It’s the biggest football story in a long time. Lionel Messi has asked to leave Barcelona, threatening to end a date that may never really end.
According to Marcelo Bechler of Esporte Interativo, who announced the news of Messi’s preference to end an era at the Camp Nou (and broke the Neymar-PSG deal in 2017), the Argentine captain will play for Manchester City, where he would. Reunion with former coach Pep Guardiola.
The two achieved glorious things in combination between 2009 and 2011, namely two Champions League trophies in 3 years, a fascinating football game. Messi has only won the trophy once since, in 2015, while Guardiola has not rededd the top since his last win. The feeling that they want others to come out victorious again is strong.
If Messi is released from his contract with Barcelona, City will not be his only contender. But the truth of who can point it out has already clarified the package. In fact, it feels as if the City is staying already, and Messi’s father went to Manchester to talk about the conditions, according to RAC1 and TyC Sports (h/t Daily Mail).
So, with that in mind, let’s take a look at how Messi would replace Guardiola’s initial XI, form and technique in forms, presenting the apparent benefits, and unexpected drawbacks, of each.
As we go through the options, we will see them in the context of football at the highest level. We know that City would weigh your group average with Messi in the team, so we are interested in how the technique works against Bayern Munich, Liverpool or Paris Saint-Germain. What advantages can you give them? Is there any downside?
The obvious: 4-3-3, wing
Obvious Pro: Messi cutting off his left foot.
The 4-3-3 is The central form of Guardiola and the one Messi has played more than any other. Due to its upbringing in Barcelona, the club is obsessed with this specific form, making it a quick fit for each and every match.
Messi has the planet’s maximum damaging left foot, so putting him in a position to cut internally and shoot, haggle or create would be the apparent way to deploy it. A predictable move, of course, but when you’re as smart as he is, you can’t help it, even if you know exactly what it’s going to do.
Surprisingly, unless someone else makes their careers, the right look is a defensive weakness.
Here’s an awkward tip about Messi right now: it doesn’t run much, which causes a slight tactical headache at the level.
He’s a genius, the most productive player in the world, so there’s a strong argument he shouldn’t have to run. He’s already spent 83.1% of a Classic walking, for Marca, and he’s run it in spite of everything.
But the technique that the last two Champions League winning teams, Liverpool and Bayern Munich, take as a team: they press, look like machines, are full of players who are elite footballers but also elite athletes. City, Messi’s fate under discussion, works the same way.
The disparity between the type of distance Messi has traveled according to the game and the distance traveled through the 3 most sensitive clubs is dramatic. Again, he is 33 years old and his skills can overcome that, but from a purely stylistic point of view, Messi weakens the component of the field in which he plays defensively.
City would like to fix that by deploying players to make his career in place. Kyle Walker is the best right-back candidate, while the right central midfielder and defensive midfielder will spend a lot of time adrift to cover the flank. You will be vulnerable to an Alphonso Davies-Nelson Semedo situation, as cracks will arise.
The Valverde: 4-2-3-1, No. 10
Obvious pro: Messi’s genius from the center while masking his defensive weakness.
Then… the character of Ernesto Valverde. You did a very smart job, didn’t you?
The 56-year-old was fired as Barcelona’s coach in January, in part because his taste for the game was considered inferior to that of the club. They were looking for high-energy tiki-taka magic, not the most physically and defensively forged technique he brought.
But the last seven months have been disastrous, portraying Valverde’s technique in a new, more positive light. It’s not anti-football; he simply identified the team’s limitations and built a formula that masked them and made the most of Messi.
Messi has wvoced constant attacking from a more central position, a loose role of number 10, contributing almost nothing to the defense. But subsidized through two more competitive midfielders – one of whom was Paulinho, Ivan Rakitic or Arturo Vidal, and the other Sergio Busquets – the midfielder kept in combination on his way to multiple trophies.
For the City to use Messi as the number 10, where he can simply dictate the game, collect the keys, bond with Sergio Aguero and destroy groups in the hole, they would have to replace the shape in 4-2-3-1. We noticed them playing there in June. But permanently? It’s another story, with a serious domino effect.
Surprising scam: Kevin De Bruyne on the right?
When the City operates in 4-2-3-1 form, this 10th place is De Bruyne’s. If Messi joins and that’s how they’ll get it, he’d put a main question mark on how De Bruyne inserted himself next to him.
Against weaker teams, he can fall deeper and play in the midfield pivot with an anchor type (Rodrigo or Fernandinho). But unlike the upper sides, it’s probably not a formula that can work. In this case, two players with physical and defensive conscience are needed, such as the Rodrigo-Ilkay Gundogan association used through Guardiola in August.
Most likely, Messi, as No. 10, will end up pushing De Bruyne down the right flank. This would allow you to take the same positions just outside the opposite area, right, and make bright centers for Raheem Sterling on the rear post. But that would deprive the look of his hard dribble in the middle and some raw speed on the flank.
However, it is a commitment that is slightly valued. Messi would be arguably the most productive in the world, but De Bruyne is among the five most sensitive; the net gain from meeting in Argentina at the expense of the KDB would be possibly minimal.
The Romantic: 4-3-3, fake 9
Obvious pro: Peak Barcelona, we are.
The Barcelona 2009 and 2011 groups have played some of the football that the world has never noticed, and are very likely to see it. And they had two things in common: either they had Guardiola at their head and they were either guided by Messi as a false nine.
The false nine is an express tactical role that uses a retired lone striker, a striker who continually falls into midfield to pick up the ball instead of running the channels, running or fighting with the central defenders.
To play this role, you must be incredibly good: your touch will have to be perfect, your liaison game in place, your tactical awareness through the roof. And you must also maintain your percentage of the final market. Flexible full.
They are the paintings of those around the false nine advancing so that they can detect them with bullets crossing, running into the spaces created through the false drifting and pulling the defenders out of their position.
In 2009, Messi had Thierry Henry (left) and Samuel Eto’o (right) as other strikers. There are two 9s that cut the flank that work in the center, because Messi has created an area for them to move there. The targets set were astronomical.
In 2011, he had David Villa (left) and Pedro (right). Again, it rained like the combined 3 for a ridiculous effect.
This formula is reproducible in Manchester. Guardiola how to train him, Messi unlocks it, the center of field 3 is maintained, the role of De Bruyne remains the same and there is enough speed in the band to make it work.
This would also serve as a defensive solution discussed above.
In 2009 and 2011, a more fit and physically more powerful Messi led strong pressure from the center. You may not do so in 2020, at the age of 33. But as the center of the first line, you may have the task of blocking overtaking lines in midfield instead of hunting, harassing and running.
This, combined with a midfield full of life to three men, would be enough to make this formula paints even opposite to the best.
With amazing: What about Aguero?
Sergio Aguero has undergone several transformations as a player since Guardiola’s arrival in Manchester in 2016, taking on each and every challenge.
He is fitter when asked, defends better from the front and multiplies his linkage with the midfielders. He is a complete striker, but his skills are much more varied than before Guardiola took over.
So, with that in mind, there is a chance that Aguero will play a very complex role, that he has some other rope in his bow.
There is also the possibility, at 32, that it will adapt so well, that Gabriel Jesus’ lack of speed and power or Riyad Mahrez’s agility means that he ends up having trouble breaking through the starting 11 in this lineup. .
Aguero’s friendship with Messi is a driving force that is discussed in discussions about Aguero’s possible transfer to the City. It would be somewhat ironic if Messi’s arrival saw him sing the position of Aguero and Guardiola reshape the look without him.
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All statistics WhoScored.com. All distance statistics travelled UEFA.com.