Although some key players are unavailable, there are still signs that Tottenham will face Burnley in this third-round duel. Find out below where the betting price falls on our FA Cup picks.
The FA Cup is back and on Friday Tottenham will face Burnley in the world’s third-biggest domestic cup competition.
It’s a special time of year when the third round of the FA Cup arrives and Spurs and Burnley face each other and dream of reaching the final at Wembley in May.
Can Spurs triumph in this draw against relegation-threatened Burnley?Don’t miss our loose betting picks for Tottenham vs Burnley to find out.
It would possibly be a one hundred per cent Premier League draw, but make no mistake, this is an FA Cup tie between Tottenham and Burnley.
The Premier League arguably would have taken a break this week to make room for the FA Cup, but we have to be fair and settle for it to overshadow this game and play out in the coaches’ minds. We occasionally see teams rotate their line-ups in the FA Cup and I wouldn’t expect to see anything else here.
Spurs will be forced to rotate with Son Heung-Min, Pape Matar Sarr, and Yves Bissouma all away on international duty at the Asian Cup and AFCON, respectively. Add that to a big injury list that features the likes of Micky van de Ven, James Maddison, and Cristian Romero, and we might see Ange Postecoglou unable to make wholesale changes.
Namely, Spurs have been the Premier League’s big performers this year and that’s partly due to the way Postecoglou has combined his team. They attack regardless of the opponent and it’s comforting to watch.
I also think that ideology is likely to mean ‘Big Ange’ might not want to rest as many players as teams often do. Combine that with Spurs’ long trophy drought and the possibility of winning the North London club some silverware makes this feel like an opportunity not to be wasted.
We’ll see some adjustments with Bryan Gil, Eric Dier and Fraser Forster having great chances to play, but whether it’s injuries or Postecoglou’s wishes, we’ll see some newcomers play. Watch Richarlison and Dejan Kulusevski get started in attacking positions, players who will cause Burnley upset.
Burnley themselves have some upheavals and with the club with five places secured in the Premier League, I think there’s a strong chance we’ll see manager Vincent Kompany make a significant rotation. That is, in fact, what I would do in your situation. A sensible priority is in the Premier League.
Regardless of Son, Maddison and others missing for reasons, this Spurs team is much better than Burnley. In front of their home crowd, under the floodlights at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, I expect them to win comfortably and with several goals.
After all, they have scored 42 goals in the Premier League, compared to Burnley’s 20, leaving a gap between the top two lines.
My best bet: Tottenham -1.5 (+135 at TonyBet)
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I expect to see less rotation in the Spurs squad due to a combination of injuries and players serving overseas, as well as Postecoglou’s philosophy. If they play close to their most productive team, they will win this one easily, just as they did when they beat Burnley 5-2 on the road in September.
I also maintain that the Spurs lead at half-time. They are a team that plays fast and comes out of the game quickly. If you dig deeper into the Premier League data, you find that Spurs have only lost two games at half-time, the second-best record in the league. With 19 goals in the first half, they scored more than anyone except Manchester City in the first 45.
Finally, I would also like to rate either group. We saw that in the last meeting of those two groups with Spurs winning 5-2 and we saw that in 75% of all Tottenham’s games in the Premier League either group scored. With injuries in the backline, Burnley are even more likely to score a comfort goal.
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I’m backing Spurs -1.5 as my best bet for Spurs vs. Burnley so it should be pretty clear who I favor on the moneyline but at -204, I wouldn’t recommend betting Spurs. It’s too short of a price for real value even though I’m certain they win. The draw at +360 or a Burnley win at +480 also don’t appeal to me.
You can get -154 in any of the groups to score, which turns out to be a better way to bet on the match. You can get over 2. 5 goals at -182 or under at 145. I wouldn’t, although I think we’re sure. Let’s look at more than 3 objectives.
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Tottenham: Ivan Perisic RW (out), Micky van de Ven CB (out), James Maddison CAM (out), Ryan Sessegnon LB (out), Manor Solomon FWR (out), Cristian Romero CB (out), Son Heung-Min FWR (out), Pape Matar Sarr CM (out), Yves Bissouma CM (out). Burnley: Jack Cork CM (out), Luca Koleosho LW (out).
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