Gray wolves prefer well-covered habitats located at a significant distance from people, their colonies, and roads. These personal tastes manifested themselves when they returned to Germany in the 21st century, when they recolonized the habitat from which they had disappeared two hundred years earlier. . Knowledge of habitat needs and related personal tastes also allows us to expect a long-term expansion of the existing diversity in Germany. In 2020, the Federal Agency for Nature Conservation (BfN), in collaboration with a clinical team from the Department of Ecological Dynamics of the Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research (Leibniz-IZW), published a study on suitable habitat modeling. In this study, the team calculated that there could be room for between 700 and 1,400 wolf territories in Germany’s natural areas. Scientists have now taken a closer look at and tested various spatio-temporal modelling approaches with respect to the other stages of recolonisation.
“There is reason to believe that the recolonisation of Germany by the grey wolf is not a so-called stationary process, but is characterised by changing framework conditions,” explains Prof Stephanie Kramer-Schadt, Head of the Department of Ecological Dynamics at the Leibniz-IZW. “Stationary processes in this case would mean that the wolves find the same or very similar environmental conditions in the regions into which they newly enter — and that they respond to the environmental conditions in the same way during all phases of the process.” Both assumptions appeared to be doubtful in the case of the recolonisation of Germany by the grey wolf. On the one hand, eastern Germany and the Rhine-Ruhr area in the west, for example, considerably differ in terms of the density of human infrastructure. On the other hand, wolves may show different or varying degrees of habitat preferences depending on whether they move in during the early, first phase or during the late, saturation phase of recolonisation.
“These questions are very applicable to the quality of predictions,” says first author Dr. Schulz. Aimara Planillo, scientist at the Kramer-Schadt Department of the IZW. ” If styles evolve based on the specific environmental situations of a specific region, they may underestimate the suitability of some other region that is very different from the one to which that style can also be applied. At the same time, styles created from knowledge of the early stages of recolonization would possibly underestimate the suitability of habitat in the past stages, because wolves in the early stages have flexible selection to decide on specific locations and habitats and therefore appear to be significantly more selective than in earlier stages. The reverse is also true: knowledge of past stages of recolonization may also recommend that wolves appear to be less selective, so the selectivity of their selection and habitat use in newly colonized spaces would most likely be underestimated. “
This research was carried out through a team led by Dr. Planillo and Professor Kramer-Schadt, in collaboration with scientists from LUPUS (the German Institute for Wolf Monitoring and Research), Eberswalde University for the development sustainable development, the Technical Universities of Dresden and Berlin, the Humboldt University of Berlin, the Federal Agency for Nature Conservation and the University of Veterinary Medicine in Vienna. They tested various modern-style strategies and algorithms with the knowledge of more than 20 years of tracking wolves in Germany, paying special attention to potential obstacles arising from the actual dynamics of the recolonization process. They developed styles based on a combination of radio telemetry and knowledge and tested their abilities to anticipate later stages of the colonization process. “The new styles showed our past paintings in two ways,” Planillo and Kramer-Schadt conclude. “On the one hand, our 2020 projections turned out to be largely accurate. Second, stylistic differences, which are rarely significant, are expectations that other spatial stages of the procedure will show that it is, in fact, not stationary” , state the authors. “When recolonizing an area, wolves always protect the most productive habitats first. Therefore, they seem to be significantly more sensitive to environmental variables. In later stages, neighboring second-class sites are colonized just as safely, as we could demonstrate. in many regions of East Germany. ” In this way, the team was able to validate their expectations and refine them in a more differentiated way. “Spatio-temporal projections of the expansion of species’ habitats should be carried out with great caution,” they conclude.
The most important factors for suitable habitats for wolves are proximity to forests or canopy-rich spaces and a long distance from roads. The most productive habitats for wolves are found in the north, northeast and south of Germany, while the poorest habitats are found further west. In southern Bavaria and in some forest areas in central Germany (in the Harz Mountains, as well as in Spessart, Odenwald and Rhön), at the time the team carried out the analysis, wolves were still unoccupied habitats. giant and high quality. The most likely thing is that the first wolves that arrive there will first settle in privileged places – which is already happening according to the latest knowledge – and over time they will colonize places of average quality. “Looking at our most recent models and similar reports from other European countries, where lower quality habitats are also frequently used when wolf densities are high, previous habitat models tend to be too conservative,” explains Kramer-Schadt. . “However, they provide an intelligent spatial prediction for the initial colonization of new habitats. “
Story Source:
Materials provided by Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research (IZW). Note: Content may be edited for style and length.
Registration Reference:
Stay informed with ScienceDaily’s free email newsletter, updated daily and weekly. Or view our many newsfeeds in your RSS reader:
Stay up-to-date with the latest news from ScienceDaily’s social media:
Tell us what you think of ScienceDaily — we welcome both positive and negative comments. Have any problems using the site? Questions?