The worst thing about betting on an underperforming derby is wasting an underperforming derby. On Monday night in west London, Chelsea, distributor of €1. 1 million in transfer fees over the past two years and owner of the fourth highest estimated salary in the Premier League (according to Capology), beat Newcastle, by some definitions, the richest club in the world’s richest league. by a margin of 3-1.
The win didn’t really do any good for Chelsea (they’re still 11th in the table, eight points behind sixth-placed Manchester United (another worse performance), but at least dragged Newcastle further into the mud. The Magpies, who qualified for the Champions League for the first time in 20 years last season but finished bottom of their group, are now tenth, just one point ahead of Chelsea. Assuming England is functional in this year’s UEFA competitions and is smart enough to win a fifth Champions League bid (and therefore a seventh-place finish in a UEFA competition), then, barring an FA Cup title, Newcastle only has a 38% chance of betting on Europe after the season. according to Opta’s strength ratings, while Chelsea’s is 31%.
Both will be on any underperforming list in 2023-24, but what explains their struggles?And who joins them on this list?
Below are seven groups that fit into the label in two ways. Three (Chelsea, Manchester United, Sevilla) are here because their estimated salaries are too high for their position in the table to be so low. Four others (Napoli, Newcastle, Lazio, Union Berlin) are there because their current speed is much slower than what qualified them for the Champions League this season.
Let’s take a look at the stats of some of this year’s most disappointing.
State of the League: Place, 39 numbers in 27 games
What the Stats Say: If You Don’t Tip the Scales, You Don’t Win the Game
If you squint closely, you can see some hope at Stamford Bridge. Chelsea have suffered 17 problems in their last nine league games and lost to what was necessarily Liverpool’s C team in the League Cup final, still reaching the League Cup final. They are also in the quarter-finals of the FA Cup.
In other words, it might be worse: it might be last season, for example, when Chelsea finished 12th in the Premier League, lost in the third round of any of the domestic cups and were knocked out of the Champions League by Real Madrid. in the quarter-finals.
Chelsea’s xG differential in 2023-24 (9. 7) is fifth in the league, suggesting that they have been a bit unlucky in generating only a 2-goal differential. In fact, finishing has been a factor at times for the Blues: Nico Jackson attempted 53 shots. rated a team-best 12. 6xG, scored just nine goals, while midfielders Enzo Fernandez and Conor Gallagher scored five goals from shots worth 8. 1 – and goalkeepers Robert Sanchez and Djordje Petrovic have each allowed more goals than xG for opponents’ shots. The goal suggests. At the same time, their nine-game streak met the same fate: they scored the sixth-best overall point in the league, compared to the ninth-best xGD.
I’ll use an American football term to describe Chelsea’s biggest challenge this season: position on the field. Opponents’ possessions at the top of the pitch (36. 2 metres from goal, 14′) than Chelsea’s (35. 0, 11′). The groups tip the scales in their favor.
Chelsea don’t.
Coach Mauricio Pochettino is known for not exerting pressure, and Chelsea have done well this season: they rank ninth in goals scored after big turnovers, sixth in attacker possessions, third and fifth in passes allowed consistent with defensive action (PPDA, a measure of defensive intensity). Unfortunately, the warring parties are just as smart at putting pressure on them: they are 15th in opposing possessions from third offensively and tied for 12th in goals allowed in major turnovers. Their breakdowns have been especially costly.
Considering that (a) they’ve started with 24 other players at least once in the league, and (b) more than a portion of those starters are 23 years old or younger, this is perhaps to be expected. But if Chelsea really want to expand in the coming seasons, they want especially in the fight for position on the pitch.
State of the League: Place, 47 numbers in 28 games
What the Stats Say: A Fundamental Failure in Defense
Generally speaking, salary correlates well with success. This makes a lot of productive sense: the most productive players tend to be the most expensive (and if they’re not the most expensive, they probably will be very soon). According to salary estimates, six of the seven teams with the highest wage bills in Europe have qualified: PSG (first), Real Madrid (second), Bayern Munich (third), Manchester City (fifth), Barcelona (sixth) and Arsenal (seventh). for the quarter-finals of the Champions League.
The only big spenders who didn’t sign up for this party?The Red Devils have the fourth-highest estimated salary (€240. 8 million per year), and in 2023-2024, that money has earned them a prime position in their Champions League organization and they currently finish in sixth position in the Premier League.
United’s attacking numbers have been mediocre this year: they are 13th in passes scored lately, much of that being due to a sustained poor finish from the trio of Bruno Fernandes, Casemiro and Antony (combined: five shot passes worth 11. 1). They’re tied for eighth in shots consistent with ownership and ninth in xG consistent with shooting, which is rarely smart enough overall, but sometimes deserves to produce at least a mid-table score. However, when things go really wrong, it’s because of incredibly passive defense.
Gab Marcotti says Erik ten Hag thinks conscientiously when talking about Manchester United’s numbers so as not to open Pandora’s box.
Manchester United have lost 16 matches in all competitions this season. In those 16 games, they have allowed 40 goals: at least two out of thirteen and at least 3 out of nine. (They also conceded 3 goals in a Champions League draw (against Galatasaray and 3 in a win over Wolves. ) Goalkeeper Andre Onana has made some devastating mistakes this season, however, comparing his goals allowed to the xG following his opponents’ shots for shots on target, he has allowed 5. 1 fewer goals than expected in the Premier League. They have recorded an incredible 1. 4 goals lost or more in 4 games, racking up one-goal wins against Copenhagen and Aston Villa and a goalless draw against Liverpool.
When Onana is good, he’s great, and that’s one of the main reasons why United are averaging a pretty fortunate 2. 1 points per game in 0-1 games.
The defense gives him a lot of work. While United don’t consistently make a lot of high-quality shots (they’re third in the league in xG consistently with shots), the number of shots they consistently make is overwhelming at times. Only seventh-placed West Ham and 18th-placed Luton Town and last-placed Sheffield United consistently committed more shots consistent with possession:
Like Chelsea, United have been destroyed through occasional self-destruction. Opponents generate 37. 0 maximum turnovers consistent with open play (only Sheffield United and Nottingham Forest commit more) and start 9. 6% of their possessions in the 3rd attack (fifth). As a result, United generate fewer touches in the attacking area and in the box than they allow. It is also governed by counter-attacks and set-pieces.
The sixth position is appalling for what they spend, but it can be argued that the sixth position is also a bit lucky.
State of the League: Place, 44 numbers in 28 games
What the Stats Say: A Drop in Shooting and Finishing Is to Blame
Napoli are the anti-United in 2023-24 – they are doing very well in the field of number of shots (in terms of shots attempted and allowed, they are dead even with Serie A leaders Inter), but they are woefully deficient in terms of shots. quality:
Last season, Napoli dominated the Serie A group by drowning their opponents in the number of goals, above-average quality of shots and elite finishing. Victor Osimhen and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia scored 38 goals in the league (more than Napoli’s share of total). ) and 14 assists, and Napoli averaged an average of 0. 15 xG per shot overall (0. 13 from the scoring duo) and finished at a higher level: they scored 75 goals from shots worth 66. 0 xG.
It’s been a tough season. Osimhen missed a month and a part with a hamstring injury and played only 17 of the 28 games; which has attenuated the gross balance of the Osimhen-Kvaradona duo (so far: 21 goals, seven assists). Beyond that, however, the quality of shots is rarely very good, as can be seen above, and Napoli’s finishing has regressed considerably.
While Osimhen and Kvaratskhelia continued to finish well, as a team they scored just 42 goals on shots (47. 2 xG); Defensively, meanwhile, they went from third in xG allowed per shot to tenth, and their conflicting teams went from being inconsistent with their xG numbers of 4. 1 goals in 2022-23 to surpassing them with 9. 8.
Craig Burley describes everything that happened to Barcelona when they beat Napoli to qualify for the quarterfinals of the Champions League.
Whatever luck Napoli had in winning their first Scudetto in 33 years last season, it has been completely reversed because, ultimately, xG is coming for all of us. But even when Osimhen is healthy, they just haven’t been placed in as many favorable possessions. 65 percent of their shots came from inside the box (compared to 69 percent last season), which contributed to the fact that they scored 32 percent of their shots on target (compared to 36 percent).
They would possibly dominate the number of shots like Inter, but they simply balance out in terms of shot quality. Add bad luck and be in the seventh position and be their third coach of the season. Of course, it can also be worse. Napoli were mediocre in terms of the quality of their shots: Sevilla were an abject disaster.
State of the league: 14th place, 28 numbers in 28 games
What the stats say: They’re bad, but the groups under them are much worse
Sevilla are on this list because their estimated salaries are almost as high as those of all the La Liga players who named Real Madrid or Barcelona, but the truth is that they have been in a state of disarray for a while. They hired 3 managers in 2022-2023 and found themselves in the relegation zone as recently as March 11 before rallying to finish in 12th place. Meanwhile, a series of perfect internal effects resulted in another run to the Europa League final, where they beat Roma. in prisons. This earned them a position in the Champions League despite a wasted record in the league.
The only explanation why they are still not too worried in a relegation fight at the beginning of March is that the backline of La Liga is terrible this season. They have only 28 problems with six wins in 28 games, but that’s still enough to stay. They have six transparent relegation zone issues at the moment. Injuries have completely ruined any hope of progress: they have 29 other players at least once in the league. Only striker Lucas Ocampos has more than 19 games, and 14 other players, through my To Count, have missed at least five games due to injury and, for that reason, their summer signings have hardly helped.
Defensively, they have consistently brought in Loic Bade from Nottingham Forest for €12 million and an estimated salary of €3. 3 million each year, according to Capology; They also signed Sergio Ramos from PSG for €2. 2 million per year. Bade and Ramos have 19 and 18 caps respectively, but are among six other centre-backs who have at least once due to injuries and movements.
In attack, Sevilla have signed Dodi Lukebakio from Hertha Berlin for €10 million and an estimated salary of €3 million per year; They also lured Real Madrid veteran Mariano Diaz for an estimated price tag of €5. 2 million a year, the team’s second-highest salary. They totalled just 11 starts and 979 minutes in total, and Lukebakio’s goal against Almeria on Monday was only his third of the season. . That’s 3 more than Diaz scored.
Incongruous and inconsistent programming has produced predictable and inconsistent results. Sevilla created almost the fewest high-quality chances in the big five leagues (which we’re going to summarise as shots worth 0. 2 xG or more) and conceded almost the most.
For all the bad luck they’ve had in the injury department, at least they’re benefiting from the bad teams around them. Sevilla have scored just 38 goals in 38 games, a total that would have seen a team relegated in 2021-22. and 2022-23. But they’re safe. . . For now.
State of the league: tenth place, problems in 28 games
What the stats say: A shaky defense means they’re falling behind. . . And then they get left behind.
Sevilla’s injuries have been so dramatic that Newcastle’s scenario is almost stable. Well, they only have 24 other players, and by my calculations, they lost 12 players to injuries for at least five games!It’s nothing! That’s a lot if you take a look at last year’s four most sensible ones, though. And considering the way injuries (and other issues) have affected the defense in particular: goalkeeper Nick Pope has just 14 league games, centre-back Sven Botman has 15, and much-loved new defensive midfielder Sandro Tonali has just five due to an 18-month playing suspension; The Magpies have experienced an overall collapse in that aspect of the ball.
Newcastle have been deficient in each and every way, the defence can be bad in 2023-24. He ranks 13th in shots allowed by ownership and 17th in xG allowed by shot. They also allowed 71 shot attempts with fewer than two defenders between shots and goals; It’s also the 17th.
Like Chelsea and Manchester United, their pre-season play has been somewhere between mediocre and poor. They rank ninth in most turnovers, 13th in opposing possessions from 3rd offensive, and 18th in opponent ball recoveries in 3rd offensive. When they have to open the game from a wasted position, the crisis comes.
Do you want to know how you can get pretty low on the board in a short period of time?Going from trailing in just 13% of possessions (moment in the Premier League) and averaging 1. 1 points per game from one position (third) to being behind 24% of possessions (seventh) and an average of 0. 2 points per game from an Array position (18). This season they have been losing in 15 games and have only controlled 3 draws and 12 defeats; On Monday against Chelsea they fell in the 6th minute, and even after equalizing just before half-time, they conceded two goals in the second quarter and lost 3-2.
Newcastle’s defence has been wobbly all season, and while the state of the game demands that they devote additional resources to attacking, the warring sides counterattack them vigorously: they are 18th in goals allowed on the counter-attack. I would simply give them a spot at a European festival next season.
State of the League: Place, 40 numbers in 28 games
What the stats say: Regression to the mean, because conceding too many shots at the end hurts them
The regression to the mean is undefeated and hits us all.
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In 2022-23, Lazio turned a good fortune into a wonderful season. They only ranked eighth in Serie A in terms of xG differential and attempted fewer shots than their rivals during the season; Somehow, they still controlled the final moment of the league. They won games with an absurdly passive defense because (a) Ivan Provedel, probably the most productive goalkeeper in the league (he had a 76% save percentage and allowed 3. 6 fewer goals than the post- (suggested xG shooting numbers), and (b) the veteran trio of Mattia Zaccagni, Sergej Milinkovic-Savic and Felipe Anderson particularly outperformed their performances in attack, converting shots worth 19. 5 xG into 28 goals.
This year, Milinkovic-Savic is in the Saudi league, while Zaccagni, Anderson and Provedel are once again lethal. Zaccagni and Anderson scored six goals on shots worth 6. 1 xG, and Provedel allowed 2. 1 more goals than the post-shot xG suggests. In terms of xG spread, Lazio has risen from eighth to tenth place, but as they are no longer outperforming, they now also rank ninth in terms of problems and target differential.
Even if you’ve got Ciro Immobile at the helm, it’s ridiculously tricky to play in the top four when your warring sides are trying to get more shots than you are. In fact, over the past 10 seasons, only eight teams in the five major leagues have averaged at least 1. 75 points consistent with a game with a negative shooting margin:
Teams averaging at least 1. 75 points per game with a negative shot differential, over the last 10 years:
1. Girona 2023-24 – 2. 21 Consistent Gambling Problems (PPG) So Far
2. Nice 2016-17 — 2. 05 points per game
3. Sevilla 2014-15 – 2. 00 points per game
4. Lazio 2022-23 – 1. 95 points per game
5. Borussia Mönchengladbach 2014-15 – 1. 94 points per game
6. Arsenal 2018-19 – 1. 84 points per game
7. Eintracht Frankfurt 2020-21 – 1. 76 points per game
8. Villarreal 2016-17 – 1. 76 points per game
Of the groups on this list that last year’s Lazio or this year’s Girona did, all six saw their average points per game drop the following season, and to an average of 0. 44 points. Lazio is down 0. 47 lately, which is almost perfectly in line. with those averages. (That probably also tells us something about what might happen in Girona next season, but we’ll get to that later. )
League status: 14th place, 25th in 25 games
What the stats say: The quality and shots have decreased, as have their results.
It turns out that not even the magic of the Stadion An der Alten Forsterei – the highest magical position in the world, in this writer’s humble opinion – can allow you to challenge the xG gods.
In the three seasons between 2020-21 and 2022-23, in which they enjoyed their most productive Bundesliga final (sixth), then dominated it (fifth) and then returned (fourth, with a Champions League bid), Union Berlin created an overall squad. xG differential of only 8. 4, but they turned it into a goal differential of 26. They were as smart as anyone when it came to keeping defenders behind the ball and crowding the shooting lanes, and they seemed adept at turning familiar attack patterns into consistent ones, a success. They’ve defied math for so long that you can almost convince yourself they’ll do it forever.
No one demands forever situations. This year’s xG Spread: -8. 0. This year’s Goal Differential: -18.
But it’s even worse than that. In all competitions, they have generated a positive xG differential in only 10 matches (not very good), but they have also managed to win only five of those 10 matches with a draw and 4 losses. Their situation has worsened and their lot has worsened. .
The defense has regressed, but the big challenge is for the Union to no longer turn mediocre shots into opportunities.
Union was never a team with a lot of ball ownership and a lot of shots, however, they made up for it by shooting shots that they did very well. They are now near the back of the Big Five rankings in terms of shot attempts. and shot quality.
It was going to be a strange year for the Eisern Union. The club didn’t need to expand too much just to secure a spot in the Champions League, so they tried to sign affordable veterans like striker Kevin Volland, winger Robin Gosens and defender Leonardo Bonucci. as well as forwards David Datro Fofana and Brenden. It didn’t work out: Union finished last in their Champions League organization and, at one point, went winless in 16 straight games, and Bonucci, Fofana and veteran forwards Sheraldo Becker and Kevin Behrens are already gone. They’re probably no longer in a relegation battle; Thanks to advanced play at the start of 2024, they are seven points above the relegation zone with nine games to play.
But gravity returned to Köpenick.