In two weeks, the small university in the city of Oxford, Miss. , will do what it does best: it will host a party.
It’s not a bachelor evening, it’s the biggest social event in the state in six months. More than 15,000 people are expected to attend, all accumulated on the Ole Miss campus at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, possibly masked and socially remote. The Rebels football team will provide entertainment, colliding with the Florida Gators to start the 2020 SEC season with a national television show at 11am on September 26.
But as the party becomes enraged inside, the symptoms of a pandemic multiply outside. Over the next week, Oxford has the difference of generating more new instances of COVID-19 consistent with the day (85 consistent with 100,000 inhabitants) than any other university in the city. The state of Mississippi, in fact, has one of the most positive seven-day percentages in the United States and has a more consistent infection rate than all two states. These two: Louisiana and Florida, also football schools that plan to host games soon with up to 25,000 more people present.
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According to CDC data, seven of the 8 states with the highest infection rates have at least one SEC team, and nine of the league’s 14 school cities produce enough daily instances to be “uncontrollable spread” sites, according to the Harvard Global Health Institute. Harvard Metrics uses a seven-day moving average of new daily virus instances consistent with a population of 100,000. More than 25 instances are uncontrollable.
If the SEC is bad, the Big 12 is worse. Four of the 10 primary college cities out of the 12 generate an infection rate of at least 50 instances In the knowledge collected from September 1 to 8, the 12 primary college cities have a combined average of 35. 8 new instances consistent with the day compared to 35. 6 for the SEC, beating all other leagues.
What are the two meetings planned to allow as many enthusiasts imaginable to participate in house games this fall?The SEC and the big 12.
“It’s dangerous,” says Thomas Huard, a leading clinical advisor at the Texas-based Campus Health Project. “This will create an extension. People don’t have social distance even if the seats are separated. You go to the bathroom, hot dog station, beer stall.
“I think it’s a disaster. “
SEC stadiums will have an average capacity of 22. 8% this fall, or about 19,400 consistent with house play. The big 12 are at 21. 6%, or about 13,400, however, this number is likely to increase. Virginia, which works uns sealed for the season opener, with plans to potentially consistent with enthusiasts later in the year.
Of the 68 FBS systems that have announced capacity plans this fall, 17 will play with enthusiasts during at least the first house game of the season; of these, 10 plan to rething the factor as the season progresses, leaving the door open in some way. participation.
Forty-three of the 68 will have at least 20% capacity. He’s much taller than his professional brothers. Only six of the 32 NFL groups will open their season with enthusiasts present, and 3 of them, the Jaguars, Chiefs and Dolphins, will allow for at least 20% capacity.
In the ranks of schools, capatown does not seem to be decided through virus grades in the local community. For example, the state of Iowa predicts a 41% capatown, while Aimes has a daily infection rate of 61 cases. in any school city that plans to host games this fall. Georgia is expected to host more than 23,000 fans, seventh nationally, while Athens has a massive infection rate of 70 cases. The state of Florida will house 19,900 seats despite an infection rate of 64 in Tallahassee.
Meanwhile, due to state government restrictions, schools such as North Carolina, Wake Forest, and the state of North Carolina will play at least the first crowdless home games despite local virus rates of 10 or less. a rate of less than 14.
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“I introduced enthusiasts to be in stadiums,” says Michael Mina, an assistant professor of epidemiology at Harvard. “It would be a disaster. “
But everyone agrees.
“If you have a stadium and enthusiasts wear a mask, are 1. 80 meters away, and pay attention to unusual spaces and bathrooms, the threat can be greatly mitigated,” says Sankar Swaminathan, head of Utah’s Department of Infectious Diseases. Faculty of Medicine and member of the Advisory Committee of Pac-12 COVID-19. “I think in the right cases it would be handled, but it would require a lot of field and application. “
University systems have invested thousands of dollars in antivirus coverage for their stadiums, equipping sites with hand disinfection stations, prepackaged concession foods, and more workers in accordance with police protocols. Some have even used drones to cover seat surfaces with disinfectant. Chemicals.
Several systems have hired architecture companies to create reopening plans. Clemson, for example, has worked with the AECOM engineering corporation in California, and at least 10 other university systems have signed agreements with Kansas City-based design company Populous, says Scott Radecic. , one of the founders of the company. Radecic created a new department in the company this summer, College Think Tank, with the sole aim of developing customer readiness plans.
Both AECOM and Populous used PC simulation generation to generate fan habit models in a typical school game. This crowd modeling software tracked fan movements in virtual versions of fast locations, identifying the busiest areas. Simulated enthusiasts were surrounded by a six-foot bubble, their avatars converting color, from green to yellow and red, depending on the number of people interfering with their bubble. Companies have used role models to design reopening plans.
“One of the keys was how can we verify as many contacts as possible?”Radecic said: “Every stadium is unique. The rooms are of other widths and the seats are of other sizes. “
But even with those plans considered, there are doubts, will enthusiasts really obey?Last Thursday, at the opening of the FBS season, Southern Miss welcomed some 9,000 enthusiasts to her stadium for a imaginable defeat against southern Alabama. While the school encouraged enthusiasts to keep their mask throughout the game, this allowed them to get rid of sitting Much of it due to this, avoiding covering their faces without delay after sitting down.
A Populous survey earlier this summer found that 87% of school and school basketball enthusiasts and spectators need to return to live events, however, only 47% of them felt “comfortable” to return, according to the survey. respondents said they would comply with mask and distance regulations, says Sherri Privitera, who specializes in college projects in Populous. “It’s June, ” he said. We hope more people surveyed today will feel different. “
In South Carolina, athletics director Ray Tanner says he’s sure the 20,000 enthusiasts he’ll allow into Wiliams-Brice Stadium will stick to protocols. Why?” Because they need to watch football,” he says. They are very happy to see that sports take position and, if they stare, they will have to stick to the rules. “
But there are concerns, even those who helped create plans to reopen the stadium, such as Jon Niemuth, AECOM’s sporting director. “I’d love to stop by for a live musical occasion, but the biggest challenge for me: I have a child in high school and school, it’s people’s behavior,” she says. “It’s what others do that makes me anxious, not the environment. I have confidence in people’s ability to organize an occasion safely, but what I can’t is what everyone around me does. “
The network is also at stake. Some medical experts believe that stages will be compatible with spreaders of a virus that already affects a network or state. Take, for example, Alabama, which has the chance to produce some of America’s largest crowds this fall. Three of its five FBS systems supporting 36,000 (UAB), 20,400 (Alabama), and 17,500 (Auburn) gaming capabilities. Although its capacity is not expected to be maximum, the UAB consistent with supports 50% participation after moving its games to Legion Field through 71,600 seats.
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Meanwhile, games in Tuscaloosa and Auburn are expected to succeed at the 20% threshold, which can lead to problems. The State Department of Health is ready.
“This will call into question our formula, but we’ve been actively concerned since March,” says Karen Landers, the state’s fitness assistant. “When we have a case, and we will, we will do our best to locate contacts. “
The Alabama Department of Health recently added about a hundred contract trackers to bring the total to 400, landers said, advising game lovers to download the GuideSafe phone app to track their movements and then locate potential contacts. for all fans: “Don’t take off your masks,” Landers says.
The state of Alabama has the fifth highest infection rate in the United States and its border neighbor to the west ranks third. That said, Mississippi schools can host a quarter of their stadiums. “I’m worried about 25%, but I’m very pleased it’s not 50%,” says Thomas Dobbs, the state’s fitness director.
Like many states, Mississippi has restrictions on meetings – up to 20 people, Dobbs says – but a special executive order from the governor authorizes Ole Miss and the state of Mississippi to accommodate more than 15,000 people. These are home parties organized through those who cannot enter the game. “Being an intern and inviting friends . . . even if there are only 10 or less, it’s those social gatherings where we’ve had the most cases. “
Fanatics or not, school sports departments expect to lose millions of dollars due to attendance restrictions. The vast majority of donations are regularly similar to selling tickets at price, which increases their additional value.
Losses are significant. By restricting his capacity to 23% this year, Clemson will lose about $40 million, said athletic director Dan Radakovich. And he’s one of the lucky ones, having the merit of a giant for a stadium. Ross Bjork, Texas A sports director
In a summer interview, Bjork said a 25% or less participation style can be “devastating” for systems with smaller stadiums. While Ole Miss and Texas A
But everything is lost. Many subscription holders ask for a refund of their purchase, but allow the school to keep the cash in the form of a donation. It happened to Ole Miss, Carter says. ” He says a lot about people’s pastime for his institution,” says Chris Del Conte, UT’s athletic director.
This isn’t the only smart news for Del Conte. Texas occupies one of the positions of all college programs. Austin has an infection rate of only 5, the fourth among school cities with gambling schools this fall.
Across the country, however, this is not the case. Approximately part of the 77 groups planning to play this fall are in cities with an infection rate of 15 or more, which Harvard describes as “dangerous levels” of spread. to campus and after the Labor Day holiday, more peaks are expected, according to medical experts.
About this at Oxford . . .
“It’s a big challenge,” dobbs says. From a fitness perspective, there are many benefits to delaying. Would it have been bigger to delay? Yes, of course. Certainly, since this is something we have to pursue and it’s a priority, we’ll make sure we do it as safely as possible. “