and his economic views.
In fact, Turkey is showing common sense on economic issues and continues to raise the rate of reduction even more sharply than the Central Bank of Ukraine is cutting it in paconsistent. This week, the rate rose to 35 percent, showing how painful it is to treat an overlooked chronic disease. As if he wanted to tell Ukrainian politicians to stay out of the reach of the BNU. It turns out that Ukraine’s GDP is developing even more than the U. S. GDP. The third-quarter expansion figure, when GDP grew by 9% in September, if it hadn’t shown it to Trump and company; otherwise, it will not be easy to start getting Ukraine to pay for a wall on the border with Mexico, without knowing how we know how to build and above all finance walls on the border. The extension in the third quarter is mainly due to good weather, which resulted in a harvest well above expectations. The NBU is due to revise GDP expansion for this year and now expects economic expansion closer to 5%.
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