For years and years, the New England Patriots reportedly covered their ears, closed their eyes, and claimed that Rob Gronkowski would play despite his hints of retirement at the end of his career. close assistance last season.
A year after featuring enthusiasts Matt LaCosse, Ben Watson, Ryan Izzo and Eric Tomlinson occupying the Patriots’ tight final position, Bill Belichick settled on Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene in the third round of the 2020 NFL Draft.
If all goes according to plan, Asiasi or Keene will emerge as leaders in the Patriots offense through the end of 2020. Izzo may start the season atop the tight intensity chart, but the Patriots have to wait for his reign. it will last. long.
So what can Asiasi and Keene Patriots realistically expect in the first year?
The most productive position to start seeking an answer turns out to be the 2010 NFL Draft when the Patriots picked Rob Gronkowski in the circular for now and Aaron Hernandez in the fourth circular.
Gronkowski as a rookie: 42 receptions, 546 yards, 10 touchdowns Hernandez as a rookie: 45 receptions, 563 yards, six touchdowns; 3 gate 47 yards
Of course, those that are likely to be unfair comparisons for Asiasi and Keene. Gronkowski is expected to be a long-term Professional Football Hall of Fame and Hernandez is expected to be an NFL Top 100 player before his arrest and conviction for murder.
Here are the rest of the Patriots’ rookie seasons since 2000:
Daniel Graham, 2002: 15 receptions 150 yards, TD Ben Watson, 2004: two receptions 16 yards David Thomas, 2006: 11 receptions, 159 yards, TD Jacob Hollister, 2017: 4 receptions, yards
Graham and Watson were first-round picks, Thomas a third-round selection, such as Asiasi and Keene, and Hollister an un recruited loose agent. Watson has played only one game as a rookie.
Thus, the tight ends of the rookie Patriots, Watson, averaged 28 receptions for 355 yards with 4. 5 touchdowns. It turns out like moderate prestige if a tight rookie emerges as a starter.
But let’s take a look at all the tight ends who drafted rookies since 2010 who have played at least games. These 93 players averaged 19 receptions for 207 yards with 1. 7 touchdowns.
Focusing on the closed wings of rookies written between the fourth and fourth rounds in the same time period sends an average statistical line of 21 receptions for 233 yards with two touchdowns.
The tight ends of the rookies drafted in the third inning from 2010 to 2019 averaged 22 receptions for 270 yards with two touchdowns.
The most productive third-round rookie tight finish since 2010 Tony Moeaki of the Kansas City Chiefs, who had 47 passes for 556 yards with 3 touchdowns. Jimmy Graham also had five touchdowns in 2010 as a member of the New Orleans Saints.
It has been a year for beginners.
As for more examples of tight rookie endings in the third round:
Mark Andrews, 2018, Baltimore Ravens: 34 receptions, 552 yards, 3 TDs Dawson Knox, 2019, Buffalo Bills: 28 receptions, 388 yards, two touchdowns
Evan Engram, chosen in the first round of the 2017 NFL Draft through the New York Giants, and Tim Wright, a flexible agent drafted through the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2013, are two other players for the season through a tight recruit since 2010; Wright had the peak productive season through a tight rookie after the first round since 2010.
Engram: receptions, 722 yards, six touchdowns
Hernández, for his part, the 3rd maximum productive.
The Patriots don’t have a strong reception frame behind Julian Edelman, quarterback number one, but third runner James White deserves to see a good deal of goals from Quarterback Cam Newton’s backfield. Newton, by the way, has strongly targeted the closed wings (when his decision is Greg Olsen) in his career as a player.
Here are some notable tight end seasons from Newton:
Olsen, 2011: forty-five catches, 540 yards, five TDs Jeremy Shockey, 2011: 37 catches, forty-five 5 yards, 4 TDs Olsen, 2012: 69 catches, 843 yards, five TDs Olsen, 2013: 73 catches, 816 yards, six Olsen TDs, 2014: 84 catches, 1008 yards, six Olsen TDs, 2015: 77 catches, 1104 yards, seven Olsen TDs, 2016: 80 catches, 1073 yards, 3 Olsen TDs, 2017: 17 catches, 191 yards, TD (seven games) Ed Dickson, 2017: 30 receptions, 437 yards, TDOlsen, 2018: 27 receptions, 291 yards, 4 touchdowns (nine games) Ian Thomas, 2018: 36 receptions, 333 yards, two touchdowns
Thomas, a rookie, drafted at the start of the fourth round, in 2018.
Therefore, the highest roof for Asiasi or Keene is Hernandez’s 2010 season: about 40 receptions for more than 500 yards with six touchdowns. Nothing more than this is unforeseen, but obviously you’d be welcome for New England.
The soil is a production at all.
A moderate expectation at the midpoint would be for Ian Thomas ‘2018 season: about 30 receptions for three hundred yards, dividing the difference between the NFL’s third-round pick out and the Patriots’ tight end.
The Patriots tight ends hit only 37 passes for 418 yards with two touchdowns in 2019. Watson led the way with 17 receptions for 173 yards. Asiasi or Keene will be able to beat that in 2020.
New England Patriots Photo